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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon All-

Im really suprised that noone has picked up on the UKMO 144-

Heights to the NE & a diving jet usually spells Easterly ( around 168 )

58D2B0C9-E356-47E4-9A44-5493528D87A3.thumb.jpeg.c34b7f812429f8cb0f03daff883b15bd.jpeg

I think members are feeling a bit jaded after the last time we saw your charts with these arrows 🙈  

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35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Geez! Some folks do love to complain!:wallbash:

If you are referring to me, I did say I hoped my feedback was constructive (thus not a “complaint”). 

32 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yeah I know, I was just confused where to post, but I’m over that.  I actually like the bit of freedom this thread gives for a bit of humour rather than “it must be deep model analysis only”!

You can’t have your cake and eat it, although it appears that’s what some are after 😂🤷‍♂️ 

anyway, easterly on the cards again! Pass me a beer!

It’s not about that, as I said it’s about getting the balance right. It’s not about “having your cake and eating it”. 

Anyway, the models continue to tease....let’s hopes it’s not another wild goose chase. Plenty of winter left yet, is not as if we’re in March approaching April!

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

I think members are feeling a bit jaded after the last time we saw your charts with these arrows 🙈  

He never went above 80% chance but people only read what they want to read👍👍

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26 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

If we are asking people to cross post in two threads, or have mods copy posts into the “correct” thread, then I think we have identified a problem!

Or, we're simply giving a new thread an opportunity to bed in and making people aware of its existence and what it's about. 

The truth is, that this thread is identical to the hunt for cold thread we started the winter with. The only difference is the word banter in the title so that expectations in terms of the content are set accordingly. The other thread is the same as the 'general model' thread was at that time too, again the only difference is the name. People complained when we got rid of those and went back to the model thread + banter approach too. We've gone back to plan a, but with a tiny tweak or two, that's all.

I think people are seeing the model discussion is a bit less busy than it was on friday and saturday, adding 2+2 together on that front and coming up with 100. It's all much as it was though, this thread is still lively - in fact yesterday and today have seen more model posts than all but 2 days this month (the 18th and 19th Jan), it's just that they were exceptionally busy days - first with easterly chat and second with ire over a failed easterly, but regardless of thread layout that rush has eased.

Anyway, we could go on forever about this, pm is the way to go for further discussion before we make this thread extremely off topic. 

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I noticed NW kent has gone pink !!!!

Yes that is an awful lot of change for me 😂😂

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4 minutes ago, James Gold said:

Yes that is an awful lot of change for me 😂😂

There more chance of snow cover on the trough than on the main front

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Dont shoot the messenger!

Do you want me add disclaimers to the arrows...

Only jesting, it’s no ones fault it went Pete tong and I admire your eternal optimism. Personally I’ve given up on an easterly in Jan. just hope for us in the south we can get at least some transient snow from potent PM shots. Tomorrow looks good and there’s another chance on Sunday.

slightly off topic but are moderators / site forum aware of the issue that must be causing massive frustration to members - Previoisly you could stay signed in on your phone or tablet. Now you have to repeatedly accept the privacy notification or accept settings and re-sign in every time, even if you have just come out of the tab very briefly !?

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15 minutes ago, cowdog said:

As this pattern is a downgrade for the South, while a upgrade for the North - if you want snow.

image.thumb.png.4029c4adf2d5e133f3f6b683c22428dd.png

Still good for me and I'm in the south! 🙂 

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Hi gang  ,with regards the outlook ,some juicy looking charts about  can't wait for the Ecm tonight  from behind the settee with the dog wagging his tail if they are good .This sub forum reminds me of my military days  we are all a little bit naughty ,but we are the wild bunch ,still highly trained and will HUNT THE COLD AND SNOW , present weather front on radar looks impressive, is this the Advance guard of Winter ,hope so  let's get the mild mush of this Friday out the way then hope and pray ,cheers gang .

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Just now, legritter said:

Hi gang  ,with regards the outlook ,some juicy looking charts about  can't wait for the Ecm tonight  from behind the settee with the dog wagging his tail if they are good .This sub forum reminds me of my military days  we are all a little bit naughty ,but we are the wild bunch ,still highly trained and will HUNT THE COLD AND SNOW , present weather front on radar looks impressive, is this the Advance guard of Winter ,hope so  let's get the mild mush of this Friday out the way then hope and pray ,cheers gang .

Where’s my stella? 😄😄

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4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Only jesting, it’s no ones fault it went Pete tong and I admire your eternal optimism. Personally I’ve given up on an easterly in Jan. just hope for us in the south we can get at least some transient snow from potent PM shots. Tomorrow looks good and there’s another chance on Sunday.

slightly off topic but are moderators / site forum aware of the issue that must be causing massive frustration to members - Previoisly you could stay signed in on your phone or tablet. Now you have to repeatedly accept the privacy notification or accept settings and re-sign in every time, even if you have just come out of the tab very briefly !?

I've not had this problem on my samsung phone  🖒

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1 minute ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I've not had this problem on my samsung phone  🖒

0r me on my 6310i! stay signed in no probs

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I've responded to Tim's question about his phone on pm, so perhaps we can make it that any further tech help stuff goes up into the help/feedback forum. Thanks. 

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3 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I've not had this problem on my samsung phone  🖒

Agreed. No issue for me either (Samsung S8).

Edited by Bristle boy

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51 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

I did Steve thought I was seeing things that weren't there when no one else posted about it

Mentioned several times today on other thread

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26 minutes ago, cowdog said:

As this pattern is a downgrade for the South, while a upgrade for the North - if you want snow.

jolly good 🤞

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In the last 5 minutes, the back edge of the rain has turned readily to rain/snow so possible some surprises in the morning? 

image.thumb.png.947e4636b75dd334b0b30accfa570e4a.png

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My two pennies worth is that if this thread is the most busy then it's proof that the majority of people prefer a bit of a lighter/less strict approach to model discussion, especially when excited/annoyed and snow chances! @Paul you do a great job and I don't envy you one bit, lol!

Anyway, you can tell we've reached that time of year where charts that would've been raved about in past years are a bit "meh, whatevs" lol! But the cold is still showing and as we always say "get the cold in" so I guess we should be thankful for that..... for now!

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Never seen model runs can't change their minds!! Last few days it was showing the Easterly, yesterday they are showing some sort  of Atlantic breakthrough and now they are showing an Arctic blast early next week!!

😂

 

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