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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    USA forecasters prefer the ECM MJO forecast .

    They said the GEFS can overdo Rossby wave activity which effects it’s progression .

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Moreton-in-Marsh area, 175m asl
  • Location: Moreton-in-Marsh area, 175m asl

    and i see the ecm 46 has shifted away from the direction as shown for the last few weeks. another dissapointment 

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Weeks 2,3,4

    looking good as we head into February ?

    FAED829C-D900-463E-AC5A-FCC0AC72D774.thumb.png.e2bd974edb31f90a910f932449b9b3bc.png94161300-510B-4F72-91CD-F270077414F9.thumb.png.bed3863f4bf8fd0db33723ca3e0fa470.png5545D248-35A6-45CA-8DD9-D07D54D0A9F7.thumb.png.98616ffb34d494e742af88588ecddbd7.png

    Are they trolling us and just putting the same images up every few days??

    My hope is the signals for hight lat blocking are correct, and it's just a case of the downwelling being much slower than expected.

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    USA forecasters prefer the ECM MJO forecast .

    They said the GEFS can overdo Rossby wave activity which effects it’s progression .

    But the ecm is wrong according to Matt Hugo.

    or I’m wrong

    confused now

    Edited by snowbob
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    gfsnh-0-210.png

    The paint has dripped..but not yet started-2 dry..

    !!!..

    More in a bit!!!

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, Johnp said:

    Are they trolling us and just putting the same images up every few days??

    My hope is the signals for hight lat blocking are correct, and it's just a case of the downwelling being much slower than expected.

    LOL yes it does feel we are being trolled!

    I think that could well be the case! At least once this propagation has happened, a clearer picture should start to emerge.. *hopefully ?

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    1 minute ago, snowbob said:

    But the ecm is wrong according to Matt Hugo.

    or I’m wrong

    confused now

    No, he's saying the ECM operational run was wrong, not the MJO forecast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    USA forecasters prefer the ECM MJO forecast .

    They said the GEFS can overdo Rossby wave activity which effects it’s progression .

    Possibly good news as the GEFS have been getting more and more keen on that Atlantic low taking hold and rotating in SW air in early Feb despite upper ridging occurring further north.. There is the same signal on the ECM but its a much weaker signal compared to the 12z GFS

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Moreton-in-Marsh area, 175m asl
  • Location: Moreton-in-Marsh area, 175m asl

    ....and quite ironic when i thought i may have some input to this forum (following from 2010) and i then discover that i am the only member logged in! tomorrow is a new day - and no doubt the models will have picked up on a new trend... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Durham
  • Location: Durham
    2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    gfsnh-0-210.png

    The paint has dripped..but not yet started-2 dry..

    !!!..

    More in a bit!!!

    Got more chance of paint falling from the sky than we do of snow! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Heights starting to increase to our north slowly at Day 9.

    The blues coming lighter north east of Iceland.

    wirh the ridge to the east building, GFS has been showing the possibility of Atlantic heights joining up to this to our north. Let’s see if it happens again.

    B71CFEEF-482E-49AB-842F-61FCEB925DB5.png

    Edit: huge ridge into the Pole too pacific side

    Edited by bradythemole
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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
    Just now, Johnp said:

    No, he's saying the ECM operational run was wrong, not the MJO forecast.

    Ok cheers @Johnp 

    i think

    to be honest mjo a bit out of my comfort zone

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Fairly similar 18z to the 12z on a broad scale out to 192hrs, though obviously there is a weather difference to the locations of all the LP features. Maybe a touch flatter?

    No, I'd say it's all further east, which is what we need to keep the core of the cold over us?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    20 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    By the way as I mentioned on the other thread, ECM ensembles actually do seem like they are honing in on a possible snow set-up between the 29-31st of the month, that maybe a time period just to keep an eye on and see if other models start to clock the same thing.

    Now why did I break out and start smirking when I read that Darren

    8-10 days away

    Saying no more on the subject until its T2 away

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Yes Weeks 2,3,4

    looking good as we head into February ?

    FAED829C-D900-463E-AC5A-FCC0AC72D774.thumb.png.e2bd974edb31f90a910f932449b9b3bc.png94161300-510B-4F72-91CD-F270077414F9.thumb.png.bed3863f4bf8fd0db33723ca3e0fa470.png5545D248-35A6-45CA-8DD9-D07D54D0A9F7.thumb.png.98616ffb34d494e742af88588ecddbd7.png

    Although we’ve been here before, I understand the lack of excitement that this update may bring. 

    But I’d rather it showed this signal than comfirm what some of the more sceptical are possibly thinking! ☺️

    At least it’s now showing higher pressure to our north east as well, seeing as it seems impossible to build high pressure to our north west, no matter what, thanks to the pain in the backside Canadian PV.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    This is much more like it, should be good from here 

    image.thumb.png.fc93dafbf00f600ea0feac8e3d6e1aa8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, snowbob said:

    But the ecm is wrong according to Matt Hugo 

    The ops we see won’t be effected by the current MJO situation because of the time lag . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The ops we see won’t be effected by the current MJO situation because of the time lag . 

    Thankyou for reply nick

    got the wrong end of the stick as another member just informed me

    as I said to him mjo a new one on me so gonna read up on that

    Edited by snowbob
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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    USA forecasters prefer the ECM MJO forecast .

    They said the GEFS can overdo Rossby wave activity which effects it’s progression .

    These the same forecasters that had 100% confidence in the GFS initial handling of the winter storm? ?

    Tongue and cheek BTW ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Well we get a GFS special from 300hrs onwards with about a textbook +ve NAO look as you can get.

    I'm not convinced by the way the GFS is handling the arctic at all on this run though...

    Also, the pattern its showing from 300hts is vastly different from the 12z GFS ensembles and also very different than most of the ECM ensembles as well, so GFS probably going off on one of its occasional wanderings to default so to speak.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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