Focussed Model Discussion

[knocker]

The temps not too shabby at 1400

 

[knocker]

One thing one can say is that the Atlantic is not inactive The intense upper trough spins up some vrery active and deep surface lows next week. including the weekend, according to the gfs

Edited February 14, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm also singing from the same song sheet which is no great surprise. A lot of energy swishing about in the Atlantic and it's all about distribution of same and the effect on the ridge which subsequently determines the position of the surface high cell. This will no doubt adjust from run the run given the effect of minor adjustments to the distribution at a relatively early stage

[knocker]

There would appear to be no significant movement from the ext EPS anomaly this evening/.

One of the key elements remains the continued strong amplification upstream of the Alaska ridge and the Canadian vortex/trough ensuring a very strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard around the Atlantic trough, The flow does back in the eastern Atlantic courtesy of the European ridge (which is weakly attempting to branch north west into Greenland)) but it has quite an affinity with the Franz Joseph vortex lobe and trough which, to my simplistic way of thinking, rather restricts any mayor movement of the ridge Thus the surface high should remain in close proximity to the UK

[knocker]

Max temps with SYNOPS today/ 16.1C at Bala

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

[knocker]

According to this morning's gfs the main story of next week starts tomorrow and continues through Tuesday as two upper troughs evolve out of the North Canadian vortex and  track east over Newfoundland into the Atlantic.

These then phase together and the foundation is now in place for the evolution from the middle of next week which is essentially  an upper trough dominating the Atlantic, with a myriad of  surface systems swanning around including some quite intense extra tropical cyclones, interacting with the very resilient block over western Europe.

Essentially this remains the story through the rest of the week and the weekend with the enery and troughs slowly gaining some traction. The detail of this evolution id of course subject to change and inter model differences

Edited February 15, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

A quick look at today through the weekend starting with the 0600 analysis and UK chart and the 850mb temp and wind streams

As can be seen,frosty with mist/fog in many places in central and southern areas but once this slowly clears it will be a fine day in most areas. But by late afternoon cloud and rain will effect north/west and western areas as a wave that has formed on the front to the west tracks north east to be over northern Scotland by midnight. The rain will spread east though tonight becoming quite heavy and windy in Scotland for a time whilst the south east remains dry with fog patches forming once again

Through Saturday the cold front moves slowly down the country but is weakening so it will be a cloudy with patchy drizzle affair for much of the south but brighter in the north behind it with perhaps the odd shower, Still mild if not quite as warm as today.

Over Saturday night and through Sunday the complex low pressure area to the west edges north and a cold front associated with it makes some headway east to effect western regions. So very much of a west/east split on Sunday with patchy rain and quite breezy for the former whilst remaining relatively sunny and dry in the east. continuing mild.

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Predictable the ecm has a  different interpretation of the battle between the trough/block and the energy distribution

[knocker]

The ext EPS mean is looking to slowly weaken the block, courtesy to some extent of the Atlantic/ Franz Joseph link.  Possibly then becoming more unsettled with temps near average

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The midday MODIS indicating another grand day, apart from N. Ireland and western Scotland, with some stratus around. Similar to yesterday morning which I spent on Hayle Towans looking out over St Ives Bay. Enjoying this stunning vista, on what was a very warm day for Feb. I was forcibly reminded that more widespread counseling  should be available on the NHS to those lost souls who are desperate for the return of cold and damp conditions

[knocker]

Temp 16C in north Wales at 1300. Not sure what station that is, could be Rhyl

[knocker]

A clear and sunny end of the day for most places but some cloud and rain will effect western Scotland late afternoon followed by N. Ireland quite quickly.This is associated with a shallow wave on the cold front, just west of Ireland at midday, tracking north east to be near Bergen by 0600. This will bring a brief period of heavier rain over Scotland and cloud and patchy rain will effect most western areas through the night as the weakening cold front tracks south east Much of the south will remain dry but fog patches and stratus could be a problem by morning/ Fairly breezy so frost not a problem

Edited February 15, 2019 by knocker

[phil nw.]

UkMO and GFS 12z runs look to be repeating the 500 hPa pattern next week after some Atlantic interference over the weekend.

Day 6

The return of the Euro high with energy still spilling off the Canadian trough into Mid-Atlantic advecting more sub-tropical air northwards over w.Europe and the UK.Away from the north west it looks another largely dry and mild week with more sunshine and afternoon temperatures well into the teens again.

[knocker]

By 1200 Tuesday a front associated with the low south west of Iceland is approaching Ireland ready to cross the north of the country overnight and through Wednesday  And to the west another low is undergoing explosive cyclgenesis as it tracks into the Atlantic along the southern flank of the upper trough Over the next 48 hours this intense storm tracks NE then north to be south east of the tip of Greenland. courtesy the strength of the ridge over western Europe

The upper trough continues to dominate the Atlantic from there until the following Monday but in the main the ridge remains sreadfast

Not a good week to be on OWS

Edited February 15, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Not much to add with the ecm that hasn't been said before. Massive amount of energy to the west and the resilient block very much at odds. Illustrated very well here by the intense thermal gradient Not something you see that often in the Atlantic in that direction

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

SYNOPS max temps

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

[knocker]

+8.4°C measured in Rauma at 00 UTC (!) today is the highest temperature in Finland for the date in at least 60 years.

[knocker]

The 500mb NH profile and the surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK surface chart

A mild and cloudy start to the day, particularly in the south where there is a lot of Stratus and mist/fog, as the weak cold front stalls. Some showers in the Scotland now that the wave has tracked north east. During the day  It will remain generally cloudy over England and Wales today, with some patchy drizzle moving north, as a wave that has formed on the front tracks north into Ireland returning the front as a weak warm front. Meanwhile the complex area of low pressure has deepened to 967mb

Remaining generally cloudy this evening and overnight with still some patchy rain from the front over Scotland, and maybe bits and bobs of drizzle down western coasts, Ant clear spells wil be in the south east with some mist and fog. Mild with no frost

The cloud tends to break somewhat on Sunday and once the low Stratus and mist has cleared the south east, generally not a bad day and still mild. But a cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure area will move east and weaken during the day. Thus the belt of rain effecting N. Ireland and western Scotland at 0600 will tend to become very patchy as it moves east.

Over Sunday night through Monday the front clears into the North Sea and the trough moves move of Scotland as the subtropical high builds again to the west. Thus a generally fine day in England and Wales but frequent showers in Scotland and down western coasts.Still quite mild but temps down a notch

The ridge moves over the UK on Tuesday to give a generally fine day for most with temps still a tad above average but a new complex frontal system has arrived to the west of Ireland by midday Tuesday and the fronts will track north east bringing rain and quite strong winds to northern and western areas through Tuesday evening and Wednesday. Further to the south and east remaining dry and getting quite warm again. Meanwhile out to the west another low has undergone explosive cyclogenesis and is down to 945mb.

Edited February 16, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Continuing with the gfs. The intense low drifts north to be south east of Greenland by T144 and by this time the Atlantic is dominated by the upper trough with a mryiad of systems running around on the surface as the high pressure over Europe refuses to budge. This remains the case over the next 48 hours with a fronts managing to bring some rain and strong winds to the north as another intense low arrives in mid Atlantic

And all of this results in Exceptional WAA into Europe

Edited February 16, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The overall evolution of the ecm post T144 is not dissimilar to the gfs with the core of the high pressure to the south east of the UK by the end of the run

[knocker]

An indication of how exceptional this current pattern is in NW Europe

H/t Mika Rantanen

Exceptionally warm airmass in Finland: +8.2°C at 850 hPa in Jokioinen is the 4th highest airmass temperature ever measured in February in Finland.

[knocker]

The 1400 UK chart

[knocker]

Explosive cyclogenesis near the left exit of the jet with a streak above 200kts

And again?

 

Edited February 16, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The ext GEFS mean anomaly highlights once again the amplification upstream vis the Alaskan ridge/vortex trough and the the very strong westerly flow exiting the eastern seaboard. This backs in the eastern Atlantic, courtesy of the European subtropical high as it connects to the Franz Joseph trough. Thus remaining generally fry over the UK, with the surface high cell likely in close attendance, with temps still a tad above average, but perhaps leaning more towards a NW/SE split

Edited February 16, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

A much weaker European ridge this evening with the ext EPS mean