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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Too many off topic posts just recently. Please get back on topic.

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52 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Not cold enough for low land snow in March those uppers would be modified as they

Cross the Irish sea at least -10 uppers required.

C.S

Well -8 uppers are close! 

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GFS 18z more amplified at 198, could we get a split?

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We just can't get an undercut, if we could then lightening would strike twice in two successive springs, just look at the cold pooling on the GFS to the East.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We just can't get an undercut, if we could then lightening would strike twice in two successive springs, just look at the cold pooling on the GFS to the East.

There has never been any appetite to split the flow effectively to our south and drive any low heights into Iberia and France, save the odd weak piece of brief upper troughing  

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Hmm - that’s quite the jump toward a more negative N Atlantic trough tilt in a weeks time from the GFS 18z.

Not much modelling support for it to become enough to bring cold from the northeast but given the current MJO behaviour it’d be foolish to discount the possibility - something to keep a wary (or should that be weary after this winter’s antics!) eye on.

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Amazing warm looking week ahead.  Maybe the recent SSW has downwelled to ground level UK this time lol

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19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There has never been any appetite to split the flow effectively to our south and drive any low heights into Iberia and France, save the odd weak piece of brief upper troughing  

A aspect where the peculiar persistent Nina-like interference has really been making itself known; take that away and either neutral or Nino type MJO responses to an amplified P7-P8 crossing are both strongly tied to heights lowering over Europe via a split jet.

Fascinating times - if only this unusual situation had not proved so frustrating for so many of us.

We could really do with a more straightforward ENSO-linked atmospheric state by next winter so that 2-6 week range guidance (both modelling-derived and technically-based) can stand on firmer ground again.

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Number 4 for me please - frontal snow moving swiftly down the spine of the country.

image.thumb.png.65b22c39c5225a0dc90de135da56fc29.png

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7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

A aspect where the peculiar persistent Nina-like interference has really been making itself known; take that away and either neutral or Nino type MJO responses to an amplified P7-P8 crossing are both strongly tied to heights lowering over Europe via a split jet.

Fascinating times - if only this unusual situation had not proved so frustrating for so many of us.

We could really do with a more straightforward ENSO-linked atmospheric state by next winter so that 2-6 week range guidance (both modelling-derived and technically-based) can stand on firmer ground again.

We could do with some snow by next winter as well!

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Looks familiar, very cold on both flanks! 

15mletk_th.jpg

gfs-1-384.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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Azores properly in charge, dominating, everything goes Southeast or Middleast. Typical late Feb-early March pattern for Greece and Turkey. Since 2002 it's the same thing with 2-3 exceptions. 

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16 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Looks familiar, very cold on both flanks! 

15mletk_th.jpg

gfs-1-384.png

That just shows how difficult it is to get cold over here. Such an awkward position to be in. 

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4 minutes ago, Zesyph said:

That just shows how difficult it is to get cold over here. Such an awkward position to be in. 

It's nature, it's weather, it's chaos. They have the same discussions in Southeast Europe when we get the cold or everytime it goes far west or far east for them. The issue is mainly that we have too much energy in the East Canada/US Coast that doesn't let this doomed Azores high to position itself mid Atlantic. 

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ridiculously mild weather on the way later in the week,the models picked up on this beyond the reliable time frame and of course it’s verified ,if it had been bitterly cold air ,most likely it would not have verified 9 out of ten times 😡

Thats what’s so frustrating about u.k. in the winter,always mild weather will verify cold weather hardly ever.

Looking forward to a cold and wretched spring when the weather gods decide the time is right for payback.from all of this.

Think the record could be challenged for february highest ever temperature,so at least some interest even if it’s for the completely opposite of the thread title 😒

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Might be looking at my first open water swim of the year in March instead of April with the amount of warming taking place now 😳🏊🏽‍♂️

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Models firming up on a few day's ago trends.

HP dominated for the UK till D9-D10, then sinking high.

Post D10; The wedge of heights over the Asia-Pac side means the Atlantic side gets the main drag of the PV circulating to our north.

So, zonal, with PM bursts. Lots of cold air still bottled up in the Arctic due to the failure of the downwelling, plenty of cold uppers available for cold rain in the south and a wintry mix, up north.

No sustainable cold ATM forecast as no HLB'ing.

D16 mean:  gensnh-21-1-360.thumb.png.af502ec9181df9f1de8f128f83610539.png

So the start of March, maybe looking at worst case scenario, changeable, unsettled and cool.

Edited by IDO
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8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Been dry here for a week now and no rain in sight at the moment!!models look like something you would see in july or august!!fanatastic warm weekend coming up for most of the uk!!!may the summer looking charts continue as long as possible cos my craving and excitement for snow has completely diminished now!!!looking forward to another hot summer hopefully!

Winter will probably bite back when it’s the wrong time like March or early April, snowy Easter maybe! March is looking cold from the beginning! If it is warm all spring then I doubt the weather gods will allow us to have a cloudless, rainless and hot summer again! Last year was so exceptional

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UKMO extended remaining settled

ukm2.2019022500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.420195fe21408510ed90b5e13bfa5e7b.png

Once this slightly less mild blip is out the way ECM returns back to where we were at the end of last week

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.7b811f5262126cdbdd60a3ed34ed4226.png

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

ridiculously mild weather on the way later in the week,the models picked up on this beyond the reliable time frame and of course it’s verified ,if it had been bitterly cold air ,most likely it would not have verified 9 out of ten times 😡

Thats what’s so frustrating about u.k. in the winter,always mild weather will verify cold weather hardly ever.

Looking forward to a cold and wretched spring when the weather gods decide the time is right for payback.from all of this.

Think the record could be challenged for february highest ever temperature,so at least some interest even if it’s for the completely opposite of the thread title 😒

Very frustrating isn't it?! I ranted about this a couple of years back when the same thing happened.

It was explained to me that mild in FI will always trump cold verification due to these islands default being a maritime climate,therefore models have an easier job with the 'crystal ball'.

Think this coming 'heatwave' was flagged at 384hrs.

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It looks very December 2015 like. Friday sees warm air surging up from the depths of the Caribbean. In fact the 2nd half of Feb is close in terms of temperature too. Unbelievable stuff!

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16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended remaining settled

ukm2.2019022500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.420195fe21408510ed90b5e13bfa5e7b.png

Once this slightly less mild blip is out the way ECM returns back to where we were at the end of last week

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.7b811f5262126cdbdd60a3ed34ed4226.png

Amazing stuff, not much much of a drop off either really, even towards the end of that chart. It looks like after tomorrow it will be above average to well above right to the end of the month.

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