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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    That small low on the southern tip of Greenland has now gone on this run so its hard to place to much faith in op runs when small scale features are placed in different positions or disappear on the next run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Possibly, but i don't overly get concerned with OP runs when they are big outliers, as long as the GEFS have reasonable support for the EPS in the 144-240 range, i will be happy.

    The key thing with the ensembles is to watch the trend, if you start getting more and more members per run jumping ship and joining that outlier OP, then you 9/10 have a big problem, as we saw with the easterly.

    Still not too sure what to make from the 18z GFS. It looks ok to me, just a variation of the broad theme. Little shortwave feature extending from the upper low to our east may limit what is possible this run. but broadly looks fine.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
    17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Weatherman on BBC weather just said "No Easterly anytime soon "

    Indicated a Southerly jet stream with repeated sliders.

    Below average temperatures but not majorly below.

    Id have thought that anyone with enough interest in weather to be browsing this forum full of lunatics would be more than aware by now that the BBC don't know their a*se from their elbow 

     

    Edited by ChezWeather
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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Well the trough hasn’t dropped as far south as my lateral thoughts, but......

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    Posted
  • Location: Durham
  • Location: Durham
    6 minutes ago, CSC said:

    They also said that today will be a 'dry day for most' and ended up with a lot of the country seeing some snow showers...

    I wouldn't trust BBC walking my dog up the hill never mind the weather.

    Since they switched from METO to Meteogroup they have been nothing but a pile of tosh

    Not everybody saw those snowmaggedon type of snow showers today that delivered huge amounts of snow, up to a whopping 3 or 4 cms!!! ?

    The beeb have been fairly consistent and have not shown the wild swings in the forecasts that the cherry picked charts have been shown here this winter. Its worth keeping an eye on them to keep people's expectations grounded.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, kold weather said:

    The key thing with the ensembles is to watch the trend, if you start getting more and more members per run jumping ship and joining that outlier OP, then you 9/10 have a big problem, as we saw with the easterly.

    Still not too sure what to make from the 18z GFS. It looks ok to me, just a variation of the broad theme. Little shortwave feature extending from the upper low to our east may limit what is possible this run. but broadly looks fine.

    Yes, you always can sense it when there was a problem, last years Easterly, the dodgy op runs were few and far between and had little ens support, there was a mean Easterly from a long way out reeled all the way in without too many hiccups

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    I'll await a shortwave to appear in the morning outputs before i look at day 10 again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Well a slightly more convoluted way of getting into the cold spell and more risky (shortwave fun and games) but a pretty solid run coming up, indeed may turn into a really great run down the line ad the Arctic looks supportive this run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Not bad at all at 216.  Could we see a cross polar flow on this run (I know I'm asking for a lot!)

    image.thumb.png.0cc28867465f8f2428752669d10f9be1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Going to be another good FI. High pressure getting across the top of us pushing that low south

    576A0D98-D219-4A12-B382-903960D7BAA2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Well the trough hasn’t dropped as far south as my lateral thoughts, but......

    Its dropped just the right amount to give you a right tonking!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    There is that snowy set-up at 216hrs that the ECM ensembles have been highlighting for a few suites now, not too exceptional this run but decent snowfalls, probably 3-5 inches on that NE edge of the precip core would be my guess, but sbnbow extends the whole way south eventually.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Small steps forward...that’s what we want. If we wake up to -300c easterlies from Hawaii.....ignore the runs

     

    BFTP 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Oh yes please, incoming...

    image.thumb.png.0ed79400e34d75f789151984893a343d.png image.thumb.png.5b7ecc789b73560c49d8df052e543ef9.png

    Question for Kold weather - is this evolution akin to the ECM Control run you mentioned earlier?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its dropped just the right amount to give you a right tonking!

    Yes. Obviously not hallucinating as much as @bluearmy thought!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Got to say that the GFS 18z op looks very similar to a majority of the ECM ensembles around 240hrs, that's good news that despite some differences at the start, we end up at a similar place...

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    At 240 we have -10's across most of the country with -12's knocking on the door

    image.thumb.png.10369a82753356b80c28b4baffb78620.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    BCCF4C81-7A82-4F08-8035-A97C597C4BB6.thumb.jpeg.7bf561c60a71322b67cd9d3d43dd4ebd.jpeg

    needs no comment

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    Oh yes please, incoming...

    image.thumb.png.0ed79400e34d75f789151984893a343d.png image.thumb.png.5b7ecc789b73560c49d8df052e543ef9.png

    Question for Kold weather - is this evolution akin to the ECM Control run you mentioned earlier?

    Kinda, but instead the low blows up in a big way and does a anticlock-wise rotation through northern France then back into the SE, basically 36hrs of snow, but I'd guess its the same feature that the ECM ensembles are picking up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I don't like using that P word but the Gfs 18z is screaming wintry PPP...potential:crazy:❄️:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    In line with expectations. All we need do now is countdown to one of Nicks shortwave dramas. 

    gfsnh-0-240.png?18

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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