Cold hunt - models and chat

[snowbob]

People moaning about how this thread has been split.

i can honestly say I have learnt more these last two days (which doesn’t take much to be honest ) than I have in all the years I have been a member on here.

the fact you can post without fear of being belittled or your post being deleted really helps.

it really was serious on here a few years back.

think I got told of by John Holmes a few times lol

well done mods great idea

cheers

Edited January 21, 2019 by snowbob

[snowray]

JMA looking good tonight at D11.

Edited January 21, 2019 by snowray

[Wilxy]

37 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes Weeks 2,3,4

looking good as we head into February

Although we’ve been here before, I understand the lack of excitement that this update may bring. 

But I’d rather it showed this signal than comfirm what some of the more sceptical are possibly thinking!

Would have been better if it had shown low pressure being reverse fortunes as that has been showing all winter with no luck!

[BlackburnChris]

Models will go into overdrive when the Easterly Zonal winds reach the surface . 

[Johnp]

6 minutes ago, snowbob said:

People moaning about how this thread has been split.

i can honestly say I have learnt more these last two days (which doesn’t take much to be honest ) than I have in all the years I have been a member on here.

the fact you can post without fear of being belittled or your post being deleted really helps.

it really was serious on here a few years back.

think I got told of by John Holmes a few times lol

well done mods great idea

cheers

Just some more info on the MJO.

We're currently in phase 4 - this image from Marco Petagna (Met Office)

shows the trends for each phase 

 

[MattStoke]

Euro4 update.

[Roger J Smith]

The Prime Minister of Fantasy Island has appealed for help after unprecedented snowfalls crippled the nation this winter.

"We've never seen so much snow," said the embattled leader. "And severe cold too."

In nearby Britain, they haven't seen much of this at all. Just one of the things likely to happen more often in the future, according to weather experts at Net-weather, who advise against even going to Fantasy Island. 

[TEITS]

Just compared yesterdays 12 ECM with todays and all im going to say is I shall hold fire before making any predictions. At the moment im not impressed with how the models are performing. If I had more time I would explain but im off to bed.

 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Just some more info on the MJO.

We're currently in phase 4 - this image from Marco Petagna (Met Office)

shows the trends for each phase 

 

That’s the guy that writes a lot of the Long range forecasts for the MetO. He’s worth a follow seems a decent fella, replies to tweets as well. 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Euro4 update.

Massive downgrade for central and east midlands°!!

[snowrye]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Euro4 update.

Amazing,france,Belgium,holland,snow,yet nothing showing for the south east,and a north westerly

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Massive downgrade for central and east midlands°!!

It shows 1cm for the mendip hills 

Bank 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Massive downgrade for central and east midlands°!!

I would say the time has come to ignore these, look up at the sky and see what falls the nature of showers is they won’t be modelled well.

Edited January 21, 2019 by karlos1983

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, snowrye said:

Amazing,france,Belgium,holland,snow,yet nothing showing for the south east,and a north westerly

Their snow is mostly from tonight’s frontal system, which looks to become occluded as it leaves the UK. Also, it’s much easier to get snow in their continental climate.

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I would say the time has come to ignore these, look up at the sky and see what falls the nature of showers is they won’t be modelled well.

True to an extent. It gives a good idea of the general areas at risk but you have to ignore the exact detail.

[karlos1983]

Just now, MattStoke said:

True to an extent. It gives a good idea of the general areas at risk but you have to ignore the exact detail.

Yes exactly, that what I meant,you just said it better

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Just some more info on the MJO.

We're currently in phase 4 - this image from Marco Petagna (Met Office)

shows the trends for each phase 

 

Dear me ..!!

Need it to get out of phase 4 sharpish then!!

[Stephen_Mcr]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Euro4 update.

Very very unlikely. Currently pelting it down with torrential rain here in South Manchester - it could snow for days and nothing would stick.

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Their snow is mostly from tonight’s frontal system, which looks to become occluded as it leaves the UK. Also, it’s much easier to get snow in their continental climate.

Though they essentially have the same climate as us. The Low Countries are more maritime than eastern England.

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Stephen_Mcr said:

Very very unlikely. Currently pelting it down with torrential rain here in South Manchester - it could snow for days and nothing would stick.

If it gets colder the more likely it'll accumalate

[MidnightSnow]

The second part of Marco Petagna's tweet in case anybody didn't see it.

"2/2 All might not be lost though as models are widely in favour of shifting the tropical #rain bearing #MJO phenomenon firmly into phase 6 or 7 in the next couple of weeks...which ties in nicely with our UKMO forecast of #cold or v cold #weather developing end Jan into Feb"

 

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by MidnightSnow

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Stephen_Mcr said:

Very very unlikely. Currently pelting it down with torrential rain here in South Manchester - it could snow for days and nothing would stick.

Doesn’t matter how wet the ground is. As long as it’s cold enough, snow can settle. Seen it loads of times.

[kold weather]

Well the 18z control seems much more realistic in how it is handling everything, with the Azores high ridging towards Greenland but also getting slanted to the east by the PV over NE Canada.

[Catacol]

I like the look of all the models tonight. It's like watching 2 Sumo warriors hammering into each other - flow off Canada trying to move on a NW/SE axis with the mid atlantic ridge doing its damndest to force its way north. Stalemate in the short to medium range as the two trends repeatedly collide - but everything still points to the atlantic Sumo  running out of steam even if it is doing a hell of a job maintaining its coherence. Temperature gradient will be an ally in this....but High Lat Sumo is going to win out..... By 216 both GEM and ECM have real interest, and JMA is on the same page if a little later and a tad further north.

Downwelling winds are going to put the brakes on.....and when the point of no return arrives the high will break through to the north, the jet will split and dive south and we will end up in very good conditions for a wintry product.

When? I've given up trying to get timing right this winter - so far we have had to demonstrate extreme patience and trying to put a date on a change to cold has been very difficult. The MetO have been fairly solid for a while now on a turn at the end of Jan/early Feb and more tweets today suggesting the same.... so let's go with them. This would suggest a change in the charts to something dramatic looking within a few days - maybe end of the weekend. When the signal for high pressure breakout is picked up I think it might be a swift transition.

Until then - those that can enjoy a cold NW feed - knock yourself out. Not much good for lowland SW (imby) to be honest, but I know some will get a covering this week, something we have been saying all along about this initial trough. It's the next phase that has us all on the edge of our seat...………

[tight isobar]

Making things easy..

We have had a 'quite major ssw..

And downwelling /prop-has us occured!..

Coupling of the statosohere..and the tropisohere have indeed COUPLED. yet not mirrored in effects of former modeling

This has had effects on the obvious deviate..between polar organise..and trough..and waa access.

And put the NAO into neutral..minor neg.

But only for the time in offer.

In easy term 4 those..its like painting a ceiling..with gloss..that should indeed have quick drying emulssion...

But you have..(in gloss) and turned a blow heater up @it..hoping that the gloss will drip..to the floor boards..then into the living room!!.

But the initial thought..and prog..was good..but tge heater was faced into a different ..placement..and not THE WHOLE CEILING!!.

And propagation is reff'ed..

Yet you can smell -and hear the dripping of the gloss!..

Anyway..tgeres a 2nd happening 3nd slight coat applied..

And this timr..putting the weight on the former cost..

And the dripping may eell become a downpour!!!.

With some previous raw data gfs/ecm/ukmo..etc etc noting the voice!!!

And already sime what we see maybe stale-and nin worthy of fruition...

As we have missed the gun...

But the shots have already been fired..

And the shot in the head...IS COMING.

 

Note the snaps ive- put up..for both analysis..and back up 2my  aboves...

Lots of love TIGHT-ISOBAR.

ps- it looks as though the pain..will ride out with MAJOR GAIN XXX

gefs_ensemblemean_wafz_2019012100.webp

gefs_ensemblemean_pch_2019012100.webp

 

Im not just a 'preety face you know

 

On a more minor-scale..'yet 'large ramification'..

Lets add the 18z ens..

And balloon/upper-data miss log or otherwise...they fit the script.

I'll dig out last-late feb/mar-ones..

They are alarmingly similar on face and scale!!!!

 

 

t2m_2019012100_days1_5.webp

Edited January 22, 2019 by tight isobar