Jump to content
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 12.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

Posted Images

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

As long as the majority cluster signals cold you are ok, they are tweaked to show different outcomes because of their low DEFINITION, 

Well partly and the fact that the initial input data is tweaked for the ensemble members (control excluded).

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Trom said:

Well partly and the fact that the initial input data is tweaked for the ensemble members (control excluded).

When i say OK, i don't mean its 100% going to verify of course, just that there is no panic at that point, i would rather have 35 showing cold, than 15 plus the op.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
Link to post
Share on other sites

There is considerable differences in the GFS ensembles even at 96hrs, indeed I'd say a slight majority now have a slight easterly influence  by 120hrs. Nothing too extreme but could be a snowy set-up for a time for the SE as that low sinks southwards.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Very good ens all round at the moment.

Seen a marked dip for Feb 1st enough times on them in recent days to make me think this is a trend, and could be a date to ring on the calendar.

Maybe as the date winter proper got going??

 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

giphy.gif

Just realised that if I’d have spent the same amount of hours doing overtime at work this winter that I’ve spent gawping at Siberian-sourced weather porn on the NW forum, I could have afforded a week in Lapland dressed in an elf costume throwing snowballs at Santa. 

Edited by supernova
  • Like 1
  • Haha 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

12z EC a mild outlier day 9 for London, makes sense looking at the milder SW flow then

FFB662F2-E749-41FB-929E-A1E47B1B8281.thumb.gif.7d2f202505ba048354dab49f72ab80e5.gifC98FFE85-5D87-4BAE-817F-B0EF8AB05ED5.thumb.png.26bf2685b82a2cdf66e3ff20ff36093f.png

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Bit of a pub special that! Cracking stuff and not the first time we’ve seen the gfs chuck that sort of run out in the low res over the past couple of days. It’s picking up on something for sure, let’s hope that’s the watered down version ????

That reminded me of march 2018 but with staying power!! 

How cold ???

35F8A01C-1906-4EE1-B949-B1FA6A2E6BFD.thumb.png.887fab45dd7ff3ed8038306c24c47a92.png

 

  • Like 7
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

When i say OK, i don't mean its 100% going to verify of course, just that there is no panic at that point, i would rather have 35 showing cold, than 15 plus the op.

I agree about the no panic it's just that I'd rather see a cold op supported by the ensembles rather than an operational that's at variance with it's ensembles.  Hopefully, you are correct and the ECM op moves into alignment with the ensembles.  My unease is also compounded by the fact that it's the ECM op that is so out of kilter with its ensembles and GFS output.

Another way of viewing it that the volatility caused by Trop/Strat interplay is having a major effect on the reliability of the model output and that higher definition compounds this uncertainty.  We did see all models struggle significantly with the quick trop impact last year.  This year's been a more normal SSW impact (i.e. slower) but we know it's impacting shortly. 

Fingers crossed.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Gfs op is the coldest member 3rd feb by a country mile. Outlier unfortunately 

Don’t be silly it’s the trend setter they will all follow in the next few days ?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CSC said:

That GFS 18z run, despite it being extraordinary, ITS NOT AN OUTLIER for most of the run!

Fantastic stuff that! Mean temperature beginning of February is below 1ºC all the way to the south coast!

Yes although i is a big outlier for the part of the run where its a real stonker!!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The 18z Op had -15c uppers over us, I'm not surprised it's a huge outlier!

That's one hell of a cross polar flow on the gfsp, the Strat split finally splitting the Trop Vortex too!

CF.thumb.png.cd108d46bbb97f08431803bb8adafb29.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...