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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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55 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Still at day 10 though as its been since end of November

😂 that's true, this has to be the longest 10 days I've ever known, surely we must be nearly there by now? 😁 

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its totally wrong -I  now have zero lying snow.

Glad you said that, I've none either in Suffolk when Euro4 says yes. It's prone to being over optimistic. 

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12z ECM control run now takes the biscuit as the most extreme snowfall I've ever seen from a run, just fwiw (widespread 9-12 inches, SE and the north of England upto 15 inches...)

Anyway that is probably highly unlikely, but a bit of fun for sure!

Edited by kold weather

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Evening All is, Tuesdays Checklist ....😉

1/  Jet stream way south of UK in the days ahead...Yes!

2/ Cold becoming insitu,,,,Yes!

3/ Deep Cold ...No!

4/ Cold enough for snow for the south....Yes!

5/ Expect many Wintry surprises folks thanks to that ever growing block of Ice and winds from ....Greenland!!!

shawn.png

shawnx.png

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A question from me who loves the cold and snow but tries to understand what people are commenting on in here.

What happens to the weather between day 5 (120 hours) and the elusive day 10 (240 hours) that bit is very rarely talked about?

Also if cross model agreement at what point do we believe it 24, 48, 72, 96?

Serious questions (sound daft I know)👌

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48 minutes ago, danm said:

A 3-4cm covering of snow here in suburban north London, in a PM NW’erly is pretty damn good. Shows how little snow events can pop up at short notice. Much more than was forecast. 

Models definitely showing a little more interest today. It looks like we have the potential for shorter term upgrades in the output over the next few days. 

 

C1BCACF1-D170-4AB8-A00D-14F4625DF42C.jpeg

CC9796B5-4BAF-48E5-AE7F-E7A944488613.jpeg

I take it its snowed quite a bit more then to get 4cm cos that ain't! 

Just kidding...I'd love even a dusting. Still nothing here in Essex, despite what the radars are showing. 

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Standard Scottish weather for January . But yes should of been more specific.

a big stereotype this, in the last 4 winters have had snow lying on the ground for maybe 5 days..... we have not had many decent winters since 2010

 

scotland is not a winter wonderland every winter.... we really dont all live up hills wearing kilts chasing haggis

 

i am encouraged by the output tonight.... signs of improvement and potential blocking.... giving FI is T120 at best i am paying little attention beyond that

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12 minutes ago, fazzafarrand said:

I hope that is at least Stella in that glass?

Heineken

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9 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

I take it its snowed quite a bit more then to get 4cm cos that ain't! 

Just kidding...I'd love even a dusting. Still nothing here in Essex, despite what the radars are showing. 

Haha, well it didn’t settle properly on all surfaces! A definite 3 to 4cm’s on the grass and on top of the little ones playhouse! On roads/pavements less so for obvious reasons.

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7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well only one word I can use for the ECM ensembles:

Stonker!

Seriously that is amazing set of ensembles, just for reference just 6 out of 50 do not create a decent Azores ridge into the Greenland area by the 31st Jan. Several of those end up with decent northern blocking a few days later. I think there maybe some outrageous looking charts for the UK in this set of ensembles.

Lovely stuff cheers for that info 👍. Just prey we get there . 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻

Edited by ICE COLD

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Is there any part of the globe that gets cross model consistent agreement on forecasts?

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52 minutes ago, booferking said:

There you go who says the South East cant get snow from a NW’erly that's more than most of us got in NI..👍

NWly quite often give snow to suburban N&W/ SW London/Surrey and Northern home counties. However SE of here i.e  central London and N/W Kent/Sussex rarely benefit. Here in Gravesend several hours of rain sleet and wet snow and just wet ground as usual... Exciting 🙄. Surely a E-ly is far better for most regions in terms of longevity of any snowfalls/cold/ less moderation except for the far West/NW maybe that can cling on to those Cheshire gap streamers etc.

Edited by Kentspur

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Any surprises on icon!!!?

LP to our north is much stronger on this run and more organised, which may mean a slightly stronger cold push earlier on.

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Any surprises on icon!!!?

It's quite different over the UK at 102, much flatter although not sure where this is heading later on.

18z image.thumb.png.de32e0d6fc830000aa10d1773ac8a93d.png 12z image.thumb.png.ea6a37336c974a3a2d45d76fc09e28ce.png

To be honest I love it when the models start flip-flopping around, shows that something is 'up'!

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes Kold, the control evolves like the operational was was expected to days 9/10. 

Very strange how some seem to take enjoyment in posting nonsense. ..... anyway, the spreads reveal that there is a risk that the trough could drop due south or even ssw a little to our west and risk pulling in a southerly as opposed to a sou’easter .........all in all, trends are execellent for cold and wintry and I also expect there is a fair chance that things could accelerate into colder. However, the Canadian lobe will keep us on our toes for the next week or so at least. 

Certainly right to worry about the flow bending back to a southerly, that is a risk and it is well reflected in the GFS ensembles as well.

Also, still a decent snow signal for the 29-31st from the ECM ensembles.

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55 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Because this place is becoming what u read in the newspapers ( we all know what that is) objectivity seems to have gone out the window .

Think maybe you should go over to the model thread, the clue is in the title of this one...

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That's a shame, the ICON stops at 120 just when it's starting to look interesting. 

image.thumb.png.a3eb604781118061800496b5eb9ae24a.png

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes Kold, the control evolves like the operational was was expected to days 9/10. 

Very strange how some seem to take enjoyment in posting nonsense. ..... anyway, the spreads reveal that there is a risk that the trough could drop due south or even ssw a little to our west and risk pulling in a southerly as opposed to a sou’easter .........all in all, trends are execellent for cold and wintry and I also expect there is a fair chance that things could accelerate into colder. However, the Canadian lobe will keep us on our toes for the next week or so at least. 

Nick don’t think anyone is taking enjoyment out of posting negative stuff (well certainly not me) . It just feels like we’ve been waiting forever. I always listen to your advice and no you say it how it is . Just feels like we take  2 steps forward and then something pops up and it’s 3 steps back . When would you say are next shot a blocking high is ? Around day 10 ? Or is looking like wedges ? 

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Love watching how the weather models chop and change! However it makes me very anxious when there is a new update from each of the models, never know what it could show! I’m hoping the trough in the jet stream forecast for middle of next week will move further south and east as that would be in the perfect position for a strong easterly wind, however both ecm and gfs are also showing a low near Scandinavia which concerns me...

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ooh what have we here - 2cm !! won't verify of course..

 

 

 

 

47e698a9-05cf-47dc-b514-db914d3d0d74.png

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