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Paul

This is the focused model discussion - please only post about the model output. 

For a more laid back, bantery model discussion please use the Cold hunt - models and banter thread.

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Outlook - a very familiar scenario. High amplification upstream with a very strong westerly flow exiting the eastern seaboard north of the Bermuda high, This backs sharply in the eastern atlantic as it hits the buffers of the very resilient European high pressure.  Thus the environment in the western Atlantic is very conducive to cyclogenesis and, as the evolution unfolds, it is all about how far east systems associated with this can progress with the UK being the battlefield. Last evening's NOAA gives a good overview of this

610day_03.thumb.gif.b6ca40402c15e0d7be7a67dfbccaf849.gif

The NH 500mb profile and the surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK chart

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.8593e2c883a9f3b585a1dda0a6f7c8f6.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.d5d4ad04a7475c976119aa30c4708e40.gif03.thumb.gif.efebbd653cc0201e6a6c33b5a07eb28a.gif

As can be seen still some cloud with mist/drizzle in the south east from the old front but this will slowly clear so much of the country will have a relatively clear, and mild, start to the day. But cloud and rain from the cold front associated with the low north west of Ireland is already effecting there and western Scotland..This will track east during the day effecting all areas, particularly Scotland, but becoming very light and patchy as it gets further east. The far south east.will remain dry on another mild day.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.d0043c1fbcb33c25df536f066695d84d.gifr08.thumb.png.d91c91b4254589da3f1a348ebc62c275.pngr12.thumb.png.b1a3ff365f92134c4518404fc471ad63.pngr15.thumb.png.026e3c06147697556275e1feaab5e722.pngr18.thumb.png.df11289f2177e7dd52c4e09e5c33e747.png

This evening some cloud and patchy rain will continue to effect the south east and this may linger  Whilst central England should stay dry but showery rain will effect western regions, and particularly Scotland, from further weak fronts associated with the aforementioned low which is edging closer to western Scotland. Another frost free morning on Monday

PPVG89.thumb.gif.6d799a80ecf41ed9d23017de0ffa154e.gifp04.thumb.png.8a539c53d78c2bff9af033f6c21c94de.pnggfs_t2min_c_uk2_6.thumb.png.7f47308b1cf598eca2427176379eea7f.png

During Monday the low is filling near the Hebrides and this, with the help of the occlusion. will bring blustery showers to the north west whilst down at the other end of the country the old cold front is getting a new lease of life with some heavier rain.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.a315d0e48cdf1aea9d05e3e7a503806c.gifp13.thumb.png.2d32955a9373fdc2e314f10516b0b161.pnggfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_8.thumb.png.b0e731f94721893e7ecdbc73623a41ef.png

Overnight Monday and through Tuesday changes are afoot as the low finally  moves away into Scandinavia, but a new frontal system is quickly on the scene  and rain, with increasing wind, will spread into the north west though Tuesday afternoon and evening, The south east will remain dry and less windy, And note the low that has appeared off the eastern seaboard

gfs_z500_vort_natl_12.thumb.png.cde2cfedc38d1cb8d80f4ab19713556d.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.2ac0b01e4eba40af131ffc54a230c45c.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.9fe0b6f45b6830f60ca5160e23be2a7c.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.1e8fa54ff262735ea092813f3c2069ee.pnggfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_12.thumb.png.89defeb25fe2655cd0893de709f5e655.png

By midday Wednesday this low has undergone explosive cyclogenesis whilst the low to west of Scotland has tracked north over Iceland leaving the top half of the country in warm sector conditions, thus cloudy with sporadic rain Still very mild in the south westerly flow

gfs_z500_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.f82792c0a85bbc2db81e019e65e29a22.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.b2706b35a83ce601735a7fa8f898dfd7.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.bc8e038b165c5de41b99dab36cb83e26.pnggfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_16.thumb.png.a194a34210bb9fbb286945989d063eb9.png

By Thursday the pattern mentioned at the beginning is starting to evolve as further amplification occurs and this initiates some quite intense WAA into north west Europe

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.2a6aca23a66a6fed582cef382767d069.pnggfs_t850a_natl_19.thumb.png.79c6be5353d992a9a514541d7b72728f.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.7275399514f7336176759a43128197ac.gif

Edited by knocker
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Moving forward with the gfs and the opening comments from the above post more or less covers it. All about energy flows and subtle, or not, changes to the pressure distribution, and the high pressure is ahead on points by day ten. Thus generally dry with temps above average but perhaps cooling a tad. As ever the position of the surface high is paramount regarding this

gfs_z500_vort_natl_25.thumb.png.5121b658b0b2210989df4ef26534bbd7.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_33.thumb.png.ca938e66069ddc35b5e80cb259cfd1d6.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_41.thumb.png.de159035d395dccb8575b378bdb9238f.png

 

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In the 5-10 period the ecm has the European high pressure strengthening causing the upper troughs to deconstruct in mid Atlantic  Thus by the end of the run the high cell is over the UK along with a ridiculously warm airmass

r144.thumb.png.a51ef8f07d4f130aedbb2d870ba5a535.pngt192.thumb.png.7ec3fa1bdce506ae1506b0829a10fde7.pngt240.thumb.png.3c36cc10c54011b8289eb650d37d7480.png

index.thumb.png.822dff7d921d45bb6304d63043170d19.png

Edited by knocker
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Looking at the EPS it would appear that another key element of the ecm this morning is the movement of the vortex lobe subsequent the cold plunge down western north America. Ending over N. Russia and a east European trough which eventually leads to a less amplified Atlantic/European sector.

t156.thumb.png.c72ee641a38ec757b17d1a58c8a8fa83.pngt258.thumb.png.1b25064d74996f19f7a3ce25841a035c.png

I can see a lot of young Sidneys cavorting in the woods this year

544-Eastern-Gray-Squirrels-eating-in-EGSQ1-cage-092811-KM.thumb.jpg.eb209f9c509401f66f37dffa3a08e35c.jpg

Edited by knocker
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Most of the rain on this front is over western Scotland and it's just cloud down here.

geo.thumb.JPG.5199bd80758f24a7e245408cc57807b0.JPG

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To briefly digress for a moment with this snippet from the Siberian Times.

This Kamchatka sea lion relaxing in the sun signals that spring must be on its way... picture credit Ph_Vanifatov

I must admit I did breath a sigh of relief because when I first glanced at it I thought it was a 'coldie' that had given up the ghost 😉

104235749_DzmnqI8UUAAnfoD.jpglarge.thumb.jpg.b2532fdfb2eec4e0eb3b52a8a5c77ef8.jpg

Edited by knocker
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Prior to the warm end to the week on Wednesday there is deep low 937mb (this been covered previously) in mid Atlantic with the UK in a warm, shower ysouth  westerly.. There follows some quite abrupt amplification which initiates a plume of warm air over the UK on Friday. Temps could possible reach the high teens in some places

gfs_z500_vort_natl_14.thumb.png.2dbcc4d33dca8f994c9331b03674e2ae.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_22.thumb.png.6b710fb580522441df8ccffa4a8827aa.pnggfs_thickness_natl_22.thumb.png.d6fb0965f01d340d69f838d3c0ffe384.png

The high pressure consolidates over the weekend but the gfs has a small upper feature wandering up from the south on Sunday?

gfs_z500_vort_eur_29.thumb.png.19113a4691075a0ef304c2ec4d580e21.pnggfs_thickness_eur_29.thumb.png.6ad579b1e708f7c338d237d64aa65beb.png

Edited by knocker
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The GEFS mean anomaly heading the way of the EPS with the ridge weakening portending more of a WSW flow over the UK and becoming more unsettled although temps maybe still a tad above average.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.2730a19e8da37e5badee40d6374bb457.png

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A little bit of a cool off in week 2 as the warmth from the far south eases with more of an Atlantic influence showing as the upper flow veers towards more of south west to west as the high becomes less amplified.

ECM mean for days 5/10

EDH1-120.thumb.gif.344a19187f96733fe5c1847cfe132f99.gifEDH1-240.thumb.gif.06d7eedbd66b11fddf6f836f4f218688.gif

A look at the 2m temperature gefs anomalies for 5 day means from day 1-5 and then 10-14 show the cool off

gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_1.thumb.png.da2e6331e6838a8dbd0b2b74ee676510.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_10.thumb.png.3994255002a6a53ef14a3662e550f2b4.png

The overall picture though still shows mild for the next 2 weeks with much of any rainfall more likely over western and northern fringes on the periphery of the high.

No real change to the polar profile with low heights remaining steadfast to our north right to the end of the Winter quarter.A pretty uneventful mild and quiet period set to bring the curtain down on a pretty nondescript "cold" season.

Edited by phil nw.
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3 hours ago, knocker said:

The GEFS mean anomaly heading the way of the EPS with the ridge weakening portending more of a WSW flow over the UK and becoming more unsettled although temps maybe still a tad above average.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.2730a19e8da37e5badee40d6374bb457.png

And the EPS continues to indicate similar

index.thumb.png.adc529dfff39afc615ee6d824f631406.png

Edited by knocker

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

And the EPS continues to indicate similar

index.thumb.png.adc529dfff39afc615ee6d824f631406.png

The ridge has shown signs of lessening a few days ago, only to come back again ....... I wonder if later week 2 will indeed see its demise ....

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Another senior moment. I've posted this morning's witherings in the wrong thread so if any mods are around could they do the honours. Ta

Edited by knocker
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To continue with the gfs in the right thread

Through the first  half of next week a further deep low swings into the Atlantic but with the high pressure getting some renewed vigor  the UK stays dry and very warm but some rain may creep into the north west from time to time. But by Thursday there are signs that the blocking ridge may be on the wane.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_25.thumb.png.51cce7d37e8ab8ab59e888dff1ea48b6.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_33.thumb.png.15e0fad73314145477836e84dc104cef.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_41.thumb.png.ae9663a2b2dc8587f0c709de7ef26bbb.png

And the GEFS ext mean anomaly not adverse to this

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.08b959be30465cc6f8389f2ede54f30b.png

Edited by knocker

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The ecm builds the high cell over the UK at the beginning of next week but by the end of the run the ridge is under pressure

t174.thumb.png.60fc05e3292bf1e0d14d697089838ee9.pngt240.thumb.png.c757d7655e545d890c43fa57ad780e37.pngjet.thumb.png.61b91df4928802378cc81df43ecb7875.png

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