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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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1 hour ago, TEITS said:

I can call it a disaster. no lying snow and only witnessed 5 mins of falling snow. No Ice days and no days when frost has remained all day. For my location that is very unusual. Also I can think of many locations in the same boat as me.

Totally naff here. A few moderate snow showers but nothing to write home about. Garbage of a winter around the West Midlands.

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6 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Massive difference in temperatures compared to last year this time round. Anyone got comparisons for one of coldest of last feb at same as this years mild weather. Remember the windchill feel was sub -10 and comapare it to mid teens and possibly warmer in south, that is a massive difference in temperature and feel :0

This time last year we had a maximum of 14.2 degrees recorded at Cardiff. So a mild spell was evident before the beast. Keep in mind a low of - 11.7 was recorded in Hampshire on the 28th.

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Whilst hunting for cold just now I notice Svalbald -21C, East Greenland -36 C and a 1000-500 mb thickness cold pool of 474 DM just north of Lapland. The intense high forecast to be to our east in a few days time is expected to suck up unusual warmth. If skies remain clear under the high an inversion is likely to  develop with cold possibly foggy nights and potentially warm days. Where any fog forms it could be slow to clear with temperatures close to freezing in these parts. Along the south and east coasts where more of a breeze is likely temperatures are likely to be suppressed by the cool sea but mixing with the warm air aloft due to the breeze may alleviate the effect of the cold sea. It will be very interesting to see how the high behaves with such cold air surrounding it and a island of unusual warmth covering the UK.

 

Edited by 492
Unintended words at bottom of post and spelling mistake
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58 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I wouldn't pay the apps too much heed, somewhere will soar well above those sorts of figures. Typically setups like that tend to lead to local maxes of 17-19c (as we saw on Friday) and more general maxes between 13-16c).

You were correct Kold and I thought your observations at the time were correct too. 

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20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ive been spat at and slapped...and kneeded-in the knackers.....

Keep an eye on the annoms..

@500 geopt ht!..

Watch the divulge in evo..of height alignment with a STIFF-easterly flow..

And yes counterparted with notable isotherms!!!.

Wear ya t'shirts...but keep a wooly hat; n jumper to wack over the top...

@backloaded

@winter strikes bk!!

 

 

He whom laughs last...LAUGHS LOUDEST!!

TA-LAR 4 NOW..👋👋

gfsnh-1-384.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_59.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65 (1).png

MT8_London_ens.png

MT8_London_ens (1).png

Anyone who discards winter clothing by mid February is a fool. 

Edited, to remove what might have been considered by some, to be somewhat provocative

Edited by Steve C
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The final weekend of winter looks like going out on a high quite literally

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.59b693055c6e36a62977fe7d30518a17.pngUW144-7.thumb.GIF.7323224c48c8375f12b5e2d8d7a762bd.GIF

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12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The final weekend of winter looks like going out on a high quite literally

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.59b693055c6e36a62977fe7d30518a17.pngUW144-7.thumb.GIF.7323224c48c8375f12b5e2d8d7a762bd.GIF

Yep. Could be luverly next w/e. Wooly jumpers discarded.....come to think of it i aint even worn one this Winter, nor any gloves!

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Tentative signs the limpet high to the south might start leaving the scene by day ten on the GFS 12 hrs run  .

How much this is to do with the MJO hard to say. The current forecasts re-amplify that a bit and it hangs around phase 8 for a few days .

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The final weekend of winter looks like going out on a high quite literally

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.59b693055c6e36a62977fe7d30518a17.pngUW144-7.thumb.GIF.7323224c48c8375f12b5e2d8d7a762bd.GIF

I can only imagine how happy these charts make you SS, this must be your equivalent to the beast from the east 😂

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5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I can only imagine how happy these charts make you SS, this must be your equivalent to the beast from the east 😂

I will have revenge when Darlington ends up with a cool showery July and August with 15c.

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1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Ive been spat at and slapped...and kneeded-in the knackers.....

Keep an eye on the annoms..

@500 geopt ht!..

Watch the divulge in evo..of height alignment with a STIFF-easterly flow..

And yes counterparted with notable isotherms!!!.

Wear ya t'shirts...but keep a wooly hat; n jumper to wack over the top...

@backloaded

@winter strikes bk!!

 

 

He whom laughs last...LAUGHS LOUDEST!!

TA-LAR 4 NOW..👋👋

gfsnh-1-384.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_59.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65 (1).png

MT8_London_ens.png

MT8_London_ens (1).png

Don’t see how this winter can be backloaded myself when it officially ends in 11 days, all of which are likely to be miles above average.

I think you meant to say cold start to spring. This winter never happened.

Edited by mb018538
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Although this winter started with a weak El Nino, it weakened as the winter progressed, and by now I believe is below the El Nino threshold.

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17 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I can only imagine how happy these charts make you SS, this must be your equivalent to the beast from the east 😂

I like 'em too, the worst weather for me is low after low, rain, gales and flooding with no break, SS would disagree though

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6 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Although this winter started with a weak El Nino, it weakened as the winter progressed, and by now I believe is below the El Nino threshold.

Haven't they just declared that el nino has started

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2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Cold as soon as the month turns! -8 uppers or lower moving in later on as well possibly! 

1F1F5AEB-43F6-44C1-A254-EA8453C56071.png

I hope it's not another snowy St David's Day again like last year, lots of events got cancelled 😮

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2 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

I hope it's not another snowy St David's Day again like last year, lots of events got cancelled 😮

Probably will happen then! Snow at the wrong time

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9 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Haven't they just declared that el nino has started

The latest figure I could find for ENSO was an anomaly of +0.38*C, which I believe to get an official El Nino, the anomaly needs to be more than +0.5*C.

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4 hours ago, offerman said:

 Apart from the one very heavy snowfall where it dropped 5CM in some areas 10 in others quite widely across the country and then 28 down here where I live and many other areas had deep snow as well  

 

 So it can't be called a disaster completely and I'll make do with the one really really snowy period which was so nice to see and akin  in-depth terms to the 1980s  

 

 So not a complete disaster let's be grateful for what we had . 

No. we havent had anything so it is a disaster

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50 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep. Could be luverly next w/e. Wooly jumpers discarded.....come to think of it i aint even worn one this Winter, nor any gloves!

iyby obviously.

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I wouldn't, normally be looking for guidance in the ten to fifteen day range but the current circumstances of a pretty much static pattern for the next ten days are one where a legitimate exception can be made and looking to see where the high migrates when it eventually moves means that  Greenland or Griceland cannot be ruled out according the ens

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Not so sure about the GFSP, the cold NWly seems to get toppled quickly, early days though, still perhaps some colder enough shots to bring a surprise snowfall or two. 

gfs-1-348.png

gfs-1-384.png

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