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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Well if you think the charts below represent height anomaly for the EC46 for the period 21st-27th i'm Kris Kringle.

ECH1-0 (1).gif

ECH1-24.gif

ECH1-48.gif

ECH1-72.gif

ECH1-96.gif

ECH1-120 (3).gif

ECH1-144 (4).gif

500za_week3_bg.png.c1b8f1f36f19d04c1f1023c97625f30f.png.fe4877e8b15093dda8759dcb0b544e91.png.b590cf88ee5aedda853465e8a323987e.png

Ridge in the Atlantic - Check

Trough over the UK - Check

Trough over the eastern US - Check

Ridge over the eastern US - Check

Really miles off.

Edited by MattStoke

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4 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

It's worth remembering that, no matter how bad the winter has been thus far, there have been some classic winters that didn't really get going until the early stages of February.  Take 2019 for example when...

Oh damn, just realised I got out my time machine in the wrong year....

Completely agree, February 2019 was epic. Possibly the snowiest month of my lifetime. 

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Just putting T120 charts side by side , with 5 models ecm, gem, gfs, icon and ukmo , these are for this coming saturday.. 

Whopping differences at just 5 days away. 

ECH1-120.thumb.gif.7e621dbccc7ae6d33624df404b85f7e0.gifgemnh-0-120.thumb.png.a6957684884616ff8adcabf7b2e30aa7.pnggfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.545912bd188a2582790c65de1422f1f5.pngiconnh-0-120.thumb.png.a305f010628c5c4465946e63ef4540e1.pngUN120-21.thumb.gif.196eb1becafbaf5066a7fdfab0b59c32.gif

Shannons not only in the room , she has pulled up a chair and slapped her feet on the table. 

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ECM was full on moments of "this next frane could be good" then it came and it was disappointing. 

Here's to better runs tomorrow 👍

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2 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Just putting T120 charts side by side , with 5 models ecm, gem, gfs, icon and ukmo , these are for this coming saturday.. 

Whopping differences at just 5 days away. 

ECH1-120.thumb.gif.7e621dbccc7ae6d33624df404b85f7e0.gifgemnh-0-120.thumb.png.a6957684884616ff8adcabf7b2e30aa7.pnggfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.545912bd188a2582790c65de1422f1f5.pngiconnh-0-120.thumb.png.a305f010628c5c4465946e63ef4540e1.png 

Shannons not only in the room , she has pulled up a chair and slapped her feet on the table. 

looking at those I am struck how the general hemispheric pattern seems well observed by all the models !

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An odd run I thought from the EC Det. A thought backed up by the graph form. Very up and down and on it’s own by D10

FEFE2EC0-93C5-48A2-97B4-1BD2E70B38E7.thumb.png.0a8bb2427903f46ba238bdafcf904e92.png

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No panic just yet its January 21st 

If it was feb 21st id be thinking about going to the dr's 

Lets see what the 18z says later on

Winter hasnt started yet 

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Just now, MattStoke said:

Ridge in the Atlantic - Check

Trough over the UK - Check

Trough over the eastern US - Check

Ridge over the eastern US - Check

Really miles off.

Yea and the big missing part of the jigsaw heights in Arctic Greenland getting stronger and more pronounced but they are missing.

500za_week3_bg.png.c1b8f1f36f19d04c1f1023c97625f30f.png.fe4877e8b15093dda8759dcb0b544e91.png.b590cf88ee5aedda853465e8a323987e.png

500za_week4_bg.png.6212c8df693347a574bd5f2dfdd774c5.png.f4cdd65ca509f04108af051f4eea84e5.png.87db78a82fd0e7e282d2052348623719.png

ECH1-144 (5).gif

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Will conceded though that the lack of height rises over Greenland is frustrating and is the main area where the ECM seasonal model has gone wrong. Unfortunate for us. The Canadian PV just will not do one. Therefore, instead of significant cold we get a weakened and meandering jet (I’m guessing an impact of the SSW weakening the PV), bringing in rather cold air and bringing systems on a NW to SE tragectory.

Looks to me that the strat warming has had some effect and the seasonal models have got most of the pressure patterns right. Just not enough to give us significant cold. Don’t think the predictions have gone completely wrong, but they haven’t gone completely right either.

Edited by MattStoke

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Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

No panic just yet its January 21st 

If it was feb 21st id be thinking about going to the dr's 

Lets see what the 18z says later on

Winter hasnt started yet 

Well the last bit is certainly true.  👿

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2 minutes ago, CSC said:

For all those pessimists saying 'winter is over', please go and get some sleep, it isnt! This is the 21st January. Last year we saw significant snow at the end of march..

I do fully understand for many snow lovers, including myself, this winter has been invariably disappointing. The promise of snow for it not to arrive or for all models to switch late on is hard to see. 

This week is still looking exceptionally cold. Tuesday may well bring surprises for many. I have seen lots of comments saying that snow will not fall to lower levels. I however, think that many places will see a period of snow. It may not lay but you may well see some snow at some point,  from the N W to all the way to South coast here in Brighton.

Wednesday many places will struggle to get above 1ºC or 2ºC. This thread is 'hunt for cold'. That is cold to me!

As we head into the later stages of the week, Friday up until Saturday evening there looks to be a warm up. What you may notice however is the constant reload of the jet stream each time it gets colder and colder. I personally think that after this warm up, we have our first chance of a significant snow event. I am to be proven wrong of course but this is my view on it.😁

With RE to ECM and GFS 'agreeing' to 240h'' it doesn't make too much difference to me. They have proved unreliable at this range in the past and will prove unreliable in the future.

I am fascinated on what is to happen next this winter. 

Please everyone, it may be difficult, but remain optimistic until the end. If you don't have hope, you have nothing.

Have a good evening!

Thank you for reading 😃

Onwards and upwards!

No one is saying winters over it’s just everyone was exspecting a wintry spell in January and it didn’t happen . It’s been jan since nov/dec everything pointing to jan . It will be early jan , nope it will be mid jan ,nope last third of jan , nope end of jan and guess what now into February. So you understand why people are frustrated. Now that we are looking into feb the clock starts to tick because the further you go into feb the better the conditions have to be ie higher 850s etc etc to get proper wintry conditions . I Know winters not over and most will probably see snow before February is finished but would of been better in mid winter and all the talk / forecasts about a good winter has just led to people being very frustrated. 🙂

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Will conceded though that the lack of height rises over Greenland is frustrating and is the main area where the ECM seasonal model has gone wrong. Unfortunate for us. The Canadian PV just will not do one. Therefore, instead of significant cold we get a weakened and meandering jet (I’m guessing an impact of the SSW weakening the PV), bringing in rather cold air and bringing systems on a NW to SE tragectory. 

Hopefully its just delayed and week 3 actually turns up in week 4 and so on.🤙

Edited by booferking

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ec MEAN looks fab @ day 10...

:cold:

Everything has been looking good out to day ten and beyond, then that time comes and nowt, but hold on everything looks great again in 10 days time and so on and so forth and boom, before you know it, it's Easter lol and 24c

Edited by lassie23

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12 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Completely agree, February 2019 was epic. Possibly the snowiest month of my lifetime. 

The snow event on Monday 4th of February I think was the best snow I have ever seen. Remember those pictures on the news with drifts up the side of Corfe Castle and the frozen sea. About 50cm fell inside my house when the roof caved in! 🤣

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49 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

even in an average winter ,you would expect one decent snowfall.Unless things change fairly quickly this winter is going to end up  a complete shambles and hopefully  the end of long range seasonal forecasting ,as it proven time and time again ,their are too many variables in the U.K. climate to forecast weeks,months ahead.

fingers crossed then that there are no future attempts to refine the science of long range forecasting and we can return to looking out of the window!

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Alot of differing views tonight. Looking at the current output across all major models I think the form horse over the next two weeks will be short but potentially snowy snaps. (12-36hours) followed by a warm up and then a repeat. At the same time as long as central Europe remains under the influence of low pressure the opportunity for an easterly to develope is always there. 

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Just now, Leon1 said:

The snow event on Monday 4th of February I think was the best snow I have ever seen. Remember those pictures on the news with drifts up the side of Corfe Castle and the frozen sea. About 50cm fell inside my house when the roof caved in! 🤣

And on Saturday February 16th when the Thames froze over and defied all odds in Central London's urban heat island and frost fairs returned..!

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Really really don't understand people on here given the volitility of the model output to write winter off. Plenty of scope for snow for just about anybody, in the days ahead...Quite simply go outdoors and enjoy the Winter weather , there's plenty on offer :gathering:😙😎😔 

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Interestingy while everyone is bemoaning next weeks output, tonight radar is showing not only back edge showers, its also showing some front edge snow too, as though the cold air is pushing in faster than expected, it will be interesting showing the progress as the Arpege was quite bullish on its snow possibilities for tomorrow.

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17 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Just putting T120 charts side by side , with 5 models ecm, gem, gfs, icon and ukmo , these are for this coming saturday.. 

Whopping differences at just 5 days away. 

ECH1-120.thumb.gif.7e621dbccc7ae6d33624df404b85f7e0.gifgemnh-0-120.thumb.png.a6957684884616ff8adcabf7b2e30aa7.pnggfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.545912bd188a2582790c65de1422f1f5.pngiconnh-0-120.thumb.png.a305f010628c5c4465946e63ef4540e1.pngUN120-21.thumb.gif.196eb1becafbaf5066a7fdfab0b59c32.gif

Shannons not only in the room , she has pulled up a chair and slapped her feet on the table. 

The general theme is almost identical with zero heights to our  North. The only place they vary is on timing of cold zonal pressure systems.

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

An odd run I thought from the EC Det. A thought backed up by the graph form. Very up and down and on it’s own by D10

FEFE2EC0-93C5-48A2-97B4-1BD2E70B38E7.thumb.png.0a8bb2427903f46ba238bdafcf904e92.png

Just goes to show models are all over the place, really poor, just no point arguing about them right now particularly with regards to anything past D5.

Can I suggest something, just keep an eye on them for a couple of days to see if we can get a bit more consistency, and concentrate on the next 48 hours or so, this is the first decent chance this winter of widespread snowfall, could be something for most of us if we are lucky.;)

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