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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Comparison of jet stream flow

    12z

    4016C471-4433-48B7-AE7C-F8FBA0445510.thumb.jpeg.0b2193305806c9717ced69f0f77057c4.jpeg

    18z

    83C09B85-3960-4838-8082-87F5331C68E7.thumb.jpeg.7ab2ef7a5227aaf373fcdf8a69e168d7.jpeg

    ctritically the stronger and higher altitude Azores low pushes the displaced Azores high further northwards and hence the greater amplitude seen in the flow. Not bad so far 

    and to edit check out the jet over Scandinavia- weaker so two bonuses in one

    Edited by chionomaniac
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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Very interesting gFS so far and throwing yet another curveball, not a bad northerly actually by 114hrs. Our neck of the woods look REALLY sensitive to changes that would normally not cause the models issues.

    Certainly interesting, wonder how it will effect the pattern down the line. I tend to agree with Catacol, FI probably start somewhere between 96-120hrs at the moment, mad as that seems!

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    It's going to...…….. is it?

    gfsnh-0-114.thumb.png.cc079b5bbe9adec2940a2ea58382f1c3.png

    Thought I’d see it all until Catacol started frame by frame commentary tonight ? 

    the force is awakening 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    Big upgrade out to 102.  Very unusual situation unfolding here with FI around 72hrs so anything from here on in should be taken with a big pinch as salt. Just looking for growing trends really.

    image.thumb.png.2d21e340dd8f78bc48f0abaca1cd6d3e.png  image.thumb.png.ad6f7dee972f19b6ac1af5acf9748dbe.png

    A growing feature is the NW russian high ridging west, combined with azores heights wishing to ridge north - not quite able to see a link up just yet, but it would only take a shifting in the elongation of the PV and trough over NE Canada, and both features would have an easier time of joining hands. Alas a bit more amplification and a sharpened trough is needed to aid some WAA over west Greenland, might take two or three more attempts before more favourable developments over NE Canada allow this to happen combined with arctic heights.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I think the problem is the PV lobe wants to transfer east so hard going to get the easterly . The best perhaps is trough disruption se and engaging the colder air .

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    Cor - that was close.....left high and dry.....but things are a moving. Will be interesting to see if the trend grows tomorrow. We could yet have our block early next week.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    That is really rather close to again introducing a E flow, indeed the surface flow may well turn briefly easterly anyway. Interesting.

    Nick S, I think you are right, we are always battling against marco set-up right now.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Weatherman on BBC weather just said "No Easterly anytime soon "

    Indicated a Southerly jet stream with repeated sliders.

    Below average temperatures but not majorly below.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    I think the problem is the PV lobe wants to transfer east so hard going to get the easterly . The best perhaps is trough disruption se and engaging the colder air .

    With the pv going east would not be a short term pain with a longer term gain? Allowing room for the block in the nw and less chance of it being flattened. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, That ECM said:

    With the pv going east would not be a short term pain with a longer term gain? Allowing room for the block in the nw and less chance of it being flattened. 

    I want short term gain and long term gain !?

    I don’t mind as long as we don’t end up with the ECM solution.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
    2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Weatherman on BBC weather just said "No Easterly anytime soon "

    Indicated a Southerly jet stream with repeated sliders.

    Below average temperatures but not majorly below.

    So that means easterly next week then ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    So my lateral thinking on this run pushes the next slider south with a strong northerly, with the low dropping enough to get some kind of easterly whilst heights also build to the north west and the Siberian high wants to push west to join up.

     

    not much to ask for is it lol!

     

    unfortunately the gfs doesn’t think laterally

    Edited by chionomaniac
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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Weatherman on BBC weather just said "No Easterly anytime soon "

    Indicated a Southerly jet stream with repeated sliders.

    Below average temperatures but not majorly below.

    It’s still very early days yet, a fluid situation, plus I think someone said that they use slightly earlier data than what’s Been  shown now, plus it could still go t#ts up yet

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Just now, chionomaniac said:

    So my lateral thinking on this run pushes the next slider south with a strong northerly, with the low dropping enough to get some kind of easterly whilst heights also build to the north west and the Siberian high wants to push west to join up.

     

    not much to ask for is it lol!

    you really are suffering from sleep deprivation!   Hallucinating now ...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Weatherman on BBC weather just said "No Easterly anytime soon "

    Indicated a Southerly jet stream with repeated sliders.

    Below average temperatures but not majorly below.

    Rapidly deleloping situation this, wouldn’t put much faith in them, especially the BBC forecast.

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    5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Weatherman on BBC weather just said "No Easterly anytime soon "

    Indicated a Southerly jet stream with repeated sliders.

    Below average temperatures but not majorly below.

    They also said that today will be a 'dry day for most' and ended up with a lot of the country seeing some snow showers...

    I wouldn't trust BBC walking my dog up the hill never mind the weather.

    Since they switched from METO to Meteogroup they have been nothing but a pile of tosh

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Just as i say the output looks good, i don't think this GFS run will be too good, i have put the mockers on it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    The Azores high just doing enough to keep the south less cold, but very good for the North this run!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Just as i say the output looks good, i don't think this GFS run will be too good, i have put the mockers on it!

    It seems to me Feb that the better start leads to less good later a bit like the ECM.

    But I’m in two minds here I’d rather grab what’s on offer and hope to squeeze out even more early improvements than be put through the nerve shedder of trying to get the block in a good position which the ECM showed could go wrong .

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    It seems to me Feb that the better start leads to less good later a bit like the ECM.

    But I’m in two minds here I’d rather grab what’s on offer and hope to squeeze out even more early improvements than be put through the nerve shedder of trying to get the block in a good position which the ECM showed could go wrong .

    Possibly, but i don't overly get concerned with OP runs when they are big outliers, as long as the GEFS have reasonable support for the EPS in the 144-240 range, i will be happy.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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