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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Spring has sprung for the vast majority of Europe

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.774383c06b8d8b80fdfc639c8a44f12b.pngANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.2ed37a61c32f8fafa6d9ce1d0bbeaaa0.png

 

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13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Spring has sprung for the vast majority of Europe

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.774383c06b8d8b80fdfc639c8a44f12b.pngANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.2ed37a61c32f8fafa6d9ce1d0bbeaaa0.png

 

Live pictures from SS front room

9E80EFE6-3B89-476A-AEE3-F627173E87ED.gif

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24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Spring has sprung for the vast majority of Europe

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.774383c06b8d8b80fdfc639c8a44f12b.pngANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.2ed37a61c32f8fafa6d9ce1d0bbeaaa0.png

 

I think it's great that we are sharing our warmth with most of europe..👍😉🔥

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19 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Live pictures from SS front room

9E80EFE6-3B89-476A-AEE3-F627173E87ED.gif

Complete opposite expressions from my front room!

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3 hours ago, karyo said:

We may get a below average spell of temperatures but record low is extremely hard to achieve these days. 

Also, look at how many above average months we get compared to the below average ones. There is a big difference.

Is it tho? People said back in the 90's & 00's that extreme cold was done for the UK but then in the last 10 years we've had record breaking cold events. Just because this year has been a stinker for coldies doesn't automatically mean future winters will be.

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10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think it's great that we are sharing our warmth with most of europe..👍😉🔥

And yet if Europe was in the freezer the UK would still be showing as warm...….so strange.

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5 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

And yet if Europe was in the freezer the UK would still be showing as warm...….so strange.

Blame the 100 million odd square KM of Atlantic Ocean to our west. However these huge pivoting high pressure cells seem to be becoming more common in recent years. I’m not someone who fully understands the phases the world goes through weather wise but we do seem to be in a phase where it’s more likely to have these monstrous heights, been dominating for months now after dominating for much of summer.

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Are we the unluckiest folk in the NH this winter or what! Just look at them - 20 uppers eying us up out East. Surely.. Could it be... One last hoorahh... Nahhh, I'm past caring!! 

gfs-1-312.png

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2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

You and me both, Don. Still think they'll be a "sting in the tail", as we enter March.

I'll order one of these with extra fries, please!!

image.thumb.png.ca29b819bd6cf6229e01b43b26f335e3.png

image.thumb.png.ad88b7e12400856775c580515476e4ca.png

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/1/1/mar1970.pdf

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Great post and a really interesting read. I wasn't old enough in 1970 to remember it but I remember the Spring of 1975 very well. I was 9 years old and living in Surrey at the time. There were a number of snowy episodes. That was a great spring for a number of reasons !

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17 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

Great post and a really interesting read. I wasn't old enough in 1970 to remember it but I remember the Spring of 1975 very well. I was 9 years old and living in Surrey at the time. There were a number of snowy episodes. That was a great spring for a number of reasons !

The date for March and April 1975

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/e/k/apr1975.pdf

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/e/f/mar1975.pdf

 

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2 hours ago, Stonethecrows said:

Is it tho? People said back in the 90's & 00's that extreme cold was done for the UK but then in the last 10 years we've had record breaking cold events. Just because this year has been a stinker for coldies doesn't automatically mean future winters will be.

Uh, yes? You only need to compare the number of warm/heat records to cold records over the past 20 years to see that breaking record low temperatures is increasingly difficult.

Edited by cheese
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1 minute ago, cheese said:

Uh, yes? You only need to compare the number of warm/heat records to cold records over the past 20 years. 

But we are now moving back to colder phase. It will be interesting in another 20/30 years of satellite data. Once we have been through both warm and cold cycles.

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44 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Are we the unluckiest folk in the NH this winter or what! Just look at them - 20 uppers eying us up out East. Surely.. Could it be... One last hoorahh... Nahhh, I'm past caring!! 

gfs-1-312.png

The day Mattwolves says he’s past caring about a cold spell is indeed a sad day in my book 😮❄️

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24 minutes ago, Due South said:

But we are now moving back to colder phase. It will be interesting in another 20/30 years of satellite data. Once we have been through both warm and cold cycles.

I'm sorry, but on what basis is this colder phase going to occur?

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41 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I'm sorry, but on what basis is this colder phase going to occur?

The Background  Signals👍😁

Edited by Frosty.
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I have got a feeling for a cold spell in March but not a potent one, more of a NW flow than anything, could be reasonable for really good altitude in Northern UK but nothing really to float most peoples boats.

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17 minutes ago, cheese said:

Uh, yes? You only need to compare the number of warm/heat records to cold records over the past 20 years to see that breaking record low temperatures is increasingly difficult.

Simply not true.

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Well well the models show what cold lovers don't want to see which could be exactly to our favour and the complete opposite to them showing what we want to see beyond 7 days 

Don't believe what we are seeing but instead realise that we could be seeing another cold spell brewing towards the end of the month,this week's spring can easily change to next week s back to winter, still too early to write winter off I say

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28 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Simply not true.

Might this help?

state-of-uk-climate-6-hazards-mm-v5-01-1920.jpg

Lowest minimum temperature: Lowest value of the daily minimum temperature for each calendar year, averaged over climatological reference periods.
UK: 1961-1990 average -8.5 °C; 2008-2017 average -6.8 °C.

 

Shown us that the lowest daily minimums on average have been rising, even with very cold spells in perfect synoptic conditions? Might this tie in with our ability to breach record low temperatures?

 

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1 hour ago, Due South said:

But we are now moving back to colder phase. It will be interesting in another 20/30 years of satellite data. Once we have been through both warm and cold cycles.

No we're not...There's no evidence of that, anywhere...

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12 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Might this help?

state-of-uk-climate-6-hazards-mm-v5-01-1920.jpg

Lowest minimum temperature: Lowest value of the daily minimum temperature for each calendar year, averaged over climatological reference periods.
UK: 1961-1990 average -8.5 °C; 2008-2017 average -6.8 °C.

 

Shown us that the lowest daily minimums on average have been rising, even with very cold spells in perfect synoptic conditions? Might this tie in with our ability to breach record low temperatures?

 

A depressing reading!

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15 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Might this help?

state-of-uk-climate-6-hazards-mm-v5-01-1920.jpg

Lowest minimum temperature: Lowest value of the daily minimum temperature for each calendar year, averaged over climatological reference periods.
UK: 1961-1990 average -8.5 °C; 2008-2017 average -6.8 °C.

 

Shown us that the lowest daily minimums on average have been rising, even with very cold spells in perfect synoptic conditions? Might this tie in with our ability to breach record low temperatures?

 

And some say winters aren't getting milder

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I recorded a -6c here this winter which is pretty rare for a southern city.

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