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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Just now, snow freak said:

i certainly hope you are right.  although anything beyond 150 hrs is wishful thinking as far as the models go usually.

Oh yeah I wouldn't go beyond saying there is a very strong -ve NAO signal, the ECM ensembles are more onboard than the GFS, though that also does have the signal clear to see within its suite.

Things could go wrong in that set-up btw, like the upper troughs don't dig far enough south and we remain on the warm side of the jet instead, but I think its highly likely we are going to get really strong blocking which should make that less of a threat. Instead look for an Azores low and attacks from the SW on a fairly regular basis.

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8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

No need to worry about exact timing CC. 1947 was broadly a Feb/early March affair and down here last March (2018) was epic (in March terms) with temps of -2c at 2.00pm and powder snow depth of 6-8 ins on 2nd March, followed by other snow events during March.

It truly was epic, I still can't believe that actually happened. Especially when 5cm of wet snow is considered very decent down here.

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Evening all how many threads in here these days? Seems to be one for general model chat, one for serious model chat, one for light hearted model chat, one for whinge about the models chat...now I just got confused as where I should've posted this so I'll just leave it here ;) 

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4 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

It truly was epic, I still can't believe that actually happened. Especially when 5cm of wet snow is considered very decent down here.

FWIW the possibility is there for a month similar to this and Dec 2010. Its probably at the very extreme end of BA's envelope but its at least within the scope of what is possible. That is a utter rank outsider, but something to just keep in the back of the mind if we get lucky!

If we do get southerly tracking LPs and continental drifting, we probably only require -2/3C 850hpa to get snow, and maybe even -1C under a snowfield.

 

Edited by kold weather

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More threads than snowflakes sighted all winter lol   

 

Seriously though im glad they brought back a hunt cold/banter thread, we can but dream

 

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Latest BBC Online weather presentation about an hour ago going for a yawnfest of a week with average temps, active front on Tuesday with some Hill Snow and back edge cold undercutting wet snow to dampen the ground for most below 100m.

Other than that Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Let see how the charts look at T764 with Impending Blizzards back end of February.

Link Below to the Forecast in anyone can be bothered anymore 😃

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather - Presented by Nick Miller

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Well it certainly feels that way Paul. I think you've captured the mood of many on here.

I'm now hoping we do see a repeat of last year, with a late cold spell back end Feb into March. Off to Mexico in 10 days time for 10 days, so would welcome yet another delay, past early Feb into mid-Feb 😁

Nice, chilled out atmos in this thread tonite👍

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7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

FWIW the possibility is there for a month similar to this and Dec 2010. Its probably at the very extreme end of BA's envelope but its at least within the scope of what is possible.

If we do get southerly tracking LPs and continental drifting, we probably only require -2/3C 850hpa to get snow, and maybe even -1C under a snowfield.

 

My snow cravings just went up a notch.

Apologies if this is a 'will it snow IMBY' themed post but is Tuesday a write off for snow in the South? I'm getting the vibe that most think it will be an all rain event. Low resolution models still show snow right down to the south coast.

Edit: I guess the post from Paul sums that up, cheers.

Edited by MidnightSnow

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12 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Evening all how many threads in here these days? Seems to be one for general model chat, one for serious model chat, one for light hearted model chat, one for whinge about the models chat...now I just got confused as where I should've posted this so I'll just leave it here ;) 

125 including the models have gone Brexit... Clueless 

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1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

@TEITS Did the seagulls ever show any hint of an Easterly for next week? I know there was an old saying in that part of England.

@Fiona Robertson What signs are the horses currently giving off regarding our cold spell for Scotland that is approaching? 

@Bill .Farkin Which way are the grebes facing?

Plus I am hearing from a reliable source that it is going to snow in Carlisle on Tuesday. 

I am starting to think the questions above are the way forward regarding future weather as the ECM, GFS and UKMO daily output are making my brain melt! 🎅

 

 

Last I looked they were lying down snoring their heads off which is a sign that they're asleep.

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Ian Fergusson on Twitter hasn't ruled out the JMA Solution or ECM depending on this low in US or omething  along thoughs lines..Finely balanced.. So yes they do take JMA into consideration it seems

Edited by Dave Kightley

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6 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Ian Fergusson on Twitter hasn't ruled out the JMA Solution or ECM depending on this low in US or omething  along thoughs lines..Finely balanced.. So yes they do take JMA into consideration it seems

Ian mentioned JMA a couple of years ago as a model taken into consideration at Meto. Not a model to be dismissed, for sure.

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12 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Interesting change back from Icon👀

iconeu-0-102_htd3.png?5666

Wtf, you genuinely couldn't write it... 

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This place is quiet, I know it's early but can you all wake up and look at weather models with me please, I have no friends!

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9 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

This place is quiet, I know it's early but can you all wake up and look at weather models with me please, I have no friends!

Intersting gfs run predominantly a cold run but don't like the evolution of it if im being honest I reckon high pressure is going to move over the U.K bringing more of the way of South westerlies but hope I am wrong! P.S ICON has certainly upgraded overnight!

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32 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

This place is quiet, I know it's early but can you all wake up and look at weather models with me please, I have no friends!

Not much to comment on this morning, no change unfortunately... seems like no matter what we do we can’t rid ourselves of that stupid PV to our NW, that along with the most stubborn AZH I’ve ever seen.

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Not much to comment on this morning, no change unfortunately... seems like no matter what we do we can’t rid ourselves of that stupid PV to our NW, that along with the most stubborn AZH I’ve ever seen.

Is the ECM out yet?

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The GEFS are pretty damn good... We've been here before though. 

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Glad to see this thread back, I'll repeat what I said about 10 hours ago on another thread the current AO prog is very encouraging showing a dive to -3 in the coming days and -5 as we head into February which should encourage northern blocking,the current down slide in the models will change if the AO sticks to this current theme 

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8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The GEFS are pretty damn good... We've been here before though. 

Which time you looking at? I did have a look out to day 7/8 quite few with the low coming SE and ridging to our west, not buying it after this fail though.

 

@Jackski4 ECM comes out between 6-7am/pm mate

Edited by Weathizard

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6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

 

 

@Jackski4 ECM comes out between 6-7am/pm mate

Just enough time to make some food and cross my fingers then!

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Just an observation from imby. The GFS has been f-e-c-king appalling, ensemble suites and solutions constantly flip flopping. Just awful. ECM better but UKMO has been best this season. And didn't someone post some stats showing JMA tends to verify ahead of the goofus, behind UKMO and ECM? So can't be binned. Tl;dr version, look at UKMO for best accuracy of developments over Europe, just imho.

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49 minutes ago, Jake Strickland said:

Intersting gfs run predominantly a cold run but don't like the evolution of it if im being honest I reckon high pressure is going to move over the U.K bringing more of the way of South westerlies but hope I am wrong! P.S ICON has certainly upgraded overnight!

ICON looks not perfect but very promising to me, let's just hope other models agree with the trend. There's still some time to claim a victory for this week.

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