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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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There's a glimmer of hope for coldies in the outer limits of the GEFS 12z with increasing snow potential developing during early march!..well it is still the cold hunt thread isn't it?👍:gathering:

snow_360_ps_slp.png

snow_384_ps_slp.png

850tempuk_384_ps_slp.png

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3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have got a feeling for a cold spell in March but not a potent one, more of a NW flow than anything, could be reasonable for really good altitude in Northern UK but nothing really to float most peoples boats.

March 2006 polar NWly delivered even at this altitude. 

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

March 2006 polar NWly delivered even at this altitude. 

Its just gained traction Aaron as well, i remember a time in Birmingham but i think it was March 2007 not 06, could be wrong though, not talking about the Jan 2004 Birmingham city council gritting fiasco, but i got home but nearly slipped over about 3 times and buses were an hour late. late friday night i think it was after an afternoon shift.

image.thumb.png.923246d35370477655a269a85e21bf17.png

image.thumb.png.3918a6ba48f81be832ada47eb98db826.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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52 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

It's blatantly obvious what's gonna happen here! All of us cold hunters are gonna be taking a late winter break in Greece, and all the good folk of Greece are gonna be taking an early spring break in the UK.

 

Sounds like a plan!

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38 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Wow, that's some cold pool staring us right in the face! One last chase peeps!! Come on I'm up for it! 🤣

gfs-1-324.png

Cold says ‘Sod the UK, I’m going to Greece!’

Edited by Don

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

Cold days ‘sod the UK, I’m going to Greece!

Knowing our luck Don, just as we depart the plane, the beast will set foot in our backyard. Fair play though, Greece sounds nicer. 🤣

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its just gained traction Aaron as well, i remember a time in Birmingham but i think it was March 2007 not 06, could be wrong though, not talking about the Jan 2004 Birmingham city council gritting fiasco, but i got home but nearly slipped over about 3 times and buses were an hour late. late friday night i think it was after an afternoon shift.

 

 

Funny day here, had everything rain/sleet snow, hail, thunder and lightning, warm enough for convection as so late

archives-2007-3-19-12-0.png

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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@london

@Aberdeen...

The notion of a v-late winter early (so called spring)..climb down takes a hop-skip...an, a jump this evening..

Also hp cell starts retract-and align of a somewhat notable slant...

The variable dynamics are starting the fold...

Need a keen eye on a jump for heights syphon further north east..with even a more notable hint of retrogression....'perhaps'...

We -are not done here!!!!!

 

MT8_London_ens (2).png

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Edited by tight isobar

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11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

@london

@Aberdeen...

The notion of a v-late winter early (so called spring)..climb down takes a hop-skip...an, a jump this evening..

Also hp cell starts retract-and align of a somewhat notable slant...

The variable dynamics are starting the fold...

Need a keen eye on a jump for heights syphon further north east..with even a more notable hint of retrogression....'perhaps'...

We -are not done here!!!!!

 

MT8_London_ens (2).png

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

That’s the way I see it too T.I.

The Iceman comes even in spring!!!!

MNR

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UKMO extended remaining settled

ukm2.2019022512_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.304305fb7064c6a8f988b01c77de5a3d.png

London ECM a cold outlier at the end also lower than the mean on the 24th

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Closer agreement in southern Scotland

sco.thumb.png.3850796b6cbed234f307a017ace1f4fe.png

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Looking at the extended Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, the omega block is still going  strong and the daytime mild / very mild theme continues.

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

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It's time for my Chuka Umunna moment and time to throw in the towel on this Winter😁👋

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7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

It's time for my Chuka Umunna moment and time to throw in the towel on this Winter😁👋

What took you so long?..the writing's been on the wall for ages..I can't see anything wintry happening until early March at the very earliest..and even that is for temperatures just to fall back closer to average probably!

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

What took you so long?..the writing's been on the wall for ages..I can't see anything wintry happening until early March at the very earliest..and even that is for temperatures just to fall back closer to average probably!

Agreed Frosty. Damned Gulf stream; it just wont go away😉

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Cold says ‘Sod the UK, I’m going to Greece!’

Off to Faro/Albufeira 5th-10th March... would be annoying if it snowed here then. Thankfully off to Greece (Santorini) early May so should hope no cold pool extending that far south then. Between Portugal and Greece I'll be in Latvia for Easter... 3 weeks later than last Easter when we had snowfall there... not impossible but I am hoping for one more cold shot somewhere!

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No towel chucking from me. Those charts on ECM from 192 onwards in the northern hemisphere view are quite potent, with a few little tweaks, we'd be staring down the barrel of an Omega block. 

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Anyone have word on the developing background signals from early-Dec? 

Edited by PerfectStorm

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My towel has not only been thrown, it's been washed, dried, and put away, looking forward to some nice warm sunny day's, adios winter, hopefully see you later this year

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40 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Agreed Frosty. Damned Gulf stream; it just wont go away😉

Wasn't there a Gulf stream in 1947..1963..1979..1981....1986..1987..1991..etc..etc!:whistling:

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Evening ,the ecm has thrown away it's silly sensational summer output for the weekend. ....

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wasn't there a Gulf stream in 1947..1963..1979..1981....1986..1987..1991..etc..etc!

Sure was.

But in more years than most it keeps our Winters relatively mild. I'm 57 and i can count about 10 exceptional Winters in terms of cold and snow for the UK.

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1 hour ago, Blake Allen said:

Off to Faro/Albufeira 5th-10th March... would be annoying if it snowed here then. 

I very much doubt it will snow here then!  I think your best chance of another cold shot is away from the UK!

Went to Santorini in July 2016.  Nice place and was hot, but the strong breeze took the edge off the high temperatures!

Edited by Don

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How's the EC46 tonight any more Greenland height teases😂🙈

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I like to try and learn something from every Winter whether that be positive or negative. The following points are what I've learnt this season

1) 90s type winters haven't gone away. We've just experienced one with a global warm icing on top.

2) Strat warmings can also fail to produce. This one failed in spectacular fashion. 

3) Long range forecasts, whilst entertaining, still lack any real credibility. In fact they have taken an almost fatal blow this year.

4) I have always felt the weather around Christmas is make or break for the season ahead. Just my own gut and this year consolidates my thoughts.

As for the next few weeks still plenty to look forward to as early March can still deliver. 2nd March last year saw a red warning for snow in Ireland so there is hope!! As farkin used to say 'nuff said'

😆

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