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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

ECM 96h  image.thumb.png.9d055fb53257e6f57c273a01d286fb41.png

That looks like a stonker 🤣🤣🤣

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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

12Z update - apologies if it has been posted already.

nmmgif.thumb.gif.30b75145c7bd4064e7a7320f0f31c8ae.gif

I preferred yesterday’s. The green bit that passes me was pink.  😄

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37 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

If you are referring to me, I did say I hoped my feedback was constructive (thus not a “complaint”). 

Don't worry Paul, I wasn't...It was just that the thread's topic had wandered into the Land of Vintage Whines!😁

Edited by Ed Stone
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image.thumb.png.18fa1cc68391f0a1d3d4fff42a64154b.png  Seems like a mini low feature.  Don't really want to call it a polar low though.

Around 12.00 frame

Edited by Had Worse
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6 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

image.thumb.png.18fa1cc68391f0a1d3d4fff42a64154b.png  Seems like a mini low feature.  Don't really want to call it a polar low though.

Around 12.00 frame

Is that for lunch time tomorrow🤔

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Is that for lunch time tomorrow🤔

Yes

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I'd be very cautious of the EURO4 snowfall accumulation chart it's very zealous. 

Colder uppers of - 7/-8 dig in around noon so inland areas should see snow falling, you'd need a streamer, trough or more organised spell of snow to see anything lying. 

The uppers aren't cold enough to allow snow to accumulate and stay between showers. I'd be weary of the onshore wind across NW England hampering the chance of falling snow as well. 

So a wintry day tomorrow, just hope you get stuck under something more persistent. 

 

Edited by Cheese Rice
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144h looks very good. Good angle of attack plus a slider looks likely from the NW on next frame image.thumb.png.b02b6ebb7bbb5e2d64ccb6625c373ae9.png

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1 minute ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'd be very cautious of the EURO4 snowfall accumulation chart it's very zealous. 

Colder uppers of - 7/-8 dig in around noon so inland areas should see snow falling, you'd need a streamer, trough or more organised spell of snow to see anything lying. 

The uppers aren't cold enough to allow snow to accumulate and stay between showers. I'd be weary of the onshore wind across NW England hampering the chance of falling snow as well. 

So a wintry day tomorow, just hope you get stuck under something more persistent. 

 

Yep looks more like a wintry mix tomorrow, with more meaningful snow showers in favoured NW areas. 

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11 hours ago, Jackski4 said:

Are minus 8 uppers enough for the UK to be very cold with a potential easterly on the cards?

-8 can be cold enough for snow but I’ve heard before that uppers were -10 and rain fell still. That’s quite a rare occurrence though, usually it only has to be -5 uppers for it to snow but who knows. The easterly flow is almost definitely not going to happen in the short term but next week by the end of this month and start of feb we could start to see the ssw effects finally reaching the trophosphere and high latitude blocking may occur as the jet stream is showing signs of diving southeast which could allow the polar wind reversal effects to give us an easterly wind of high pressure forms northeast of the uk

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Winter Sale Now On!

 2 wedges for the price of 1

ECH1-144.GIF

Edited by kumquat
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2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

ECM 144 setting up for a slider and snow event incoming

Not with the warm sector unfortunately...

ECMOPEU12_168_2.png

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-7 to -8 uppers in mid winter. Plus dew points below freezing, wet bulb level between 0 and 100 m, and low air thickness (522 dam). Struggling to see where the marginality is for snow tomorrow, for anywhere with a small bit of elevation. Seen snow showers falling and settling quite widely with far worse parameters.

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7 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

144h looks very good. Good angle of attack plus a slider looks likely from the NW on next frame image.thumb.png.b02b6ebb7bbb5e2d64ccb6625c373ae9.png

I prefer ukmo. 👍 t144 gfs ukmo and ecm have enough differences for fi to be t96/120 imo. 

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

-7 to -8 uppers in mid winter. Plus dew points below freezing, wet bulb level between 0 and 100 m, and low air thickness (522 dam). Struggling to see where the marginality is for snow tomorrow, for anywhere with a small bit of elevation. Seen snow showers falling and settling quite widely with far worse parameters.

I don’t doubt snow will fall but it’s no good when it falls and turns the ground wet and not white 😏

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

-7 to -8 uppers in mid winter. Plus dew points below freezing, wet bulb level between 0 and 100 m, and low air thickness (522 dam). Struggling to see where the marginality is for snow tomorrow, for anywhere with a small bit of elevation. Seen snow showers falling and settling quite widely with far worse parameters.

Manchester snow shield will deflect anything as it stands i'd imagine. Possible long period of rain and a bit of snow dissolving onto wet ground for 20 minutes, but that's all I can see at the moment. 

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Nice bit of colder air again at T192 

70413F5D-AD37-4F33-9F3E-1126578BB54D.png

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I don’t doubt snow will fall but it’s no good when it falls and turns the ground wet and not white 😏

With those parameters and an icy start to the day for many, I’m also struggling to understand why anything would struggle to stick.

Edited by MattStoke
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Things definitely looking on the up

After the weekend very interesting 

Spell could be on his way

ECM 192 looks good

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Just a heads up that a thread has been started for tonight/tomorrows snow potential.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

With those parameters and an icy start to the day for many, I’m also struggling to understand why anything would struggle to stick.

Yer that will be the prime time for it to settle early morning after a hard frost . Not that I’m exspecting any down here but the euro4 shows me under a pink blob so you never no . You should get some tho . 

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5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

-7 to -8 uppers in mid winter. Plus dew points below freezing, wet bulb level between 0 and 100 m, and low air thickness (522 dam). Struggling to see where the marginality is for snow tomorrow, for anywhere with a small bit of elevation. Seen snow showers falling and settling quite widely with far worse parameters.

Also with the showers your going to see the snow level come down somewhat anyway thorough evaporative cooling. The snow shouldn't be marginal bar maybe right at the coast.

Settling snow should happen BUT whether or not they have staying power, especially given how warm the surface still is given how relatively mild December was and also given the fact the low level will be moderate quite a lot by the Irish Sea, a lot is going to depend on the frequency of the showers, because there will certainly be melting inbetween the showers.

Also GFS para is again a tale of two halves.

NW half of the country (plus Wales!) look snowy and cold, the SE half (though E.Midlands probably joins in with the snow) broadly more changeable temps and *mainly* rain (can't rule out a well placed LP/trough like the 12z GFS op had). If things really do get as cyclonic as the GFS 12z op wants, possible flooding issues may arise for some to the south of the snow line, though the dry first half of Jan will probably limit that somewhat.

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Hard to see how the SSW affected our weather in any way whatsoever. It was a fail imo. Cold zonal looks to see out January with snow mostly reserved for Northern parts. As for February who knows probably a continued mix of cold and mild. I actually told family and friends a major cold spell was coming end of January. Will learn for future winters lol

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