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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 12z is a stonker - snow chances throughout the run.

Day 11 is such a stonker that even Sidney's playing it safe!image.thumb.png.c94da203dc01aa68ccec2af59b999316.pngimage.png.5dd31b6cc5d35629efe43c2aa45031fb.png

Would be nice were the ECM to be on-board, this evening?:cold:

image.thumb.png.bce8b39a66da0c185a1d89092dfcd307.png

 

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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4 hours ago, danm said:

Correspondent on the BBC from Brussels, snowing heavily there. That's from the front that swept through the UK last night, rain mostly here, as soon as it hits the contintent it turns to snow. If only we had a more continental climate! 😓

It’s frustrating I know but the place that receives the most snow in the world during winter is on the island of Japan. Effectively they get something similar to what we do when the Beast from the east arrives on our shores from Russia(West). But they get it all winter along with sub zero temps so it just keeps accumulating. 

Which leads me onto a question for you more experienced folk..

In the event of a SSW when the winds reverse does this result in Japan getting a milder less snowy winter ?? 

 

Edited by Yorkshirepudding
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10 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

GFS day 10 Europe...

 

gfs-1-240.thumb.png.bcdf5e22ca396023c8b92bece4dc319c.png

 

Meanwhile in Australia....

 

gfsau-1-240.thumb.png.29c9980319536e905a90d23b7bbe7217.png

Being that I’m originally from Australia, I can pretty much tell you without having to look, that there’s a trough sitting somewhere off the coast of Western Australia.

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48 minutes ago, AWD said:

I did say "hill snow for the north" purely because the colder 850hpa temps do quickly come down just after the weekend;

UW144-7.thumb.gif.f5540799d4c4228f4bc1099dfeda8c12.gif

So something wintry possible as Sunday progresses into Monday for Scotland and the Pennines.

Hill snow for the south too...Brecon Beacons will be white...oh maybe the Black mountains and maybe Dartmoor...where do we call this..I don’t know, all of us don’t know.  As cold digs in there is far more to look at than just 850s

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Day 11 is such a stonker that even Sidney's playing it safe!image.thumb.png.c94da203dc01aa68ccec2af59b999316.pngimage.png.5dd31b6cc5d35629efe43c2aa45031fb.png

 

 

Dreadful tease Pete....dreadful 😎

 

B FTP

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13 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

Being that I’m originally from Australia, I can pretty much tell you without having to look, that there’s a trough sitting somewhere off the coast of Western Australia.

I can tell you from visiting my dad in WA many times its ******* HOT..........lol

Edited by Fozfoster

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Good 12z GFS, indeed its kind a mixture between the two different camps that there present in the GFS ensembles.

Indeed, I feel that maybe quite a good compromise solution and doesn't require much of stretch from what we are already seeing, plus it pretty much fits the MJO situation as well.

Not quite at boom status, but a good effort.

Edited by kold weather
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17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Hill snow for the south too...Brecon Beacons will be white...oh maybe the Black mountains and maybe Dartmoor...where do we call this..I don’t know, all of us don’t know.  As cold digs in there is far more to look at than just 850s

 

BFTP

What will it take for a Northerly or North westerly to produce the goods for those lower down from the hills? Midlands south also?? 

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Some stonking charts at D10 on the GEFS, even more, progressive with the wedges/heights entering the higher latitudes!

gens_panel_rbg8.png

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Worth noting though both the control and para GFS have got a rather different pattern come 192hrs with our friend the Azores high ridging into Europe as the upper low doesn't really dig down but moves more ESE. Both could still evolve cold but that would put abit of a spanner in the works, and we know how reluctant the Azores high has been to move at all so far this winter...

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why or why would people put anymore faith in  the models for 10 days away from now, after the fails that they have churned out so far this winter, what do we think the differences are this time around?

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All roads lead to cold.

. NW then NE. 

We should rename the thread . The hunt for mild .. it's gonna be a long time before we see double figures again. 

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11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Good 12z GFS, indeed its kind a mixture between the two different camps that there present in the GFS ensembles.

Indeed, I feel that maybe quite a good compromise solution and doesn't require much of stretch from what we are already seeing, plus it pretty much fits the MJO situation as well.

Not quite at boom status, but a good effort.

Christ, you're hard to please.

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I think we need to accept the fact that we're going to be snowed in for many weeks. Being cautious is a mugs game.

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4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Christ, you're hard to please.

Ha you might be right!

Its a solid run though, I won't deny that and I'd still take it for sure compared to what we have had this winter. I just think as Catacol has already said, we may see a few really big runs some point soon.

Anyway the GFS para should be a shot across the bowels of those getting a little carried away again, still cold, and I think it will still get there vby 240hrs, but that's far from solid.

 

Edited by kold weather
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Never in all my time on this website have I seen so much interest in the model thread over 2 months and the word 'stonker' used so often without anything actually happening...I have my feet planted at the gate and will not be going up the garden path unless that Raymond Briggs snowman leads me up it!...and Christopher Dean and Jayne Torvill with their skates on.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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5 minutes ago, danm said:

Because it’s the model output thread and most of us are hunting cold? Winter isn’t over, despite what some posters keep telling us. 

To be fair, you aren't giving an explanation as to why its different this time...I am a novice at this but have a little knowledge but I too would like to understand if this is the same old 10 days out, or if there is more meat on the models bones of it coming to fruition this time and why it is different to the last 3 or 4 failed attempts to get cold to our little island? Thanks 

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49 minutes ago, Biensie said:

I’m struggling to see why the model thread was divided... because this thread is much the same as the last (which is fine)  unless of course someone stupidly mentions zonal, mild or rain. The other thread seems to be dedicated to Knocker?

Short term was dedicated to knocker.🤣 FMD does actually have some over posters in it. 

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

To be fair, you aren't giving an explanation as to why its different this time...I am a novice at this but have a little knowledge but I too would like to understand if this is the same old 10 days out, or if there is more meat on the models bones of it coming to fruition this time and why it is different to the last 3 or 4 failed attempts to get cold to our little island? Thanks 

Well we won’t know until 10 days have passed, will we? It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t still be looking a week to 10 days ahead and hunting cold? 

You asked why is it different this time - I don’t know if things will work out differently or not to this week, however as many of the more experienced posters have pointed out, the SSW downwelling should reach its peak at the end of the month. The fact we’ve had a significant SSW keeps our chances of a significant cold spell alive, so at any time over the next few weeks we have the potential to be in the frame. 

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2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

To be fair, you aren't giving an explanation as to why its different this time...I am a novice at this but have a little knowledge but I too would like to understand if this is the same old 10 days out, or if there is more meat on the models bones of it coming to fruition this time and why it is different to the last 3 or 4 failed attempts to get cold to our little island? Thanks 

Its no different this time. All you can do is follow the charts and look at the signals and what the models think and apply interpretation. Its weather and it changes but we can look at the output and have an idea where we are going in the hope we arrive at a good place for cold. 

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