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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What on earth does that mean, Crewe?  

The one a couple of years ago (can't remember when) was picked up one one model and was tracked on this thread, I remember.

It means that any given model can predict one at any given time frame (let's take 144 hrs for example) but the chances of it actually occurring would be slim given the formation of it would be highly dependent on a set of precise circumstances coming together on that one run at that time frame. The polar low that was modelled coukd still form, not form at all or form and take a different track. The upshot is the model still progged it. Hence polar lows can be shown in the models at any given time. 

Edited by CreweCold

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Just now, kold weather said:

I'm amazed.

Man with Bread just put the 12z ECM clusters up...

100% agreement on -ve NAO solution for early Feb. That is a heck of signal!!

I'll bet my bottom dollar its a Greeny high..

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Someone mentioned the Benny Hill theme a few pages back. Decided to read the rest of the thread with it playing. Would highly recommend 😅

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

PV nicely split caught my eye, as well as the jet digging south..

Yep, history tells us that the UK needs a couple of false alerts before the cold arrives, could be another of those occasions?

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Just now, Ice Day said:

Funny isn't it...... 12 hours ago we all felt a bit deflated, now we're back on the cold hunt express.  You've got to have stamina for this hobby.

 

Yep, GP, Blue, myself and a few other shave been saying all day that there is a pretty robust signal coming down the line for a development of heights over the northern latitudes towards the front of February.

If anything that signal has strengthened further today and faster again. IMO it maybe coming through a little too quick now and may delay 1-2 days, but the broad trend is looking a lock to me already. The long range is starting to remind me a lot of Nov-Dec 2010...early days still of course!

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yep, GP, Blue, myself and a few other shave been saying all day that there is a pretty robust signal coming down the line for a development of heights over the northern latitudes towards the front of February.

If anything that signal has strengthened further today and faster again. IMO it maybe coming through a little too quick now and may delay 1-2 days, but the broad trend is looking a lock to me already. The long range is starting to remind me a lot of Nov-Dec 2010...early days still of course!

Just a shame it's happening back end of winter (last month of the season) I'll take anything I can get at this point though. 

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Just a shame it's happening back end of winter (last month of the season) I'll take anything I can get at this point though. 

In my book early Feb is fine, and upto the 15h is fine, after that, unless the circumstances are exceptional, the sun will do damage to any snowcover.

Early Feb though the sun is still weak..

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Just a shame it's happening back end of winter (last month of the season) I'll take anything I can get at this point though. 

Early FEB CET wise is pretty much as cold as Jan is, its still prime time as the sun still isn't that strong, plus there tends to be a little less marginality due to slightly lower SSTs. There ids a reason our best snow set-ups tend to occur in Feb/March...

Anyway. The GFS para is a lot slower in developing high latitude blocking but trend is the same/ I actually think the para timing wise is probably a little more realistic by the way. Still very good run with the jet still diving SE. The low at the end of the run is overdone however...

Edited by kold weather

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

In my book early Feb is fine, and upto the 15h is fine, after that, unless the circumstances are exceptional, the sun will do damage to any snowcover.

Early Feb though the sun is still weak..

Agree, we’ve often seen epic cold spells in early Feb. 

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

In my book early Feb is fine, and upto the 15h is fine, after that, unless the circumstances are exceptional, the sun will do damage to any snowcover.

Early Feb though the sun is still weak..

Your altitude will help certainly. Its a lot sooner than that here that snow melts. I remember we had a good dumping of snow here overnight in Feb 2010...good couple of inches. Was gone by 11am.

Peak time for snow preservation here is late Nov to mid Jan. Usually OK to end of Jan but after that I've never seen snow not melt during the day to some degree, regardless of temps and dews. 

Edited by CreweCold

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10 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Someone mentioned the Benny Hill theme a few pages back. Decided to read the rest of the thread with it playing. Would highly recommend 😅

Sadly some seem to view the charts with the funeral march at volume #11...

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PS, big rain-snow event for the south on the para run on the 28th, for the east it starts and remains as snow. Broad totals are 10cms for CS England+Wales and west Midlands, 20-30cms for SE+EA and east Midlands.

Proper little channel low there...

Ah well, we can dream!

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Just a shame it's happening back end of winter (last month of the season) I'll take anything I can get at this point though. 

Don't worry about time it will be brutal,it would lol live in your memory.

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Your altitude will help certainly. Its a lot sooner than that here that snow melts. I remember we had a good dumping of snow here overnight in Feb 2010...good couple of inches. Was gone by 11am.

That was the 21st though?

 

it was gone in 20 mins in salford.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Control run from GFS 18z is kind of my worst case scenario for the set-up in early Feb. Still get a cold spell but a lobe of the disjointed PV ends up over Greenland and forces a WNW back onto us again, though could easily rinse and repeat again. Still a very cold and snowy back end to the Jan and early Feb though...

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This winter is fast becoming one of the worst for many years in terms of cold and snow and all the chart and model watching seem to be a complete waste of time as they constantly change their tune.  Yes i know what is because the weather is constantly changing and nothing is guaranteed, but if that is the case then why even bother with models in the first place then.  Might as well just stick our heads out of the windows and see what the weather is doing instead.  I doubt this winter will be one to remember with regards to cold and snow.  Those winters are fast becoming a rarity and will become even more so in the future.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That was the 21st though?

 

it was gone in 20 mins in salford.

Was it, thought it was earlier than that. Yes, remember seeing quite a bit of snow had fallen... Only for it to melt away in no time. 

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10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Just a shame it's happening back end of winter (last month of the season) I'll take anything I can get at this point though. 

No need to worry about exact timing CC. 1947 was broadly a Feb/early March affair and down here last March (2018) was epic (in March terms) with temps of -2c at 2.00pm and powder snow depth of 6-8 ins on 2nd March, followed by other snow events during March.

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These 18z ensembles ARE the snowiest I've ever seen from about 264hrs onwards, multiple runs have big lows that inject just enough cold air to keep most of it as snow, quite a few blizzards modelled as well.

Snow Freak, I think just give it 10 more days and you'll be on the cusp of a great cold spell, its supported by most teleconnections as well as long range models, far more than the failed easterly ever was. EG, 100% agreement from the eCM ensembles on the broad idea of a -ve NAO, that is rare.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Was it, thought it was earlier than that. Yes, remember seeing quite a bit of snow had fallen... Only for it to melt away in no time. 

only an inch but it was on a sunday, unless you're on about the ne flow in earky feb, the low coming up from the south in mid feb that gave birmingham a couple of inches wouldn't have got far enough north to affect you.

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

No need to worry about exact timing CC. 1947 was broadly a Feb/early March affair and down here last March (2018) was epic (in March terms) with temps of -2c at 2.00pm and powder snow depth of 6-8 ins on 2nd March, followed by other snow events during March.

The one that sticks in my mind is March 2013. Incessant cold but nothing stuck here at all. 10 miles up the road with a bit of elevation it was feet deep in drifts up the potteries way. 

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If only the weather was 288 hours behind the models we would be constantly buried in snowdrifts lol

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

only an inch but it was on a sunday, unless you're on about the ne flow in earky feb, the low coming up from the south in mid feb that gave birmingham a couple of inches wouldn't have got far enough north to affect you.

I seem to remember this being a polar maritime sourced event. Pretty sure a band of snow pushed in from the west/northwest overnight. 

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The one that sticks in my mind is March 2013. Incessant cold but nothing stuck here at all. 10 miles up the road with a bit of elevation it was feet deep in drifts up the potteries way. 

March 2013 was basically a non-event here. Cold(ish) but bone dry. Frustrating though, as only 20 miles North of here and into Midlands, NW, etc it was epic.

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Just now, kold weather said:

These 18z ensembles ARE the snowiest I've ever seen from about 264hrs onwards, multiple runs have big lows that inject just enough cold air to keep most of it as snow, quite a few blizzards modelled as well.

Snow Freak, I think just give it 10 more days and you'll be on the cusp of a great cold spell, its supported by most teleconnections as well as long range models, far more than the failed easterly ever was. EG, 100% agreement from the eCM ensembles on the broad idea of a -ve NAO, that is rare.

i certainly hope you are right.  although anything beyond 150 hrs is wishful thinking as far as the models go usually.

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