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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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The models seem to gathering momentum for high pressure to get further north .

Whats lacking at the moment is enough energy disrupting se. You can see on the day ten GFS 06 hrs run the issue there.

However given the overnight changes we shouldn’t assume this is the end of the story .

The latest update re the MJO suggested the ECM forecast is more likely to verify than the GFS/GEFS as the latter tends to overdo Rossby wave activity and those aren’t coupled with the ocean.

And the GFS and GEFS were completely wrong re the recent MJO movements.

 

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Just what is it with gfs sticking it's finger up to us, is it trying to sell us something! Amazing uppers off the coast of Greenland and to our east, big contrast to the +10 uppers of this week. 

gfs-1-384.png

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Looking at the GFS 6z operational / GEFS 6z mean in the longer term there are certainly signs that early March could produce something with a more wintry flavour..with a chance of snow for some areas!❄👍

Edited by Frosty.

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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The models seem to gathering momentum for high pressure to get further north .

Whats lacking at the moment is enough energy disrupting se. You can see on the day ten GFS 06 hrs run the issue there.

However given the overnight changes we shouldn’t assume this is the end of the story .

The latest update re the MJO suggested the ECM forecast is more likely to verify than the GFS/GEFS as the latter tends to overdo Rossby wave activity and those aren’t coupled with the ocean.

And the GFS and GEFS were completely wrong re the recent MJO movements.

 

The ECM goes through phase 8 to phase 3 in 14 days at low amplitude. Bearing in mind the lack of MJO feedback this winter, isn't this likely to be a transient fluid pattern?

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.thumb.gif.160227710b87f8f9afaf933d21ee0bdc.gif

I agree to ECM more likely to be correct. I just think that the MJO isn't a driver for wintry UK weather at the moment.

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1 hour ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

But you never know, I’m hopeful too

  oh don’t get me wrong I am trying to be hopeful how ever looking at the model runs these are worthy of late spring not late winter as I said I am trying to have last bit of hope but going by this winter I don’t hold out much. 😔

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Locking this one for now, fresh thread here:

 

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