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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

    Is that max temp or min? o.O

    MAX ?

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    The Para is going a different route with a northerly at 228, and it's still looking very cold

    image.thumb.png.66579223b835e0bf61b3db888b209b11.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    I think we’ll run with “Trend setter” 

    15FE4C0C-CE48-459B-A4A5-DBDD710645ED.thumb.gif.006837f732c7754bc8ecdbdcaaa81ced.gif

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes although i is a big outlier for the part of the run where its a real stonker!!

    That is very true, Feb?

    I might start chanting 'we want snow' if this roller coaster of a winter carries on!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    GFS ensembles are a complete mess again.

    One big trend (and not for the best unfrotunatly) is to refuse the PV again in a position where it makes any major ridging like the 18z GFS very difficult. If anything the GFS has become entrenched in that position on the 18z GFS suite. Still plenty of cold runs, and some very cold, but there are a few that make a real mess of the northern blocking and revert back +VE AO/NAO pattern pretty sharply. Unrealistically quickly if you ask me.

    EDIT- GFS ensembles has got form for being way too quick to shift these sorts of set-ups as well...

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    GFS ensembles are a complete mess again.

    One big trend (and not for the best unfrotunatly) is to refuse the PV again in a position where it makes any major ridging like the 18z GFS very difficult. If anything the GFS has become entrenched in that position on the 18z GFS suite. Still plenty of cold runs, and some very cold, but there are a few that make a real mess of the northern blocking and revert back +VE AO/NAO pattern pretty sharply. Unrealistically quickly if you ask me.

    EDIT- GFS ensembles has got form for being way too quick to shift these sorts of set-ups as well...

    The potential Easterly does look a bit of a long slog to achieve on the GEFS suite in FI, looks like it would be just out of reach due to the PV and the cold might not reach us - just hoping the MO 16-30 does'nt back off the idea.

    Although the EPS are showing a few insane runs

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The potential Easterly does look a bit of a long slog to achieve on the GEFS suite in FI, looks like it would be just out of reach due to the PV and the cold might not reach us - just hoping the MO 16-30 does'nt back off the idea.

    Although the EPS are showing a few insane runs

    Today has proved me dislike for a nwly...

    We need an easterly or north easterly here...with that in mind i hope to see a change on tomorrows runs..

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Today has proved me dislike for a nwly...

    We need an easterly or north easterly here...with that in mind i hope to see a change on tomorrows runs..

    Yes, sliders are ok but they always seem to be too far NE (rain) or too far SW (no precipitation at all). too risky for me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Today has proved me dislike for a nwly...

    We need an easterly or north easterly here...with that in mind i hope to see a change on tomorrows runs..

    I did great, I assumed u would have as well ... im not sure how close you are to the coast. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, BlackburnChris said:

    I did great, I assumed u would have as well ... im not sure how close you are to the coast. 

    Quite a bit further from the coast than Blackburn..

    For some reason the showers always seem to die a death before hitting Oldham, i can only assume its the hills..

    Glad you did well though Chris ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Today has proved me dislike for a nwly...

    We need an easterly or north easterly here...with that in mind i hope to see a change on tomorrows runs..

    Ditto, hence my excitement levels increasing with that GFS op anything from the E / NE and I will be jumping for joy ? (and possibly digging out)

    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, sliders are ok but they always seem to be too far NE (rain) or too far SW (no precipitation at all). too risky for me.

    A slider similar to this kind of thing would be pretty good ( I agree they often carry a fine line / boundary between wintry heaven and rainy misery) anim_asz5.thumb.gif.2a6222f1f0fe3bb57bb3451fabbf039e.gif gens-16-2-264.thumb.png.c5b6ba430a28469c1b22e803eaaf876d.png lots to look out for / look forward to ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Quite a bit further from the coast than Blackburn..

    For some reason the showers always seem to die a death before hitting Oldham, i can only assume its the hills..

    Glad you did well though Chris ?

    They will always die a death with a NW flow - we are sheltered by Rossendale, its only when the wind switches WNW that we get belted, but its unusual to not have a mild sector in that scenario so its always rain!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    1 hour ago, Stormeh said:

    Uppers are marginal

    gfs-1-264.thumb.png.d9fe48974ae77e8c7e1e06b2fa2a687b.png

    ??

    Tell me about it! You need -16*C 850 hPa’s for snow from an Easterly, not -15*C. ? Sleety rain at best for the tallest mountains!... ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
    19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Quite a bit further from the coast than Blackburn..

    For some reason the showers always seem to die a death before hitting Oldham, i can only assume its the hills..

    Glad you did well though Chris ?

    I remember the pain!  

    WNW can do it, but often marginal off Irish Sea. NW and showers break up on West Pennine Moors, NNW filters down the Cheshire gap into Shropshire! 

    Fingers crossed you get your Beasterly. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    6 minutes ago, Selliso said:

    I remember the pain!  

    WNW can do it, but often marginal off Irish Sea. NW and showers break up on West Pennine Moors, NNW filters down the Cheshire gap into Shropshire! 

    Fingers crossed you get your Beasterly. 

    Thank you ?

    I don't want to take the thread off track but all my childhood snow events in the 70s and 80s revolved around cold east winds, last march was a prime example of why my location does well from easterlies..

    With that in mind, i'm hanging onto an easterly showing up soon, although if honest, i'm losing hope at this juncture, its been a shocker this winter for this locale, up there with the worst.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Great model outputs today and good to here that some of you have had snow

    for me though i will have to keep these on my sledge until DAY 10?

    images.thumb.jpg.44675e7855c60e6b3a2f91eee3519b85.jpg

    latest on the cpc 8-14 has been rock solid on the pattern over the last few days with trough into Europe with height's into Greenland and gaining is that massive Alaskan ridge into the pole too,also height's showing in Scandi now and could be a pecurser as to an easterly down the line

    814day_03.thumb.gif.22793342ba8c246816b49ca6b5d5069a.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.7892359148d031b1c7fbca3cfa1a1a5e.png

    AO still showing a tanking,not surprised with all the height's into the pole

    ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.79bd994e26bbab8d88e4cb786577daed.gif

    when will i take my wheels off my sledge!

    i will let you know?

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
    59 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Thank you ?

    I don't want to take the thread off track but all my childhood snow events in the 70s and 80s revolved around cold east winds, last march was a prime example of why my location does well from easterlies..

    With that in mind, i'm hanging onto an easterly showing up soon, although if honest, i'm losing hope at this juncture, its been a shocker this winter for this locale, up there with the worst.

    Ditto, east all the way. Tbh I had a horrible feeling of deja vue when we had that spectacular Halloween snow on 27th Oct this year, as the same thing happened on Guy Fawkes 2015 and background signals looked primed that year also for a special winter and apart from 2 days in December, got nowt more.

    Dont think we had an SSW that year so at least that similarity is a bust. 2015 below.

    P61109-075632.jpg

    20181027_113328.jpg

    Edited by geordiekev
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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    Today has proved me dislike for a nwly...

    We need an easterly or north easterly here...with that in mind i hope to see a change on tomorrows runs.

    East is the best direction for us all overall, Feb last years showers went all the way to the West coast and even headed into Ireland

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea

    Glad there's such optimism in here once again! Models looking very good. Hoping ecm catches up !!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    32 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    Glad there's such optimism in here once again! Models looking very good. Hoping ecm catches up !!

    I think my optimism is waning TBH..

    theres only so much chasing one can do..

    Might explain why im not posting too much..

    That said, i will be happy if the 00z runs are good.

    ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    I think my optimism is waning TBH..

    theres only so much chasing one can do..

    Might explain why im not posting too much..

    That said, i will be happy if the 00z runs are good.

    ?

    Half the thrill is in the chase! Models looking really exciting last night, let's hope the runs in a few hours are just as good. I won't be sleeping until I've seen them! GFS 00z in about an hour 

    Edited by Jackski4
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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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