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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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7 hours ago, Singularity said:

Phase 1 is what I’m looking at a possible lagged response to, which doesn’t need as much Nino cooperation to force some HLB, usually aligned through Greenland-Iceland vicinity.

Phases 2-3 are indeed different, supporting blocking near-east of the UK more at mid-late like we have now, but as I said, I’m a bit sceptical of EPS’ fast propagation on through these. 

Just my thoughts; I am not seeing any MJO forcing at the moment. What I see is a trop response to the current pattern. The wave train has ground to a temporary halt, due to extensive troughing to the east, and the UK arena is at the end of the line. Some energy from those HP cells is building north, to release that pressure, whilst the main thrust works a route to the south. That is why we are only seeing wedges into HL. They are not sustainable if the forcing is not from the MJO.

Looking at the 500hPa temps I am not seeing wave propagation into higher latitudes:

anim_asb7.gif

With wedges they will move within the flow so any cold steered to the UK will be temporary.

Although there are some models suggesting the current active Rossy Wave interference may be subdued, we still have the downwelling Kelvin Wave mixing out the MJO signal (composite). Maybe the MJO lagged feedback will come later, but I am unsure why with the constructive interference so far this winter we can suddenly expect the MJO to override the base trop pattern?

As for the models, this is 10 days away and we know they tend to overhype any pattern change and downgrade as we move to T0, so if it is indeed another false dawn we shall see that in the next day or so as newer data conflicts with climate composites.

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22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM is a cold outlier unsurprisingly

London

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.0e1702faf062cdd7dfccfb4d823bc69a.png

Southern Scotland it goes both warmer and colder than the mean 24th onwards

sco.thumb.png.0caaf5337e8979575116a795d9aa8e8a.png

Bearing in mind cross model op agreement on that outcome ECM ens could just be lagging behind the curve somewhat and even they are still trending downwards. Could be a false dawn like so many this winter. Like I said earlier not getting excited at all but a trend to watch as we enter March.

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Not without interest to the non towel chuckers

gens_panel_ypm4.png

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3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Looks like tight isobar maybe correct, could be a huge downturn in temps as we head in to March, AGAIN. 

I think it's happening AGAIN we have had two wintry Marches in 5 years and maybe AGAIN, incredibly fascinating that March is the new winter month😅❄️

Look at the latest ecm! Northeasterlies maybe!

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Pleased to see at least some glimmers of hope for coldies on the 00z runs longer term..better that than another 384 hours + of mild benign!👍

The lack of rain is also a concern with a drier than average winter which could cause problems if it continues through spring into summer!

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Pleased to see at least some glimmers of hope for coldies on the 00z runs longer term..better that than another 384 hours + of mild benign!👍

The lack of rain is also a concern with a drier than average winter which could cause problems if it continues through spring into summer!

I really hope the northeasterly wind wins out! Scandinavia will be cold enough by then after this awful mild spell

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26 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Definately not over?

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.92cbac85a875c2856c13a9ac0a63e860.png

 

 

....FI

BANK!

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To all those who have thrown in the towel:

There is still the rest of Feb, all of March and a bit of April when it can still snow so it's still far too early to throw it in, even if the winter won't have snow. Sure, throw in the towel on the winter, it's very unlikely that anything will happen now but there's still so much time. I've had my snow this year though! 😉🙂 It's like an apology for all those times when those south of the M4 missed out.

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Morning all 🙂

It does look as though, as IDO so thoroughly explains, any attempt to retrogress heights to the NW at the turn of the month looks to be on a very temporary basis.

The 00Z GFS OP soon brings back a vigorous Atlantic but more than a hint of the jet heading south as we move into March - not unusual in itself as this is when the battle between the colder and warmer airmasses which heralds spring takes place. It may be the faux spring we are enjoying now will be a false dawn as we move into March.

The Parallel is less inspiring though both models build significant heights across the Pole - the OP almost flushes all the energy out of the Canadian PV.

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22 minutes ago, stodge said:

Morning all 🙂

It does look as though, as IDO so thoroughly explains, any attempt to retrogress heights to the NW at the turn of the month looks to be on a very temporary basis.

The 00Z GFS OP soon brings back a vigorous Atlantic but more than a hint of the jet heading south as we move into March - not unusual in itself as this is when the battle between the colder and warmer airmasses which heralds spring takes place. It may be the faux spring we are enjoying now will be a false dawn as we move into March.

The Parallel is less inspiring though both models build significant heights across the Pole - the OP almost flushes all the energy out of the Canadian PV.

Really!!??.

As per my previous post, retro-is looking more solid by the hour/or per run 2 run slots..

And as guided 'now pacific'..conversion to an eye watering pole annom..my bet would be even starker..in the retrogression prog, also the catchment of sub zero polar continental air..is imo still quite miss modeled...in regards to decipher of the hp-cell movement.

Lets see where we go through the rest of today aye!?.

I think to say temporary...is a big big punt...

 

 

gfsnh-0-204.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Hi there split? ECM going for it too. March colder than any of winter months? Definitely looks like a shake up.

56C2FF97-C8CD-4D1D-9306-610D7D380857.thumb.jpeg.3f3280bd7360c19757256a7e77d54265.jpeg

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34 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Really!!??.

As per my previous post, retro-is looking more solid by the hour/or per run 2 run slots..

And as guided 'now pacific'..conversion to an eye watering pole annom..my bet would be even starker..in the retrogression prog, also the catchment of sub zero polar continental air..is imo still quite miss modeled...in regards to decipher of the hp-cell movement.

Lets see where we go through the rest of today aye!?.

I think to say temporary...is a big big punt...

 

 

gfsnh-0-204.png

Cmon buddy i admire your positivity but nothings going to come of this lol!!!its over lets just face it!!enjoy next 6 to 7 months of warmth!!fingers crossed!!

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Alongside MJO phase 1 not needing the a Nino-base state to increase heights due N and NNW of the UK anyway (note - a neg AO not necessarily required; neutral would suffice, maybe even weakly positive), it's also possible that the Nina-like interference is showing signs of taking a break or even dissipating at long last; this is difficult to foresee as there aren't any available spatial plots of AAM derived from the model output; there's been persistent -AAM at 30*N that represents the main component of the Nina-like interference. If that gives way, like it did for a short time late Jan, then the jet my find its way back into mainland Europe for at least a little while.

It's interesting to see the big ridge from  Alaska/Northeast Pacific attempting to plunge the AO down though - that's a Nino-like PNA configuration, possibly benefiting from seasonal zonal wind weakening in terms of how far poleward it's able to reach.

Plenty to monitor and wonder/worry about.

Edited by Singularity
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2 minutes ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

These NH profiles are really stonky

Interesting to see how this develops 

Quick answer=winter to come in spring.

 

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Cmon buddy i admire your positivity but nothings going to come of this lol!!!its over lets just face it!!enjoy next 6 to 7 months of warmth!!fingers crossed!!

Thats fairenuff pal.

But im sticking with it...as i have for several weeks now!!

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Even deep Into FI, and the little mild wedge is trying to stick its finger up to us!! Much more interesting going into March I feel! Throw in the towel? Not ruddy likely. 👍

gfs-1-384.png

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42 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Really!!??.

As per my previous post, retro-is looking more solid by the hour/or per run 2 run slots..

And as guided 'now pacific'..conversion to an eye watering pole annom..my bet would be even starker..in the retrogression prog, also the catchment of sub zero polar continental air..is imo still quite miss modeled...in regards to decipher of the hp-cell movement.

Lets see where we go through the rest of today aye!?.

I think to say temporary...is a big big punt...

 

 

gfsnh-0-204.png

9

As already mentioned the good part is that the bottled up cold will be heavily disrupted as a consequence of the wedges of heights moving into the Arctic fields:

D8>>gfsnh-1-192.thumb.png.5820f3d759f23c67ec993d169a32a0e9.png  D16>>gfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.0a0dee4815028f3f8711c72acae6d103.png

Its how we can get that to the UK with the omnipresent mobile wave activity in the Atlantic?

We need a static Rossby wave NH profile to direct a sustained push from the north or east, PM air is not going to work in March!

It has not worked for the UK so far this winter, the cold has constantly been sent the wrong way of marginal, so we do IMO need sustained blocking on the Atlantic side of the NH, not the current synoptic especially with respect to the PV being determined to not weaken per se, and to reform after every attack?

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23 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thats fairenuff pal.

But im sticking with it...as i have for several weeks now!!

  I have to agree with shaky on this point I admire your positivity but so far the drum you been banging had not  baird any fruit let’s wait and see what happens as summer sun already pointed the ECM was an cold out liar. ☺️

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3 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  I have to agree with shaky on this point I admire your positivity but so far the drum you been banging had not  baird any fruit let’s wait and see what happens as summer sun already pointed the ECM was an cold out liar. ☺️

But you never know, I’m hopeful too

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2 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  I have to agree with shaky on this point I admire your positivity but so far the drum you been banging had not  baird any fruit let’s wait and see what happens as summer sun already pointed the ECM was an cold out liar. ☺️

I think the interesting point here Syed is that ECM GFS GFSPand GEM all show this retrogressive pattern so On balance I'd be more inclined to tight isobars enthusiasm.

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