Jump to content
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

When’s the last time we actually had a decent long cold spell in January? I can think of only one in the last 20 years and that was 2010. One sub 3c Jan in the same period?

Perhaps time to accept that it’s no longer possible to get one when the PV/Jet is at its peak during winter? Hence why the good spells tend to come at the start & end of winter.

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 12.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

Posted Images

Just now, Gustywind said:

When’s the last time we actually had a decent long cold spell in January? I can think of only one in the last 20 years and that was 2010. One sub 3c Jan in the same period?

Perhaps time to accept that it’s no longer possible to get one when the PV/Jet is at its peak during winter? Hence why the good spells tend to come at the start & end of winter.

It’s not a question of it not being possible....but the dynamics of the atmosphere dictate that the PV zonal winds are strongest in the middle of winter, and weaker either side of this - hence the old more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas adage. It’s just how it is and always will be, sadly.

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

We knew a few days ago that we would have to look in the 10 plus day period again for any significant cold. No point complaining about it, let's hope we can hit the jackpot this time. Would still be early February, that is an ideal scenario compared to most years. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Gustywind said:

When’s the last time we actually had a decent long cold spell in January? I can think of only one in the last 20 years and that was 2010. One sub 3c Jan in the same period?

Perhaps time to accept that it’s no longer possible to get one when the PV/Jet is at its peak during winter? Hence why the good spells tend to come at the start & end of winter.

I can except that in a standard winter but this year the background noise , ssw etc etc favoured something achally in winter and that’s why I think everyone is so disappointed . Couple that with the failed easterly that just went titts up at pretty short range , that’s just tipped us all over the edge lol . ?

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

2206 should be fully out but can be delayed, however, we will have a fair idea whether its previous output was rubbish and the trend is mildening by the temperature charts a2 hours before.

I think we already know that the last few ec46 Runs were wrong for January at least. I won’t be trusting its outlook for feb going by recent standards !

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

On the up side - yes no frigid and sustained Easterly on the horizon but the charts (including this mornings 06z) do still indicate quite a bit of potential for disturbance mixed with marginal cold which could deliver a dollop or 2 of decent snow falls for some lucky places.... sometimes this is even better for snowfall than an easterly for certain locations (but not all granted). Cambridgeshire happens to be one of those locations better off with this scenario ! 

Some good chart watching to be done on precipitation forecasts I feel once we get into the slightly colder uppers.... 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the big worry is the trend.  I am happy to wait 10 days or so for that something special but even in the extended range, things are not looking as rosy as they were a few days ago.  We need this trend to be overturned as soon as possible.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
  • Sad 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ghoneym said:

1032 DD  on Wednesday, mother nature getting her bikini on ?

560065825_doublehigh.thumb.PNG.0611165655c889049efc432e9e2476d6.PNG

Great post great chart. This explains /Shows clearly the huge problem where we live .

the massive high that just what seems like permanently sits there. It guides weather systems over the top of it giving us mostly westerly/sw or NW flows. 

This high has to be one of the strongest stubourn weather phenomena out there. 

Now if it could move further Eastward back in to the Atlantic or move much further north then that would be brilliant but so rarely does this happen so we get the usual Dross. 

Why it stays in the same spot day after day month after month especially in winter !! 

At least in summer it does migrate N/E to give us nice summers sometimes but in winter it's so stubourn . 

Over the years this high has become stronger and more stubourn . 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

After last Winters double Easterly, it would be prudent to remember just how often these situations,sometimes even shown in the 'reliable timeframes' have gone the way of the pear down the years.I think we even lost an Easterly with 48hrs notice once.

Not really in my nature to be negative in life but the saying ' if it can go wrong it will go wrong' seems to be the best way of viewing anything from that direction during the Winter, come May...the perfect synoptic set up of course if it were Mid January.

( for some reason My auto correct kept going with " come Theresa May the perfect synoptic set up had it been January" given the state of politics right now I can't see that coming off any more than an Easterly!

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Updated euro4 looking good for tomorrow, not much on the cold front but lots of wintry showers behind, accumulations looking good, quite rare this for euro4 in this bleak old winter. NW doing best.:oldgrin: 

19012212_2106.gif

19012215_2106.gif

19012218_2106.gif

19012303_2106.gif

19012306_2106.gif

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I can except that in a standard winter but this year the background noise , ssw etc etc favoured something achally in winter and that’s why I think everyone is so disappointed . Couple that with the failed easterly that just went titts up at pretty short range , that’s just tipped us all over the edge lol . ?

Yes I agree & yet still we’ve been unable to get the HLB required. It just seems a lot more difficult to achieve in the height of winter these days, remember several very cold Jans in late 70s & 80s, they seem almost impossible these days,

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s not a question of it not being possible....but the dynamics of the atmosphere dictate that the PV zonal winds are strongest in the middle of winter, and weaker either side of this - hence the old more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas adage. It’s just how it is and always will be, sadly.

Maybe the Jet will weaken if more fresh water is ejected to desalinate the oceans as is supposedly happening .  We could get much colder winters if this were the case as the GS slows down in the 150wide corridor . 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I think the big worry is the trend.  I am happy to wait 10 days or so for that something special but even in the extended range, things are not looking as rosy as they were a few days ago.  We need this trend to be overturned as soon as possible.

Thought that’s why no one had really posted on them this morning ?. So bloody annoying mulzy . 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hot off the press (Apologies if already posted). Snow accumulation up to 6am Wednesday, from the Euro4. Some may scoff but, this is one of the most reliable high resolution models for snow accumulation and the parameters look good for snow even at modest elevation.

19012306_2_2106.gif

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing has changed, its the normal strong Azores high and continuous low pressure south of Greenland. PM air giving some sleet and snow to the hills in the north etc.

Certainly no sign of real cold, just normal winter fare, with temps I guess slightly below average. No ice days, no lying snow, just damp coldish, wet weather with sunny spells in between.

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The difference between tropical thunderstorm activity and the NAO is, I believe, that whereas the former is an active 'driver', in that it actually causes things to happen, the NAO is merely a glorified subtraction, an end-product of events occurring elsewhere...? I guess that's why I pay no attention to it, whatsoever...

It does not matter really what you call it but what matters is the inaccuracy of NWP to predict height anomalies in that region that are a key component to what weather UK/IE gets

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...