Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Sod the big febuary heatwave, I'm still chasing cold, even if that means I'm alone in doing it! Bring on March, just bring it! 😅

gfs-1-384 (1).png

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Amazing weather here if you like sunshine and having a barbecue !

Although it’s pleasantly warm the dew points are low so not a disaster for the ski resorts . Current temp 20c dew point zero so very dry air . Thankfully a lot of snow fell at my closest resort Cauterets before the early spring .

No sign at all of the limpet high clearing off anytime soon . These types of spells aren’t that unusual for February.

I just hope we don’t end up with a rubbish spring when the interesting synoptics that deliver in winter come too late and we end up with a lot of cold rain .

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Sod the big febuary heatwave, I'm still chasing cold, even if that means I'm alone in doing it! Bring on March, just bring it! 😅

gfs-1-384 (1).png

March is looking quite cold actually so we’ve got some hope!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

This high is beginning to remind me of that limpet that appeared earlier in the winter.

The ECM spreads show its going nowhere fast .  Frustrating to have the last few weeks of winter eaten up like this .

I think it’s safe to assume barring a miracle that any cold weather now will have to appear in March . I’d say this winter has been one of the absolute worst in terms of expectations  falling flat . The PV lobe of death over ne Canada hasn’t relented.

Its remarkable that once again a winter passes by without a proper Arctic blast northerly .

As for the EC 46 and other longer range Met Office products clearly something has gone badly wrong. We’ve seen a lot of spin but put bluntly they have been epic failures !

Morning Nick.

This is without doubt the most disappointing winter I have ever known. I have witnessed snowless winters before, but the reality between what was suggested via background signals compared to possible record breaking warmth is incredible. What also stands out for me this winter is the lack of promising charts in F.I. Any potential has only appeared on a few runs before disappearing.

Sadly I believe we shall pay for this. My initial thoughts are for a disappointingly cool/unsettled spring/summer this year. Only positive is im looking forward to the winters of 2019/20, 2020/21.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah ECM probably a little extreme, though probably plasuable. 06z GFS isn't quite as extreme but would still give a Max somewhere in the 17-18c range, especially with any fohn. Already today upto 14c at Kinloss.

That 1960 spell gave a Max of 18.5c. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, TEITS said:

Morning Nick.

This is without doubt the most disappointing winter I have ever known. I have witnessed snowless winters before, but the reality between what was suggested via background signals compared to possible record breaking warmth is incredible. What also stands out for me this winter is the lack of promising charts in F.I. Any potential has only appeared on a few runs before disappearing.

Sadly I believe we shall pay for this. My initial thoughts are for a disappointingly cool/unsettled spring/summer this year. Only positive is im looking forward to the winters of 2019/20, 2020/21.

Hi Dave yes we were promised a five star meal and ended up with spam fritters ! 

If the background signals were rubbish then our expectations would have been low . 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah ECM probably a little extreme, though probably plasuable. 06z GFS isn't quite as extreme but would still give a Max somewhere in the 17-18c range, especially with any fohn. Already today upto 14c at Kinloss.

That 1960 spell gave a Max of 18.5c. 

March is looking cold at the moment so we have a glimmer of hope for coldies but for now we have to watch this possible record breaking warmth! 

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Amazing weather here if you like sunshine and having a barbecue !

Although it’s pleasantly warm the dew points are low so not a disaster for the ski resorts . Current temp 20c dew point zero so very dry air . Thankfully a lot of snow fell at my closest resort Cauterets before the early spring .

No sign at all of the limpet high clearing off anytime soon . These types of spells aren’t that unusual for February.

I just hope we don’t end up with a rubbish spring when the interesting synoptics that deliver in winter come too late and we end up with a lot of cold rain .

That would be typical and vile at teh same time and I would say not to be ruled out 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

STONKING GEFS ALERT!

image.thumb.png.cae7621daccc8835d399725b8e172ca8.png

So the ENS a few trending downwards 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

STONKING GEFS ALERT!

image.thumb.png.cae7621daccc8835d399725b8e172ca8.png

Lot of straddlers hitting the - 10 mark! I'll take that Feb 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ensembles all agreeing on an early March cool down. Plenty of mild temps before then though.

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.b824fceddcc055a6abf1714cad6cc9bd.pnggefsens850Belfast0.thumb.png.957f4e0b8297352f14d28ce7fdc6c13d.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.e89ec817a7994270d571ce9cef1ce54d.png

Very little rain again over the next 2-weeks for the majority

 

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Ensembles all agreeing on an early March cool down. Plenty of mild temps before then though.

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.b824fceddcc055a6abf1714cad6cc9bd.pnggefsens850Belfast0.thumb.png.957f4e0b8297352f14d28ce7fdc6c13d.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.e89ec817a7994270d571ce9cef1ce54d.png

Very little rain again over the next 2-weeks for the majority

 

Nice to see the tiniest bit of snow row activity appearing at the end! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The upper high being where it is by 216hrs does at least open up the possibility of some form of retrogression down the line. Wouldn't be that surprised to swing into a northerly at some point in early March as the flow is quite amplified.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Hi Dave yes we were promised a five star meal and ended up with spam fritters ! 

If the background signals were rubbish then our expectations would have been low . 

Very true, it's the hope that's killed us! 

It's been rubbish but actually better here than a few recent Winters in that we had lying snow for a few days. However when placed against the expectations given by the long range models and the background signals this seasons model watching has been an exhausting kick in the teeth 😄.

You just know we'll get a cold, wet Spring and Summer to 'make up' for it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tinybill said:

all i  say  fw  is looking  they good    if you want   some cold   is coming if the gfs  is  right  end  of  feb  /march could get interesting like last year!!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=2

gfs-2-372.png

gfs-2-384.png

Fantastic. A glimmer of hope! I’ve been looking at the charts for start of March a lot and I’m seeing a northwesterly blast looking very likely from the 4th! -10 uppers possible for the whole uk with purple colours not to far from Scotland as well!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Fantastic. A glimmer of hope! I’ve been looking at the charts for start of March a lot and I’m seeing a northwesterly blast looking very likely from the 4th! -10 uppers possible for the whole uk with purple colours not to far from Scotland as well!

It's over two weeks away tho!!! I'm looking for the dry mainly mild- very mild weather to continue till late spring hopefully.just a question ,why does the PV show purple even when bits head south.i don't mean in regards to 850s etc.Tia

Edited by swfc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

If you have been looking at ecm there was a malfunction because this is clearly impossible in February so we will need to see with the next run later today to verify these apocalyptic Synoptics! I truly hope these aren’t actually real because gfs is not predicting this monstrosity next Friday 

I doubt it's 'impossible', unlikely of course. But I made my post more than a week ago. But it was still a joke.😊

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kold weather said:

I think anyone who thinks the record wouldn't fall on the 00z ECM is living in a fallacy...the same fallacy that made people think last Friday was going to be 10-11c because that what the models show. In truth we saw a local 17c.

Regardless this spell is likely to be a historic mild/borderline warm spell for Feb and daily records at least are likely to fall.

I'd guess probably 50-50 chance of the all time record going as well. With 4-5 days at similar if not slighlt warmer upper/thickness and a slightly longer day, we are going to see plenty of chances. The only limiting factor maybe how cold can the nights get.

However the thickness/uppers on the ECM would not be out of place in June...

Interesting that the ECM is an outlier Of gigantic proportions so a chart that would deliver isn’t because it’s not going to verify is it?

pretty sure the comment was with regards to temperatures on Saturday not Friday not sure anyone said the temps wouldn’t be reached either. What was the max yesterday?

as predicted the cloud is rolling in across the country and it’s going to stick around for a while especially for northern areas 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TEITS said:

Morning Nick.

This is without doubt the most disappointing winter I have ever known. I have witnessed snowless winters before, but the reality between what was suggested via background signals compared to possible record breaking warmth is incredible. What also stands out for me this winter is the lack of promising charts in F.I. Any potential has only appeared on a few runs before disappearing.

Sadly I believe we shall pay for this. My initial thoughts are for a disappointingly cool/unsettled spring/summer this year. Only positive is im looking forward to the winters of 2019/20, 2020/21.

 Apart from the one very heavy snowfall where it dropped 5CM in some areas 10 in others quite widely across the country and then 28 down here where I live and many other areas had deep snow as well  

 

 So it can't be called a disaster completely and I'll make do with the one really really snowy period which was so nice to see and akin  in-depth terms to the 1980s  

 

 So not a complete disaster let's be grateful for what we had . 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, swfc said:

It's over two weeks away tho!!! I'm looking for the dry mainly mild- very mild weather to continue till late spring hopefully.just a question ,why does the PV show purple even when bits head south.i don't mean in regards to 850s etc.Tia

It shows as purple as the charts you are viewing are the 500mb pressure charts. The darker colours indicate colder, denser air - which is why you won’t see them in the northern hemisphere summer as the pole warms up. A strong PV will have a lot of cold dense air, and if a lobe happens to break away, it takes this cold dense air with it - hence the dark colours following suit.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...