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Paul

Focussed Model Discussion

Paul

This is the focused model discussion - please only post about the model output. 

For a more laid back, bantery model discussion please use the Cold hunt - models and banter thread.

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I’m still not wholly convinced it is a completely done deal for a follow on Easterly after the trough drops through us next week. There is just to much going on for me to be sure it will definitely be scuppered by too much energy riding over the top.

The volatility in initialisation data is probably way higher than normal in terms of difference between each 6 / 12 hours as upstream the US storm track continues to blaze a different path to expected.

I’m not sure why we are losing the amplification signal so quickly. I would’ve thought the downstream effects of the MJO and the Pacific activity would’ve carried on well into next week. 

Poor Arctic High modelling and the fact we are in the midst of an SSW should give us hope an 11th hour flip back is not totally impossible.I think the fine lines are still very much there, as shown by some 18z GEFS members...

All I am saying, is that the same fine lines that were very much apparent earlier in the week, when the models were showing the link between the ridge and the Arctic High as much cleaner, are still present. The difference being of course, there is very little time left to flip back. Probably 12Zs Sunday last chance saloon for a dramatic about turn.

1B6E7245-DBDA-4D45-BF85-86F9FA697082.thumb.png.b23051bb971420491395d7b977744d84.pngA85BC2BC-C722-43BE-B0F8-05E89674A354.thumb.png.97e360a2030c9668462ec790a0b054c3.png

FB153096-B266-4C6A-A329-F022C3C5BB05.thumb.png.fd2fc28ea0680caf64a9b2d1cdb6dc5b.png2CA308F8-EA68-4DE0-AF33-57C282CB3CCD.thumb.png.2a014b6f90b4f3daaa576820daa1b3f7.png

7286B67A-129E-4118-B4C9-20D93BB53FA4.thumb.png.240f8c64ea4667d96659b70689628f0d.png

And if not, plenty of chances to follow on, as we go through the second half of winter with this set up as it is.

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8 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I’m still not wholly convinced it is a completely done deal for a follow on Easterly after the trough drops through us next week. There is just to much going on for me to be sure it will definitely be scuppered by too much energy riding over the top.

The volatility in initialisation data is probably way higher than normal in terms of difference between each 6 / 12 hours as upstream the US storm track continues to blaze a different path to expected.

I’m not sure why we are losing the amplification signal so quickly. I would’ve thought the downstream effects of the MJO and the Pacific activity would’ve carried on well into next week. 

Poor Arctic High modelling and the fact we are in the midst of an SSW should give us hope an 11th hour flip back is not totally impossible.I think the fine lines are still very much there, as shown by some 18z GEFS members...

All I am saying, is that the same fine lines that were very much apparent earlier in the week, when the models were showing the link between the ridge and the Arctic High as much cleaner, are still present. The difference being of course, there is very little time left to flip back. Probably 12Zs Sunday last chance saloon for a dramatic about turn.

1B6E7245-DBDA-4D45-BF85-86F9FA697082.thumb.png.b23051bb971420491395d7b977744d84.pngA85BC2BC-C722-43BE-B0F8-05E89674A354.thumb.png.97e360a2030c9668462ec790a0b054c3.png

FB153096-B266-4C6A-A329-F022C3C5BB05.thumb.png.fd2fc28ea0680caf64a9b2d1cdb6dc5b.png2CA308F8-EA68-4DE0-AF33-57C282CB3CCD.thumb.png.2a014b6f90b4f3daaa576820daa1b3f7.png

7286B67A-129E-4118-B4C9-20D93BB53FA4.thumb.png.240f8c64ea4667d96659b70689628f0d.png

And if not, plenty of chances to follow on, as we go through the second half of winter with this set up as it is.

Agree 100%. Only Jan 20th and half of winter still to go. Very disrupted hemispheric pattern, strat reversal still ongoing and downwelling, and MJO coming back towards favourable phases. Much uncertainty on specifics, but overall pattern of Euro trough very much still the feature of the ensembles. Waiting a day or two while the atlantic blows itself out thanks to the storm over in the US wont alter the direction of travel. 

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41 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Agree 100%. Only Jan 20th and half of winter still to go. Very disrupted hemispheric pattern, strat reversal still ongoing and downwelling, and MJO coming back towards favourable phases. Much uncertainty on specifics, but overall pattern of Euro trough very much still the feature of the ensembles. Waiting a day or two while the atlantic blows itself out thanks to the storm over in the US wont alter the direction of travel. 

Clearly the models are still struggling to resolve the downwelling. Looking at the GFS zonal winds forecast (apologies, I know it's out of date, but having difficulty finding a new chart using the phone!) you have got to think that those negative anomalies will touchdown at some point. 

 

IMG_20190120_012150.jpg

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2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Give me hope ICON!

icon-0-102.png?20-00

IS that recent??

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Just now, Jackski4 said:

IS that recent??

That's the 00z, some potentially significant short term changes.

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2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

IS that recent??

Hot off the press...

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2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

That's the 00z, some potentially significant short term changes.

We live in hope! Let's pray the next set of runs pick up on it...

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2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

We live in hope! Let's pray the next set of runs pick up on it...

It doesn't quite make it this time but some significant short term changes there that could make things interesting again.

Down to the other models now.

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1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

It doesn't quite make it this time but some significant short term changes there that could make things interesting again.

Down to the other models now.

As far as I'm aware it was ICON that picked up on the changes against an Easterly a day or so ago then the other models followed suite.? So potentially if ICON wants to change its mind it could be game on for this week again. 

 

Don't mind me, I'm a complete novice just here for the ride!!

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3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

It doesn't quite make it this time but some significant short term changes there that could make things interesting again.

Down to the other models now.

It's picking up Greenland ridging at day 7 now too... Big change from last run. 

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With things still so finely balanced, any short term changes may still be enough to flip the charts back to an easterly, the very fact that the trend of moving away from the easterly has now reversed is very encouraging. Could we yet pull victory from the jaws of defeat - I would not be surprised, very pleased, but really not that surprised !  

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2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Only about an hour until the other models start to run, starting with the UKMO. I'm getting no sleep...

 

Fingers crossed.

Ukmo is out  UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

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Does icon run ensembles and if so does anyone have a link to them?

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2 hours ago, Jackski4 said:

As far as I'm aware it was ICON that picked up on the changes against an Easterly a day or so ago then the other models followed suite.? So potentially if ICON wants to change its mind it could be game on for this week again. 

 

Don't mind me, I'm a complete novice just here for the ride!!

I read your name as Jacksie first 😂 Answer is maybe, it has had a few 'wins' of that nature but hardly proved itself a true big hitter to join the big three. Call it Andy Murray compared to Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. That said, any of them could change their tune and clear the path to cold... Or not!

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As can be seen on the NH profile at T120 the gfs has deconstructed the trough on the western flank of the ridge and tracked the breakaway trough over Iceland. It continues to move east and by T144 has suppressed the ridge and started to push a front south east across the country with a shallow wave forming along it  After that it gets very messy as the battle between the energy exiting the eastern seaboard and the amplifying subtropical high pressure gets serious.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_25.thumb.png.d1607886a368dc97d953706898378eeb.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_29.thumb.png.501e7527b4264f052e3a567fc4ef362d.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_33.thumb.png.9b05b7ccca17a406bbd2a8610cfa3fc1.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_37.thumb.png.f7111c82fe9ef005b4500ada3fd39c25.png

Edited by knocker

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2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I read your name as Jacksie first 😂 Answer is maybe, it has had a few 'wins' of that nature but hardly proved itself a true big hitter to join the big three. Call it Andy Murray compared to Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. That said, any of them could change their tune and clear the path to cold... Or not!

So basically what you're saying is ICON has a dodgy hip!😂 thanks for the info, I guess we wait and see 

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Most encouraging thing I saw on any model run was that GFS starts to circulate North American lows well to the west of Greenland by end of next week and this starts to cut off the energy from disrupting developments in the North Atlantic to Scandinavia zone. Whether a good result will come of it remains to be seen but it is a necessary step. Generally speaking these model runs (00z) seem slightly improved, they all seem to be saying rather cold with one mild day around end of the week then into a colder second week. At this point, it's a halfway house for future upgrades. And we have the Tuesday event more or less locked in. It's by no means a return to the situation earlier in the month. We hoped to win the million but four or five hundred quid jackpots will have to do for now. 

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By t144 the ecm has the main upper trough north of the Britain with the latter in a fresh westerly with showers along western coasts  Twelve hours later the next waving front is swinging south east across the UK with some wet and windy weather as the subtropical high once more attempts to ridge in mid Atlantic. The ridging high briefly initiates a fresh northerly with some wintry showers as the trough is edged north east but then further systems track south east around it

t156.thumb.png.1845e9c8966224c07bc243a56abffeef.pngt174.thumb.png.7d3b71eb71fe1aa1e5d71441405f5e1c.pngt222.thumb.png.8908748b5f1b6b6261b11ed8cca4935e.png

Edited by knocker

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An improved ECM with plenty of PM shots which could easily turn into Easterlies, and a very good set of GEFS from the overnight run with loads of blocking later on. Still got time to make this winter a memorable one , it just needs to hurry up and happen.

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ECM and Ukmo end of next week showing the importance of where any wedges of high pressure sit the difference of a westerly airstream to a northerly. The winter of no proper northern blocking continues so short cold snaps at best e.g early 2003

CE87F4CD-8708-425A-ACB3-7E023312227C.jpeg

CBE4AAE2-9C2E-42B0-816C-7CF9852F4F53.jpeg

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A bit more consistency between ECM and GFS this morning and singing from a very similar hymnsheet at 240.  

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T96 on ecm a nice step back to colder regime.  The more stagnant cold we can get before the main diving PV segment from the NW the better.  So the full on easterly seemed too much of a bonus but also on that the total collapse with no NE or E flow also seemed wrong.  Much better this morning 

Lol the Navgem....hasn’t batted an eyelid through all this.

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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The ecm NH analysis at T240 is not a million miles away from the end of the det run, It then develops along similar lines to recently. Ergo, very amplified upstream with the Alaskan ridge/ vortex trough complex with a strong upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard around the renewed Bermuda high pressure towards the trough over the UK. But this is complicated by the ridge into eastern Greenland and the flow diverging around it thus a much weaker flow in the eastern Atlantic and colder air advecting into the now intensifying trough I'll leave surface analysis to the det runs but temps way below average

t240.thumb.png.5c72919e2db09be1fa3e91e3ee42ef41.png9-14.thumb.png.fdf95d46ff03de55fbedb65b9a5084ad.png

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