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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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I didn't think I'd be commenting on a potential heatwave in February, but we find ourselves in changed times, gone the front-loaded winter, which I championed, and gone the back-loaded winter, yes I backed that as well!  D'oh!  ECM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.baab66c3a0357ce10efcebc611cb49f7.jpg

Reds!  Thought they were for summer!  

Some say early warmth suggests a cold wet summer.  I don't see anything like that at all, I'm doubling down on a repeat of last summer, early to make any kind of detailed forecast,  but GloSea5 certainly going for it, Feb update for early summer Z500:

image.thumb.jpg.e1c9011939520057a0711ff3f566dc35.jpg

I think it's going to be a hot one folks!  

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10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Fog written all over it? could be miserable and chilly

ECM1-192.GIF?17-0

If we could get some clear skies, it could be a severe overnight frost, with temperatures recovering to quite high levels in the day though as its nearly the end of February.

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Coldies can rejoice, the Ecm 12z isn't quite as hot as the 00z!!!..:drunk:

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Coldies can rejoice, the Ecm 12z isn't quite as hot as the 00z!!!..

Only 19.3!😂

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Glosea Mike, ain't that the model that forecast a freezing cold blocked winter!! If that's flagging up a hot summer, I am now very worried! 

Yes valid point Matt, I actually think it's got less chance of getting summer totally wrong because there's less going on in the NH, *cough* 2009.  I think there are reasons to be confident of a decent summer, though, and if the long range models are supporting that,then all to the good.  We will see, as I said too early to make any kind of forecast.

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6 hours ago, TEITS said:

I can call it a disaster. no lying snow and only witnessed 5 mins of falling snow. No Ice days and no days when frost has remained all day. For my location that is very unusual. Also I can think of many locations in the same boat as me.

Really sorry to hear that TEITS I know the feeling of frustration for so many years when I lived down south far south it was so marginal there when few miles up the road loads of it  and then none at all for whole south coast for years on end sometimes and even worse when the forecasters said it was coming and it didn't happen . 

Maybe a little hope yet maybe March? 

 

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1 hour ago, Sweatyman said:

No. we havent had anything so it is a disaster

Ah blimey sorry for you wherever you are .  I feel your frustration as had that far too many times myself 

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Being as I like a bit of furtune telling, Ive just read the tea bags, and this is what they came up with! All I can say is.... Start topping up your supplies now! Lord have mercy 🤣🤣

cfs-2-624.png

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Bar a blip over the next couple of days the over theme is a mild one

London

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.c3c5d3dc128fbdf172a64dbcd870f102.png

Southern Scotland

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.6e1cf877430b95b78e1d0e8720d29013.png

High pressure still over the UK at t168 on UKMO, but we might still see a bit of rain in the far west and north-west

ukm2.2019022412_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.617bd757c717e36185110a3ef670c6fb.png

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Colder in North Africa than the UK.  Sub zero 850s in Algeria and Tunisia whilst the UK gets 10+. 

The ECM refuses to move the high much and the limpet hangs on .  The ECM looks like it could go on till T1000hrs and the high would still be there !

Overall barring some brief excitement on the GFS the rest look woeful for even a passing cold shot.

 

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Gfs and Ecm kind of agree by next weekend with a high parked over Europe with a southerly flow, after that gfs and ecm disagree strongly....

never.png

neverx.png

neverxx.png

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Now it’s pretty much guaranteed a very mild spell is inbound, I have a horrible feeling that we are going to pay for it on into March/April. 

Mother Nature always seems to have a way of balancing itself out. 

Now let’s all admit at some stage we have all said ‘the seasons seem to be out of sync’, and I think we will all be saying it again very soon.

Watch this space.

MNR

 

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Hi peeps 😊

Hope you all are ok, I thought I come in here and see if we have got blizzards next weekend but obviously thee has been no dramatic change in the hearts of the models.

felt really balmy today here in Walthamstow today did not need the coat today. Probably won't need a jumper by next weekend by the looks of things. Oh well what can we do us coldies just have to grind our teeth. 

Anyway there's not much more to add from me. Hope you all enjoy the rest of what's left of the weekend speak soon peeps. 

Take care 

regards 😊😊😊😊

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I find it quite astounding the ecm ensemble has a 4 day run of 850 temps at 10c in February. We’d be happy with that in July. It’s a bit mind boggling to be honest.

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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I find it quite astounding the ecm ensemble has a 4 day run of 850 temps at 10c in February. We’d be happy with that in July. It’s a bit mind boggling to be honest.

It’s the thing of weather fairytales so will have to keep watch. Very interesting times for extreme watchers and record breakers. After last weekend a period like March 2012 could be on the cards! ECM has been consistent too.

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16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I find it quite astounding the ecm ensemble has a 4 day run of 850 temps at 10c in February. We’d be happy with that in July. It’s a bit mind boggling to be honest.

I do find it a tad concerning to be honest.

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14 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

It’s the thing of weather fairytales so will have to keep watch. Very interesting times for extreme watchers and record breakers. After last weekend a period like March 2012 could be on the cards! ECM has been consistent too.

I think a colder March is more likely, looking at the gfs long range it’s showing northwesterlies bringing -5 to -8 uppers with possibility of snow for the beginning of March, definitely one to watch and it will probably be payback for what we’re having now because I don’t think Mother Nature will let us off this lightly without another sting of winter! We seem to be stuck in this yellow mild nipple of happiness and joy but both sides of it have cold pools waiting to strike so eventually I think those will eat in and engulf the uk next month!

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12 minutes ago, Don said:

I do find it a tad concerning to be honest.

It’s been 18C in 1960 before and nearly 20C in 1998 so we shouldn’t be too concerned as it has happened before! The uppers don’t correlate to the surface temperature so it is not going to reach 20C I don’t think. Will be sniffing at the record though! 

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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17 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I think a colder March is more likely, looking at the gfs long range it’s showing northwesterlies bringing -5 to -8 uppers with possibility of snow for the beginning of March, definitely one to watch and it will probably be payback for what we’re having now because I don’t think Mother Nature will let us off this lightly without another sting of winter! We seem to be stuck in this yellow mild nipple of happiness and joy but both sides of it have cold pools waiting to strike so eventually I think those will eat in and engulf the uk next month!

Not cold enough for low land snow in March those uppers would be modified as they

Cross the Irish sea at least -10 uppers required.

C.S

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Just now, cheshire snow said:

Not cold enough for low land snow in March those uppers would be modified as they

Cross the Irish sea at least -10 uppers required.

C.S

definitely, still think more chance of snow in March than Dec and Jan off that setup, colder seas

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Can anyone tell me are we going to get cold weather or not

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