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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight

Whilst hunting for cold just now I notice Svalbald -21C, East Greenland -36 C and a 1000-500 mb thickness cold pool of 474 DM just north of Lapland. The intense high forecast to be to our east in a few days time is expected to suck up unusual warmth. If skies remain clear under the high an inversion is likely to  develop with cold possibly foggy nights and potentially warm days. Where any fog forms it could be slow to clear with temperatures close to freezing in these parts. Along the south and east coasts where more of a breeze is likely temperatures are likely to be suppressed by the cool sea but mixing with the warm air aloft due to the breeze may alleviate the effect of the cold sea. It will be very interesting to see how the high behaves with such cold air surrounding it and a island of unusual warmth covering the UK.

 

Edited by 492
Unintended words at bottom of post and spelling mistake
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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
58 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I wouldn't pay the apps too much heed, somewhere will soar well above those sorts of figures. Typically setups like that tend to lead to local maxes of 17-19c (as we saw on Friday) and more general maxes between 13-16c).

You were correct Kold and I thought your observations at the time were correct too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ive been spat at and slapped...and kneeded-in the knackers.....

Keep an eye on the annoms..

@500 geopt ht!..

Watch the divulge in evo..of height alignment with a STIFF-easterly flow..

And yes counterparted with notable isotherms!!!.

Wear ya t'shirts...but keep a wooly hat; n jumper to wack over the top...

@backloaded

@winter strikes bk!!

 

 

He whom laughs last...LAUGHS LOUDEST!!

TA-LAR 4 NOW..

gfsnh-1-384.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_59.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65 (1).png

MT8_London_ens.png

MT8_London_ens (1).png

Anyone who discards winter clothing by mid February is a fool. 

Edited, to remove what might have been considered by some, to be somewhat provocative

Edited by Steve C
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The final weekend of winter looks like going out on a high quite literally

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.59b693055c6e36a62977fe7d30518a17.pngUW144-7.thumb.GIF.7323224c48c8375f12b5e2d8d7a762bd.GIF

Yep. Could be luverly next w/e. Wooly jumpers discarded.....come to think of it i aint even worn one this Winter, nor any gloves!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

12z bringing the colder conditions quicker than the 6z

gfs-1-264.png

gfs-1-264 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Tentative signs the limpet high to the south might start leaving the scene by day ten on the GFS 12 hrs run  .

How much this is to do with the MJO hard to say. The current forecasts re-amplify that a bit and it hangs around phase 8 for a few days .

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The final weekend of winter looks like going out on a high quite literally

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.59b693055c6e36a62977fe7d30518a17.pngUW144-7.thumb.GIF.7323224c48c8375f12b5e2d8d7a762bd.GIF

I can only imagine how happy these charts make you SS, this must be your equivalent to the beast from the east

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I can only imagine how happy these charts make you SS, this must be your equivalent to the beast from the east

I will have revenge when Darlington ends up with a cool showery July and August with 15c.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Ive been spat at and slapped...and kneeded-in the knackers.....

Keep an eye on the annoms..

@500 geopt ht!..

Watch the divulge in evo..of height alignment with a STIFF-easterly flow..

And yes counterparted with notable isotherms!!!.

Wear ya t'shirts...but keep a wooly hat; n jumper to wack over the top...

@backloaded

@winter strikes bk!!

 

 

He whom laughs last...LAUGHS LOUDEST!!

TA-LAR 4 NOW..

gfsnh-1-384.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_59.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65 (1).png

MT8_London_ens.png

MT8_London_ens (1).png

Don’t see how this winter can be backloaded myself when it officially ends in 11 days, all of which are likely to be miles above average.

I think you meant to say cold start to spring. This winter never happened.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
17 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I can only imagine how happy these charts make you SS, this must be your equivalent to the beast from the east

I like 'em too, the worst weather for me is low after low, rain, gales and flooding with no break, SS would disagree though

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Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
6 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Although this winter started with a weak El Nino, it weakened as the winter progressed, and by now I believe is below the El Nino threshold.

Haven't they just declared that el nino has started

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK

Cold as soon as the month turns! -8 uppers or lower moving in later on as well possibly! 

1F1F5AEB-43F6-44C1-A254-EA8453C56071.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
2 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

I hope it's not another snowy St David's Day again like last year, lots of events got cancelled

Probably will happen then! Snow at the wrong time

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
9 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Haven't they just declared that el nino has started

The latest figure I could find for ENSO was an anomaly of +0.38*C, which I believe to get an official El Nino, the anomaly needs to be more than +0.5*C.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
4 hours ago, offerman said:

 Apart from the one very heavy snowfall where it dropped 5CM in some areas 10 in others quite widely across the country and then 28 down here where I live and many other areas had deep snow as well  

 

 So it can't be called a disaster completely and I'll make do with the one really really snowy period which was so nice to see and akin  in-depth terms to the 1980s  

 

 So not a complete disaster let's be grateful for what we had . 

No. we havent had anything so it is a disaster

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

I wouldn't, normally be looking for guidance in the ten to fifteen day range but the current circumstances of a pretty much static pattern for the next ten days are one where a legitimate exception can be made and looking to see where the high migrates when it eventually moves means that  Greenland or Griceland cannot be ruled out according the ens

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Not so sure about the GFSP, the cold NWly seems to get toppled quickly, early days though, still perhaps some colder enough shots to bring a surprise snowfall or two. 

gfs-1-348.png

gfs-1-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I didn't think I'd be commenting on a potential heatwave in February, but we find ourselves in changed times, gone the front-loaded winter, which I championed, and gone the back-loaded winter, yes I backed that as well!  D'oh!  ECM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.baab66c3a0357ce10efcebc611cb49f7.jpg

Reds!  Thought they were for summer!  

Some say early warmth suggests a cold wet summer.  I don't see anything like that at all, I'm doubling down on a repeat of last summer, early to make any kind of detailed forecast,  but GloSea5 certainly going for it, Feb update for early summer Z500:

image.thumb.jpg.e1c9011939520057a0711ff3f566dc35.jpg

I think it's going to be a hot one folks!  

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