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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Looks great from my viiew point

To coin a phrase it’s “dyer”.

Anyway, it’s just one operational run.  Will hopefully sit on the mild side of the ensembles - we’ll know in about one hour.

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh dear oh dear oh dear the runs are getting worse as the days go on . Bet my house the extended eps are even worse tonight . It’s going one way the wrong way . 

Yep. I think all those of a cold persuasion should receive a medal for incredible patience this winter. It's been tortuous. 

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15 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Who expected that at t216 following the t192 output? Not me for sure 😩😩

8ACE819F-85AC-46BD-8EF0-47DA492555DA.png

Good lord. That is awful. 

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1 minute ago, danm said:

Good lord. That is awful. 

Agreed but ukmo would go a different route imo. Let’s see where it sits but I think/hope it’s a wrongun 👍👍

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Well what an awful ecm that was. This winter really is turning into a shocker. All the positive we seem to have had and looks like heading for a total bust. Ec46 has been garbage this winter. First it was a pattern change after Christmas. Then the big change was around the 10th January. If I’d got a pound for a 10 day chart this winter I’d be a very rich man. Just feels this winter just isn’t going to happen for the majority of the U.K. at least looks like some helpful rain in next few weeks if ecm verifies. 😡

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17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

 

NW half of the country (plus Wales!) look snowy and cold, the SE half (though E.Midlands probably joins in with the snow) broadly more changeable temps and *mainly* rain (can't rule out a well placed LP/trough like the 12z GFS op had). If things really do get as cyclonic as the GFS 12z op wants, possible flooding issues may arise for some to the south of the snow line, though the dry first half of Jan will probably limit that somewhat.

Great, so northern areas get the lovely white stuff, whilst us down south get cold rain and potential floods!!  

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12 minutes ago, mulzy said:

To coin a phrase it’s “dyer”.

Anyway, it’s just one operational run.  Will hopefully sit on the mild side of the ensembles - we’ll know in about one hour.

I think (hope) it's ballsed up the progression between 168 and 192. It just seems wrong.

Edited by Johnp
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Just now, chris55 said:

The next phase is yet to be decided.... the models are feeling around for the new trend.

background singnals are good.....

watch this space...

Feb will come in like a lion 🦁 

 

 

..Or March? ECM absolutely shocking. 

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1 minute ago, terrier said:

Well what an awful ecm that was. This winter really is turning into a shocker. All the positive we seem to have had and looks like heading for a total bust. Ec46 has been garbage this winter. First it was a pattern change after Christmas. Then the big change was around the 10th January. If I’d got a pound for a 10 day chart this winter I’d be a very rich man. Just feels this winter just isn’t going to happen for the majority of the U.K. at least looks like some helpful rain in next few weeks if ecm verifies. 😡

The ec46 did exactly the same two or three years ago. 

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1 minute ago, terrier said:

Well what an awful ecm that was. This winter really is turning into a shocker. All the positive we seem to have had and looks like heading for a total bust. Ec46 has been garbage this winter. First it was a pattern change after Christmas. Then the big change was around the 10th January. If I’d got a pound for a 10 day chart this winter I’d be a very rich man. Just feels this winter just isn’t going to happen for the majority of the U.K. at least looks like some helpful rain in next few weeks if ecm verifies. 😡

Whenever has the ECM verified once this Winter? 😛

Never in a million years am I thinking we're heading for a total bust this Winter. Still countless factors in our favour in the next 6 weeks for something Wintry. Keep the patience!

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2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I think (hope) it's ballsed up the progression between 192 and 216. It just seems wrong.

But the 192 chart hardly looks promising. 

ECH1-192 (1).gif

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1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The ec46 did exactly the same two or three years ago. 

Which is why we should calm down (I'm talking to you  Feb!) when it's run later this evening goes belly up. Why believe it now when it's been garbage for two months?

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1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

But the 192 chart hardly looks promising. 

ECH1-192 (1).gif

Yep, once that 192 chart was up, it was over as far as this run was concerned.  Anyway, let's pray it's a crazy outlier.

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2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

But the 192 chart hardly looks promising. 

ECH1-192 (1).gif

See my edit!

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4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

The next phase is yet to be decided.... the models are feeling around for the new trend.

background singnals are good.....

watch this space...

Feb will come in like a lion 🦁 

 

 

The way it going , probably a knackered out old one with half of its teeth missing, and blunt claws  😜

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7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

 

Ooops...accidentally quoted instead of just replying!

I get the feeling the a big sea change in the models is coming back to us tomorrow.  They've recently taken us away from the stonking charts of a few days ago, but it's not like they are maintaining a constant outlook. The outlooks have been relatively poor without being all that consistent in showing us why they will be poor.  Something in my bones tells me they are doing a 360 degree look around of all the options and will gradually start coming back close to what they were showing us at the back end of last week, in a nearer timeframe.  I expect to see the word "stonking" more than "stinking"  back in use to describe the model runs from tomorrow  

Edited by Timmytour
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1 minute ago, 78/79 said:

The way it going , probably a knackered out old one with half of its teeth missing, and blunt claws  😜

Shih Tzu more likely

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1 minute ago, 78/79 said:

The way it going , probably a knackered out old one with half of its teeth missing, and blunt claws  😜

What I would give right now for half of what winter 78/79 gave 🙂

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9 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Whenever has the ECM verified once this Winter? 😛

Never in a million years am I thinking we're heading for a total bust this Winter. Still countless factors in our favour in the next 6 weeks for something Wintry. Keep the patience!

if my memory serves me right it was the first model to show the failed easterly a few days ago it took another 2 days before the other models caught  on to this and then they  dropped it but if it shows the same thing tomorrow morning well its as good as over sadly once again

Edited by igloo
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This Winter is starting to feel a little like Winter 2016/17 so far. I'm sure it was that one that showed a lot of potential early on, only to keep getting pushed back to the point where Spring finally arrived without a true Winter before it.

Was hoping for better after last Winter. Although the peak of that Winter didn't arrive until the very end of February and on into March, so there's still a fair few weeks left as far as the  possibility of a proper cold and snowy spell are concerned. At least last Winter though, here in the Midlands at least we had our first proper snow fix with the slider in early December 17 and there were a few odd wintry snaps with a little snow between then and the beast in late February/early March 18. So at least to this point so far last Winter was already much better than this one. 

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