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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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3 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

I recorded a -6c here this winter which is pretty rare for a southern city.

It drops to -18c in my freezer!!..that's where I get my cold fix this winter👍😉

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21 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

And some say winters aren't getting milder

Every season is getting warmer.  Those who can’t acknowledge that obvious fact are in serious denial.

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some interest on the 12 gefs days 14/16 …….. i only comment because its the 12z suite rather than the 06z which has tended to be the more wintry one over the past couple months

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3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Every season is getting warmer.  

It's actually quite alarming that in years to come the cold hunt thread will become a joke..hmmm, it already is!🤣

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

some interest on the 12 gefs days 14/16 …….. i only comment because its the 12z suite rather than the 06z which has tended to be the more wintry one over the past couple months

Well, to be fair the models picked up on this upcoming very mild spell a few weeks ago.  Can they repeat the same success with an upcoming cold spell in March?!

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Just now, Don said:

Well, to be fair the models picked up on this upcoming very mild spell a few weeks ago.  Can they repeat the same success with an upcoming cold spell in March?!

Nope, will be half hearted, average in the south, snow for Scotland, would rather have this

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8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Nope, will be half hearted, average in the south, snow for Scotland, would rather have this

How do you even know there will be, even a half hearted  cold spell in march?...this pattern looks like locking in with a strong omega block.

Edited by Frosty.

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11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Nope, will be half hearted, average in the south, snow for Scotland, would rather have this

Hi 😊 That is 14/15 days away what's the reliability that it will verify. I have been here all winter and what I will walk away remembering this season is that if all the tasty charts showing cold in the 14 or 15 day timeframe  had come off it's a winter I would remember for a long time 😊

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25 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Every season is getting warmer.  Those who can’t acknowledge that obvious fact are in serious denial.

The fact of the matter is that most winters of the last 30 odd years have been milder than what was the long term average before then, and cold spells have been much less frequent and prolonged enough cold spells to lead to cold winters overall have become a very rare commodity in the last 30 years, and after all, most years in the CET record have recorded annual CETs above 10*C during this timespan as well.

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21 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Nope, will be half hearted, average in the south, snow for Scotland, would rather have this

Yes, you’re probably correct.

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29 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's actually quite alarming that in years to come the cold hunt thread will become a joke..hmmm, it already is!🤣

2030 AD:

 

BOOM!!

EXTREME COLD OVER WALES

image.thumb.png.d05cb667f62097a43adca8ac169c4d4f.png

 

 

 

Edited by parrotingfantasist

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8 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Wonder if we will get record low temps later in the spring,the weather is certainly getting more extreme each year.

Many mild spells in february have then be followed by very cold weather later in the spring with snowfall even in April.

Occasionally, but mostly not, at least in the last 30 years.  Feb 1998 was then followed by a cold spell in April that year, and that is the only example I can think of.

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4 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

2030 AD:

 

BOOM!!

EXTREME COLD OVER WALES

image.thumb.png.d05cb667f62097a43adca8ac169c4d4f.png

 

 

 

by then it will be the even modern christmas pudding

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5 hours ago, Stonethecrows said:

Is it tho? People said back in the 90's & 00's that extreme cold was done for the UK but then in the last 10 years we've had record breaking cold events. Just because this year has been a stinker for coldies doesn't automatically mean future winters will be.

I would not say record breaking cold events by any means.  We did have a spell between 2009 and 2013 where winters had more in the way of serious cold spells that led to a few winters in this period being colder than average, but apart from Dec 2010, no other cold event was close to what you would call one of the coldest on record.

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5 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

You and me both, Don. Still think they'll be a "sting in the tail", as we enter March.

I'll order one of these with extra fries, please!!

image.thumb.png.ca29b819bd6cf6229e01b43b26f335e3.png

image.thumb.png.ad88b7e12400856775c580515476e4ca.png

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/1/1/mar1970.pdf

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Unlikely, as this event followed a much colder February than we are going to get this year, and winter 1969-70 was much colder overall than this current one is going to turn out.

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23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

...this pattern looks like locking in with a strong omega block.

Breaking down in time for late spring/summer!

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2 hours ago, Dunstable Snow said:

March 1975 was colder than average and certainly brought more in the way of snowfall than the winter it followed had done, but it was by no means anywhere near as cold as March 2013.

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

12z ICON showing 16c in parts of northern England on Thursday and Friday

12_75_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.98263c96bde4deab62cefd271924617c.png12_99_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.8eaf0bdedb04c73d9ed6ed2d69015345.png

I think we’re in for an early ‘sneeze’ season this year!

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

12z ICON showing 16c in parts of northern England on Thursday and Friday

12_75_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.98263c96bde4deab62cefd271924617c.png12_99_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.8eaf0bdedb04c73d9ed6ed2d69015345.png

Should also add north Wales & possibly the Aberystwyth area? to the 16c on Friday

 

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Should also add north Wales & possibly the Aberystwyth area? to the 16c on Friday

 

A fair few 17's showing on the NetWx model SS.

viewimage.thumb.png.d7588747f7ed97c60cd84cc7310a1f44.png

Reliant on cloud cover, of course. 🙂

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Still have a downward trend into March on the 12z ensembles. A lot of mild to very mild weather before then though.

1475049357_DztVdGZXQAAO79s.pnglarge.thumb.png.a1de8eed4a170eca34b201aa86729204.pnggefsens850Cardiff0.thumb.png.b23fe98ffb5a19f9db1c23904d7eeeb8.png

gefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.2c9836cb73d41b39298a7d0921069d0a.pnggefsens850Belfast0.thumb.png.7245e6f88d4359752ada75a375caca4a.png

 

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It's blatantly obvious what's gonna happen here! All of us cold hunters are gonna be taking a late winter break in Greece, and all the good folk of Greece are gonna be taking an early spring break in the UK. Come to Britain for a holiday, our infrastructure maybe shutting down, but we can at least guarantee you warmth in the heart of winter! What next? Palm trees in Wolverhampton 😳

ECM0-120.gif

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Looking like the 20c is almost certainly not going to happen - the models have pared back a bit the last couple of days. Still 17-18c favoured, which is exceptional.

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Signs of the payback from the  weather gods at the end of the ECM?

It picked up the mild spell from this range,why can’t it pick up a chance to much colder weather,with the high beginning to retrogress and bitterly cold air out to the NE ?

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