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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Fantastic charts all around this morning if its warmth and sun you are after!!ecm is a scorcher for february and could be looking at temps of 20 degreees by the end of the week!!february records smashed out the window!

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Early end to our winter this time around!

This time last year!  :cold:

Winter disaster 2018.png

Edited by snowblizzard

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Fantastic charts all around this morning if its warmth and sun you are after!!ecm is a scorcher for february and could be looking at temps of 20 degreees by the end of the week!!february records smashed out the window!

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is a cracker too..records could be broken during the next 10 days +....late spring-like warmth at the end of a lame winter!!🔥

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UKMO extended shows high pressure continuing to dominate

ukm2.2019022400.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

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Well after a 7 day sabbatical from model viewing I can see another 7 is required.

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19 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Well after a 7 day sabbatical from model viewing I can see another 7 is required.

I would leave it another 14 days..or maybe 21 to be on the safe side..and even then I'm not sure!👍😉

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Not sure about you but personally I’m not seeing any particularly record breaking temps at all. Just very green colours indicating 10-11C nothing exceptional at all. This is from the gfs 6z today showing 25th of feb. ECM showing a bit more in the way of milder weather with temperatures nudging into the low teens so it’s not looking like a record breaker and there are no southerlies they are more south westerlies to westerlies now before turning to easterlies as the high moves north into the North Sea and then to the west of the uk

5106546D-B50D-43DD-919B-F1C23CC64B47.jpeg

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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11 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

A thing I've noticed if this very warm period should be so, is the fact that it's not unusual to have very warm or cold parts of the year be followed by the complete opposite a year later.

Take March 2012 for example which was very sunny and warm only to be followed a year later by the very cold and snowy March of 2013.

December's 2010 and 2011 were opposites too.

Looks as though at least late February's 2018 and 2019 could be another big contrast.

December 2010 and 2011 being opposites?  To some way yes, but not to the extremity of Decembers 2010 and 2015.  December 2015 was in all ways the "warm" extreme of December 2010.  December 2010 was where weather variables played havoc with the UK's weather and resulted in one of, if not the most extreme early winter season cold spells on record, then weather variables then to the opposite extreme played havoc with the UKs weather in the same month five years later and resulted in the warmest December on record by a large margin of over 1.5*C.

 

Another large contrast was that the coldest February on record in 1947 followed on from one of the warmest Februarys on record two years earlier.

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11 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Not sure about you but personally I’m not seeing any particularly record breaking temps at all. Just very green colours indicating 10-11C nothing exceptional at all. This is from the gfs 6z today showing 25th of feb. ECM showing a bit more in the way of milder weather with temperatures nudging into the low teens so it’s not looking like a record breaker and there are no southerlies they are more south westerlies to westerlies now before turning to easterlies as the high moves north into the North Sea and then to the west of the uk

5106546D-B50D-43DD-919B-F1C23CC64B47.jpeg

Your keen with the GFS 6Z again to say it’s only out to +80?

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3 minutes ago, zjc said:

Your keen with the GFS 6Z again to say it’s only out to +80?

Eh? No this is out to +204. I also mentioned that the ecm is showing nothing record breaking, the uppers are pretty impressive but the surface temperatures are lower in the same time frame. Monday 25th was forecast to be the peak of the warmth but it is looking less mild for that day now

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

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41 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is a cracker too..records could be broken during the next 10 days +....late spring-like warmth at the end of a lame winter!!🔥

I was thinking that if it came to pass probably get watered down a little closer to the time but certainly spring has arrived early this year.

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2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Eh? No this is out to +204. I also mentioned that the ecm is showing nothing record breaking, the uppers are pretty impressive but the surface temperatures are lower in the same time frame. Monday 25th was forecast to be the peak of the warmth but it is looking less mild for that day now

Who’s website are you using to view GFS 6? Netweathers is now +99

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1 minute ago, The PIT said:

I was thinking that if it came to pass probably get watered down a little closer to the time but certainly spring has arrived early this year.

Yeah, but the uppers don’t actually reflect the surface temperatures strangely at the moment, ecm is showing uppers of +14-15C but down on the ground they are only 9-10C now that is a bit odd and I don’t see that very often in February 

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3 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Eh? No this is out to +204. I also mentioned that the ecm is showing nothing record breaking, the uppers are pretty impressive but the surface temperatures are lower in the same time frame. Monday 25th was forecast to be the peak of the warmth but it is looking less mild for that day now

No its not out to 204, unless you provide a chart.

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Just now, zjc said:

Who’s website are you using to view GFS 6? Netweathers is now +99

I look at wxcharts, windy.com, weather outlook and some others. I look at many different ones to see if they have a correlation and they do show the same as each other with the models so I know they are reliable 

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1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Yeah, but the uppers don’t actually reflect the surface temperatures strangely at the moment, ecm is showing uppers of +14-15C but down on the ground they are only 9-10C now that is a bit odd and I don’t see that very often in February 

So that's why the very idea of 15C was pooh - poohed so much then?

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No its not out to 204, unless you provide a chart.

It's a WX Chart, and they're only out to t120 at present

https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=gfs,gfs,gfs,gfs&region=europe&chart=2mtemp,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=06&step=000&plottype=10&lat=54.535&lon=-1.553&skewtstep=0

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1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Yeah, but the uppers don’t actually reflect the surface temperatures strangely at the moment, ecm is showing uppers of +14-15C but down on the ground they are only 9-10C now that is a bit odd and I don’t see that very often in February 

It is unusual at this time of year but subsiding air warms adiabatically and thus a large inversion near the boundary layer with the characteristics of the air underneath somewhat depending on the position of the high

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Mild and dry sums up the last 2 weeks of winter ☹️

 

 

495F8B6F-6214-4C6E-B7DE-5D75FE1E36C2.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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8 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Eh? No this is out to +204. I also mentioned that the ecm is showing nothing record breaking, the uppers are pretty impressive but the surface temperatures are lower in the same time frame. Monday 25th was forecast to be the peak of the warmth but it is looking less mild for that day now

06z on WX Charts is not out to t204 white box is the current run grey box is the old run

Last check 06z was at t132

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Yes - i wasn't questioning what he was saying about this week, its just that there was no way the GFS was out to 204 on any website at the time when he posted it, windy.com doesn't even have a run time on it for instance.

 

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On 11/02/2019 at 07:59, That ECM said:

I guess most have given up, not me.👍

34C200A8-5666-4E8F-A7BD-604DCE32F07A.png

BA97308E-C704-438E-A485-1DAB067CD7CF.png

I have now😩😩 see you all in November 👍👍

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1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Take a look at this then, Monday 25th feb 12:00 gfs 6z:

9CF8C052-4B13-4489-A126-96259390D6D6.jpeg

Yep

Run Sun 17 Feb 00z

You're looking at old data...

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2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Take a look at this then, Monday 25th feb 12:00 gfs 6z:

 

9CF8C052-4B13-4489-A126-96259390D6D6.jpeg

Think you need to go to specsavers mate, that is the 00z

 

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