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Paul

Focussed Model Discussion

Paul

This is the focused model discussion - please only post about the model output. 

For a more laid back, bantery model discussion please use the Cold hunt - models and banter thread.

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This is a sister thread to the looser Cold hunt - models and banter thread, and is a stricter, more focused and generally more in depth model discussion. 

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The team will moderate this thread to keep it on topic and focused on the models. Please only post model related discussion in here.

You are welcome and encouraged to cross-post on this thread and the models/banter thread. 

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
GFS
GFS FV3 (Para)
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met-Office
Fax
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Global Jet Stream
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I'm afraid the pub run shows little difference in the Gin corridor. However, it shows enough to make me watch the next few frames. I was hoping the ICON was going to lead the way. It's very early in the run, but I'm not hopeful of it following the ICON at this stage, we'd have needed earlier pressure changes.

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18z, the Icelandic LP at 138h forces the Azores to ridge eastwards underneath Scandinavia, similar scenario to the ECM if I'm not mistaken. 

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180h another LP at 980mb West of Ireland will mess things more. Possible Easterly set up after it slides? Nope, it's moving NE. 

gfs-0-198.png?18

Edited by Empire Of Snow

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2 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

180h another LP at 980mb West of Ireland will mess things more. Possible Easterly set up after it slides? 

It's not very clean, you could be right though. The NWP are all over the place at 72-96. I mean more than the usual subtle changes. Usually happens during SSW's but they normally converge at 96-120. This is the worst I've ever seen for our locality on the planet...

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7 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

180h another LP at 980mb West of Ireland will mess things more. Possible Easterly set up after it slides? Nope, it's moving NE. 

gfs-0-198.png?18

Massive ridge is about to be thrown up at 228 hours

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Looks like a link up is about to happen in FI between Atlantic and Arctic high.

 

Screenshot 2019-01-19 at 22.34.41.png

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6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Looks like a link up is about to happen in FI between Atlantic and Arctic high.

 

Screenshot 2019-01-19 at 22.34.41.png

Squeezed out on this run

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1 minute ago, matty40s said:

The USA weather bloggers and forecasters seem very miffed that the storm seems to be moving more to the NW than forecast. .....this is playing directly into our hands, the ECM wasn't expecting this.

Do you have any links you can provide?

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3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

The USA weather bloggers and forecasters seem very miffed that the storm seems to be moving more to the NW than forecast. .....this is playing directly into our hands, the ECM wasn't expecting this.

‘‘Tis interesting but what does that mean for us please, for those who still hope for colder conditions would we want the storm further NW?

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I Alas, I think I hit caught up with the prospect of having some cold at all, and perhaps lost a bit of balance in my assessments. I hope I learn. Will I ever ;)

Looking at GFS 276+ i suspect you + all of us never will.

 

gfs-0-276.png

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Very few easterlies in the GEFS rolling out (now at 150 hours). The GFSP is bringing in a westerly by 114 hours. I think the good ship 'easterly' is about to sink below the waves. The band is still playing on the bridge (NAVGEM, JMA the odd GEFS) but they are expected to rush to the lifeboats very soon. 

Still, not to worry we can do it all again in...yes you guessed it...….10 days time!! :oldrofl:

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2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Key difference beteeen the potential by late next weekend onward and that for the week ahead?

This coming weeks’ requires a precise coming together of events to bring more than transient notably cold weather to the UK, but the week after’s requires that to prevent such a thing.

 

This being as the SSW impacts become dominant hemisphere-wide instead of regionally.

 

That being said - given the positioning of the lower stratospheric ridge, I feel it’s unlucky not to get at least a brief shot of deep level cold from the east this coming week. So I’m hesitant to draw a line under that chapter just yet.

I see Fergie is of similar mind 🙂.

He and MetO are right to keep emphasising the cold and snow theme toward end of Jan and on into Feb; the HLB signals for that dwarf anything we’ve seen for the week ahead.

👍

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15 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

However, this shift over the past 2-3 days illustrates that the models are only approximately catching the full reality of the here and now part of the run, which means the medium term and longer term portions are almost certain to bust badly.

 Would lay a bet that either the 00z or 12z model suite swings back to the cold end of the spectrum and the cold will then be closer to reliable time frame. We'll see about that one. 

I think you may be right. Looking at previous MJO forecasts, we were originally looking at an emergence into late phase 4 then quickly through to phase 6. One of the things that has happened over recent days is that it is now forecast to emerge towards the start of phase 4. This then delays the extra kick towards blocking that may have provided what we needed to land the blocking required. 

With the SSW the signal is there for blocking in northern latitudes, but the key for us is getting it in the right place. The (probable) failed easterly required threading through the eye of a needle and, as so often, this didn't work out.

But, background drivers are moving more in our favour, so it may be that we are looking at threading the eye of the needle to not get a colder outcome going forward. This may not be picked up on the models quite so clearly well in advance as there are clearly struggles with a pattern of background signals which have rarely been modelled before.

Plenty of interest, and I definitely feel that we won't have to wait too long. In the meantime there is still plenty of interest in the pattern over the next few days.

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Ok so my general analysis looking at all the ensemble data from the 12z suite is this:

1: Easterly is done for in all probability, stil a chance the blocing high holds for longer than planned, but actually not sure its really going to benefit us and a clean break will probsably allow phase 2 onwards a chance.

2: A portion of the PV lobe over Canada starts to get elongated and relocates SE towards NW Europe (roughly) ariund 216hrs. Possible cold WNW/NW flow, though how cold is still somewhat dependant on just how much cold air comes withthe PV.as it stretches out. I'd suggest marginal snow events quite likely and watch out for possible higher levels of storminess as well, especially from any secondary lows that come in on the southern flank, could fire up quite fast.

3: Upper high forms over Greenland some point between 180-240hrs and helps to shove the upper low set-up to the SE. Should develop into quite a good set-up aloft, may not be ultra robust but it will do the job and the Azores High should help to keep propping up the pattern and keep it pretty stable. I would think for now northerly to maybe NE most favoured. If we are lucky that could lock into quite a significant pattern that holds for a time.

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45 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I've had an evening of reflection (as you do! 🙂 ), checking the end again, checking the ensembles, and, to my surprise and maybe anyone who has read my posts this week... I don't think the ECM ensembles have been massively wrong at all this week. Yes really. They've made a error with the placement of the low over Europe. But there will be a very short easterly, and the whole sinking trough, followed by minor ridge, followed by another sinking trough - well that was always the pattern. I think two things have happened. First, the fact that uppers were programmed to be minus 5C or below was misinterpreted (I'm including myself here). Uppers of this level on a mean chart do not represent extended cold. You need minus 7 or 8 on a consistent basis for that. Minus 5C generally results in periods of cold interspersed with less cold periods. Second, the Scandi High was a red herring. It never showed as a strong option on the ensembles (1030mb mean is my usual benchmark). Alas, I think I got caught up with the prospect of having some cold at all, and perhaps lost a bit of balance in my assessments. I hope I learn. Will I ever

The ridge pushing in by the flattening of the flow in the mid term was not forecast by the ens mean and anomolys  ......it shoud have stayed more amplified to to the nw and is flattened would have toppled more into scandi .... we are certainly missing some amplification from the ec model on verification ...............

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