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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Just now, Singularity said:

    The main downwell from the strat has accelerated a bit in the output today. First time I’ve seen it do that as opposed to get delayed even further. Landing point middle of next week... models will likely remain very unreliable for a few more days yet.

    Which model ???.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Question: How do you know that downwelling into the trophosphere has ‘accelerated’? Is it purely based on model output? Thanks ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

    Upgrades as early as +72 on GFS

    Were going for Greenland already?? 

    12z

    Screenshot_20190122-215102.thumb.jpg.965da27365044490f30b0f8fc1e3e7f4.jpg

     

    18z

    Screenshot_20190122-215111.thumb.jpg.9f6e1c65bcfdf55981297743a1c8ee08.jpg

    Edited by ALL ABOARD
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

     

    Having read this thread I don’t know why there is such negativity about the ECM op. I reckon with a bit of lateral thinking then it oozes potential. The eps just confirms that lateral thinking.

     

    A bit of lateral thinking?!

    In all seriousness, only 1-2 runs that look like the ECM from the ECM and both deliver a very zonal flow by day 13. I think its pretty certain the ECM op follows those examplers given where it sits within its ensemble range. But the fact there is literally only 2 that I can find kind of speaks volumes as to the likelihood! (One GFS para run in the last 36hrs also pulled a similar track and looked dreadful by day-13 as well).

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Hmmm. Is that a stronger Azores trough, cut off low I see...

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Wow what the hell what a difference at just 78 hours!!i mean i would not be surprised to see cold come forward even more tomorrow!!anything could happen at the moment!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Glosea and ecm blocking from yesterday was pretty impressive. Looks like sliders until early feb then blocking potential begins.....

    Having read this thread I don’t know why there is such negativity about the ECM op. I reckon with a bit of lateral thinking then it oozes potential. The eps just confirms that lateral thinking.

    I wouldn’t quite put the snow shovels back in the loft yet.....

    Yep, not sure why the complaints, i thought we had blown it for a bit - in other words i thought we might still be looking in the extended for signals of UK snow events, but they are popping up with frequency and potency at ever shortening timeframes.

    EDIT : and not just for high ground in the North either

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    Just now, Catacol said:

    Hmm - signal growing stronger. Doubt it will happen this run....but is the atlantic balloon about to pop?

    Well that is an interesting signal, the thing is there is more volitilty out there that its quite possible a small feature crops up and changes things as early as 72hrs! Doesn't always have to be bad things that crop up!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    Interesting 18z so far. If those upgrades were magnified further tomorrow......

     

    Interesting the ENS clustering from the ECMWF shows the Op on top end for Dublin and lots of member keeping below the -6 line

     

    image.thumb.png.561cdaef1155773db86cc9ded5014f53.png

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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    Either the 18z GFS is going off on one or we are at the beginning of big upgrades in the medium term, the Russian high is also starting to pop up with increasing regulatory, I think we are knocking on the door of proper northern blocking 

    Screenshot_20190122-220022.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    image.thumb.png.c94ddd4218c7d96bbbb6ab66cca23f81.png T114 12Z

    image.thumb.png.f1fdfaa884cd01f39798e77d77142810.png T108 18z

     

    Some pretty large changes on the 18z here is the early part of the run... mostly the shape of the Atlantic high pressure cell. Also changes to the shape of the high pressure cell to the NE.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Can’t we just dispense with the long drawn out drama over the ridge to the nw at day ten and just have a quicker east ne flow !

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Big upgrade out to 102.  Very unusual situation unfolding here with FI around 72hrs so anything from here on in should be taken with a big pinch as salt. Just looking for growing trends really.

    image.thumb.png.2d21e340dd8f78bc48f0abaca1cd6d3e.png  image.thumb.png.ad6f7dee972f19b6ac1af5acf9748dbe.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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