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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Just to note, there are a couple of runs now starting to go for a easterly airflow as soon as the start of next week. Far from the form horse but just worth keeping an eye on.

12z control ONLY just about makes it and the 12z GFS para is not looking the best at 192hrs either, though should also just make it down the line...so plenty to keep grounded about still.

Truth is, this is a highly volatile situation and could go both better or worse. Form horse would say worse but each situation is different!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
17 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

What will it take for a Northerly or North westerly to produce the goods for those lower down from the hills? Midlands south also?? 

I think what we are seeing ahead, any less cold sectors are reducing with some unusually very cold air coming from our NW and I see snow being more widespread than thought

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GFS para still not great out to 240hrs, compared to what we could be seeing!

216hrs looks a lot like the ECM with the circular LP sitting over the UK and keeping the cold air to our north. Also new LP's forming to our west will slow down the cold air even more. Right ole mess frankly!

EDIT- 288hrs and it finally lands us into the colder air, but the whole set-up aloft is a heck of a mess with the PV desperately trying to pull itself together again!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds

Another chart from P17. And this is only 384hrs out.:clap:

 

 

 

EF9A07F1-F4B2-496F-98DA-03DB19E5B32D.png

Edited by Decemberof2010
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Looking good for another chance of an easterly, problem is will it get down  to the reliable timeframe. 

The failed easterly this week, even though the chance of it happening went as high as 80%,  the less cold option at 20% still won out! means unless it gets down to t plus 72 hours, think it won't ever verify! 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
25 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ha you might be right!

Its a solid run though, I won't deny that and I'd still take it for sure compared to what we have had this winter. I just think as Catacol has already said, we may see a few really big runs some point soon.

Anyway the GFS para should be a shot across the bowels of those getting a little carried away again, still cold, and I think it will still get there vby 240hrs, but that's far from solid.

 

I'm certainly sh***ing myself it will verify over all of the other better output!  

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Looking good for another chance of an easterly, problem is will it get down  to the reliable timeframe. 

The failed easterly this week, even though the chance of it happening went as high as 80%,  the less cold option at 20% still won out! means unless it gets down to t plus 72 hours, think it won't ever verify! 

 

I won't trust it unless it gets down to t plus 0.1 hour away

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Posted
  • Location: Louth
  • Weather Preferences: snowsnowsnow
  • Location: Louth

 

Newbie here, any comments appreciated. So the much maligned GFS does seem to have spotted the trend for this weekend before the others with regard to failed very cold conditions....but the last few runs seem to be becoming more and more consistent with some type of easterly flow as per met opinions in Fi. Let’s hope that it’s right this time aswell. However can someone explain greenie high set ups again? While pressure often seems high,  on 850’s show dark blues or purples. Is the preffered route to cold with yellows over Greenland or less blue colours? If so what’s the difference?

81A26800-18AA-4080-88DB-92DEC0BC10A1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
32 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

To be fair, you aren't giving an explanation as to why its different this time...I am a novice at this but have a little knowledge but I too would like to understand if this is the same old 10 days out, or if there is more meat on the models bones of it coming to fruition this time and why it is different to the last 3 or 4 failed attempts to get cold to our little island? Thanks 

STRONG FAITH. 

 

No, it is a fair question and why I elaborated on what I believe will be different come turn of the month though I didn't really explain why.

Essentially it is the state of the atmosphere and more especially atmospheric patterns over the Northern hemisphere  leading into this spell.

Instead of getting all wordy I will show the difference between how things are now and how things were when we were predicted to be in the freezer this week with the beast from the East roaring away.

Here is how things were on 16/17 this month

gfsnh-0-6.png?12

Which led to these charts being forecast for this week which never came to fruition.

gfsnh-0-174.png?12

But this is our starting condition now with the forecast for Southerly jet.

gfsnh-0-6.png?12

Conditions across the NH are much more favourable in my opinion and the Azores high is further North and with more favourable alignment with the deep purples (low heights) over Greenland lifted. You can also contrast the jet profile across the US at that time which again is more favourable now (IMO)

Of course the factors and model output I give more weight to may not be the same as those others give more weight to and indeed a lot of how we see things progressing is based upon our own interpretations of what we see across the MO.

In that regard someone could make a reasonable case as to why they believe they think there will not be a proper Arctic outbreak around the turn of the month. or indeed through early Feb.

All we can do is make a case for how we see things in the full knowledge we may end up wrong.

 

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
24 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

I’ve decided to resume my hunt for cold. I’ve picked a GEFS member at random (that may or may not be true)

So here is P17

 

38217C17-7B02-4070-B382-540DFCA16CA1.png

C44AECDC-70FB-40E6-99FF-924C97667C45.png

45424C02-7C8B-4A5B-A362-3886A594A2E1.png

38A514CB-CC62-42B6-88AB-3DD99503842E.png

E91C13A9-FF01-4733-931D-C3359C543E32.png

E28D6403-5DC5-4317-A8D5-157B0360A376.png

Yes you definitely picked that member at ‘random’

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Gem is what the 6z could have been given better downstream over the north sea.

Very much think it won't be long till good charts return at D7 rather than D10+.

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
6 minutes ago, TEITS said:

See my previous posts because the 12Z GEM is exactly what I have been referring to.

Brace yourselves as we're about to set off on the rollercoaster again!

But How much confidence do you have in the output being shown

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
9 minutes ago, TEITS said:

See my previous posts because the 12Z GEM is exactly what I have been referring to.

Brace yourselves as we're about to set off on the rollercoaster again!

A few GFS ensembles are showing that solution right now, a few more sill have a stonking northerly if the high doesn't get far enough west.

Anyway GEM looks great on the 12z, whilst it never gets too established, the cold air nearby ensures when the next low drops down we remain cold.

GFS ensembles by the way are an utter mess, so many different solutions present. Still favoured is the NW-Se tracking low and some sort of heights to our north...but there are at least a few runs keeping heights low to our north and restregnthening the PV...so we will see!

Model confidence must be on the floor right now, not because of what happened previously, but because there are so many different runs even st 120hrs out. Knowing our luck this year, we will default back into the Azores high!!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Wind, Rain, Sun.....but mainly cooler weather!
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL

I would like to add, if I may, and its ok to do so, that the NW radar had a lump of snow pass over us. Nope, it was rain 

Screenshot_20190122-181229_NW Snow Radar.jpg

Edited by Storme
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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

BBC weather forcast now saying a fair bit of snow for Kent tomorrow. 

Just shows how snow can appear at short notice.. ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

ECM looking nice at t96

4B9C192A-84AC-4531-A58F-872264CE7917.gif

UKMO?

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
5 minutes ago, Storme said:

I would like to add, if I may, and its ok to do so, that the NW radar had a lump of snow pass over us. Nope, it was rain 

Screenshot_20190122-181229_NW Snow Radar.jpg

These are model based though. Radar is correct in terms of ppn, but the ppn type is determined by the conditions that were predicted at that time. 

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