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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

imageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eGFSOPEU12_276_1.png

Let’s ave it

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Very interesting GFS run between 240-276hrs, the upper low JUST stays far enough east so that there isn't too much warm wrapping into the flow. The north keeps the colder air, the south enters less cold air but should join the party.

ANOTHER snow event for the Midlands as well on this run, that's lime the 4/5th shot of snow?

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

imageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eGFSOPEU12_276_1.png

Deep cold to tap into rather lacking, hope the source improves!

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Just now, Nick F said:

Deep cold to tap into rather lacking, hope the source improves!

Yep this says it all 🙁

8BE28602-019D-4307-97FE-C56E8A022550.png

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The good thing on this run is that the pv has moved further away from the nw 👍

E6C2C148-38D5-46D4-A4FE-72F22C521F10.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Deep cold to tap into rather lacking, hope the source improves!

Unfortunately this is going to be what kills us down here in the south, without any deep cold we are at the mercy of the LP track to come down far enough EAST so we don't have an onshore flow which in marginal set-ups is a major problem. All but one of the snow set-ups so far on the 12z GFS will be rain for the south. Heck, could have a flooding issue based on this run!

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep this says it all 🙁

8BE28602-019D-4307-97FE-C56E8A022550.png

The last Easterly chase started the same way.

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Just now, frosty ground said:

The last Easterly chase started the same way.

Yes frosty it did, loads of time for it to get better that’s if it keeps showing 👍

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An interesting trend from the GFS but you need to have the low further east .

If you don’t you end up with Med air flowing nw into central and eastern Europe. That’s why energy heading se is important . The irony of this run is the upstream pattern amplifies too much at the wrong time .

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So the easterly has vanished and instead we're looking at winds from the NW...

COSMIC.

2CB5E32900000578-4362570-image-m-34_1490831363913.jpg

Edited by Sawel

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Just now, Sawel said:

So the easterly has vanished and instead we're looking at winds from the NW instead...

COSMIC.

 

 

2CB5E32900000578-4362570-image-m-34_1490831363913.jpg

But keep looking over your shoulder Rodney!

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

imageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eGFSOPEU12_276_1.png

OMG yet another wild goose chase 

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End of the run sees the pattern resetting back towards what we are going to see this week as the upper blocking shifts eastwards.

Overall this run is:

1: Cold for a majority of the time.

2: Snowy for Midlands north. some exposed parts in NW England, Scotland, Ireland, etc could see very large falls of snow simplat due to how stubborn this NW airflow becomes, regardless of fronts.

3: South is very wet, maybe the odd transient snow event but get the rowing boats out because all the good stuff is to the north!

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Assume tomorrow may well be a good dump of snow with a rain follow through. Or not depending what the Gods think.

This sort of setup I recall as providing some of the most memorable snowfalls. Albeit short lived.

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

End of the run sees the pattern resetting back towards what we are going to see this week as the upper blocking shifts eastwards.

Overall this run is:

1: Cold for a majority of the time.

2: Snowy for Midlands north. some exposed parts in NW England, Scotland, Ireland, etc could see very large falls of snow simplat due to how stubborn this NW airflow becomes, regardless of fronts.

3: South is very wet, maybe the odd transient snow event but get the rowing boats out because all the good stuff is to the north!

Hmmm Wales is part of the British Isles you know 🙂....and it’s bigger than people think...so North and South usually experience differences in weather

Edited by WINTRY WALES

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The way this winter's going, the baby'll be a teenager by the time it does us any good...?👶

image.thumb.png.172d3c303e7c30df76870a9620b29839.png

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1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Regarding the threads - I understand why the mods did what they did - however for me the balance has tipped too much the other way in that there is just too much chaff in here.

I personally don't like all the one liners, and a lot of the chit-chat is just inane. The other "focused" thread is just too quiet, although appreciate this may be due to the failed easterly.

In summary, the balance is not quote right and I feel something has been lost with the new threads. Hope this is seen as constructive.

I am feeling your pain. I understand why it was done, but I am not liking this format. I could skip through the one liners before and look for my favoured posters, but it has totally thrown me. I'm watching 2 threads and its becoming too time consuming to try and catch up with both. Sorry mods

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6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

But keep looking over your shoulder Rodney!

😉 His left one

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Threads fine as they are - don't listen Paul.

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It just takes some getting used to - posted in the wrong one yesterday and also had a debate i shouldn't have had but that will get better.

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7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Regarding the threads - I understand why the mods did what they did - however for me the balance has tipped too much the other way in that there is just too much chaff in here.

I personally don't like all the one liners, and a lot of the chit-chat is just inane. The other "focused" thread is just too quiet, although appreciate this may be due to the failed easterly.

In summary, the balance is not quote right and I feel something has been lost with the new threads. Hope this is seen as constructive.

Absolutely agree,particularly with the last point.

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45 minutes ago, Paul said:

It's a co-incidence - the thread traffic and posting eased once the potential easterly bit the dust, as it often does when a potential cold spell fades. It'll then pick up again when people have had a bit of a break and when there's another cold spell showing up in the nearish future.

As for where to post, it's actually not very different to the setup previously when we had the hunt for cold thread. You can use both threads if you wish, the focused one is quieter by design with no banter and just model chat, so maybe a good spot for more considered opinions once runs have completed etc. This one is the same hunt for cold thread as previously, albeit with the word banter in the title so people are aware that as well as the model chat, some bantery off topic stuff is allowed too. 

This split should in theory give everyone what they want - if you want banter with your models, this thread is great. If you want a quieter, banter-free discussion head to the other one. Or, if you like both, maybe cross-post the posts you maybe don't want to get lost in amongst the general chatter in here. 

 

Sounds good in theory Paul but this change isn't great imo, many of the posters I'm interested in reading what they have to say regarding the models are posting in here and not the other thread, or they cross post if I'm really lucky but usually I'm left trawling through all the banter searching for the model output! I don't really fancy adding loads of users to my ignore list just to make this thread a lot quicker & easier to navigate but I can see myself ending up going down that route lol.

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