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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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46 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I can't decide whether I disagree with a post unless I read it... similarly I don't think you can say a mild spell isn't happening unless you look at the weather models themselves...

At least he's being consistant with his contradictory posts lol

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A thing I've noticed if this very warm period should be so, is the fact that it's not unusual to have very warm or cold parts of the year be followed by the complete opposite a year later.

Take March 2012 for example which was very sunny and warm only to be followed a year later by the very cold and snowy March of 2013.

December's 2010 and 2011 were opposites too.

Looks as though at least late February's 2018 and 2019 could be another big contrast.

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The 18s going for a much colder end of month, early March, let's just see shall we

gfs-1-312.png

gfs-1-324.png

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3 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Steve, are you confident in any kind of meaningful cold snap or snow opportunities in the next few weeks? 

Our next window is really day 11-12 

Getting towards last chance saloon though-

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Our next window is really day 11-12 

Getting towards last chance saloon though-

Liking the 18s so far Steve, but Yeh I get what you mean, cheers 

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47 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Brace yaselfs, its coming!!!!! The Spanish plume that is! 

gfs-1-192.png

What next? Tracking a thundery low drifting toward the South coast before March starts? 

What a difference  a year makes, thermals to t-shirts in12 months.

Thames snow streamers to Kent thunderstorm 'clippers' 🤣

 

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5 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

What next? Tracking a thundery low drifting toward the South coast before March starts? 

What a difference  a year makes, thermals to t-shirts in12 months.

Thames snow streamers to Kent thunderstorm 'clippers' 🤣

 

That's probably possible, I can see several major weather types hitting us in the next several weeks 😉

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wish we did have the climate of siberia.

Well you wouldn't get much snow with it either. Very very dry especially in winter. - 40 - 50 common. Sounds lovely not. Aomori City Japan receives 26ft of snow per annum and not that cold. 

Edited by StormyWeather28
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Not a bad ending from the 18z para, much better than the 12s. Let the momentum continue 👍

gfs-1-384.png

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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not a bad ending from the 18z para, much better than the 12s. Let the momentum continue 👍

gfs-1-384.png

The anticyclonic northerly type on the 18z OP appeared on a few of the 12z ensemble members so it might be an emerging trend....

It also appears a bit more on the 18z ensembles also. We have had a few scenarios in recent years were a warm high in Spring shifts towards Greenland.... the end of March 2012 being a good example of this.

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31 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

What next? Tracking a thundery low drifting toward the South coast before March starts? 

What a difference  a year makes, thermals to t-shirts in12 months.

Thames snow streamers to Kent thunderstorm 'clippers' 🤣

 

Now that would be exceptional! Very strange it would be to see thunderstorms from warmth in February! As much as I like thunderstorms, it is the wrong time of the year for them! I want snow!

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38 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Now that would be exceptional! Very strange it would be to see thunderstorms from warmth in February! As much as I like thunderstorms, it is the wrong time of the year for them! I want snow!

Thundersnow?😂 let's hope the models latch onto this "Potential" in the next few days

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Winter grinds on in the U.S., whereas over in the U.K.,.....

ECM0-240_rza1.GIF

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5 minutes ago, draztik said:

Winter grinds on in the U.S., whereas over in the U.K.,.....

ECM0-240_rza1.GIF

Uppers of plus 12,only 28 degrees warmer then what was about to hit the uk last year a couple of weeks later, crazy! 

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240 chart looks exactly like Summersun (Gavin) profile picture or a previous one. He will be happy..

Edited by Dave Kightley
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There’s a small patch of 13/14c uppers over the W/sw. Madness.

GFS has a disturbance in the high that isn’t there on the ecm....so perhaps we need to wait before making any bold predictions. I would expect the ecm op is at the top end of outcomes.

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39 minutes ago, draztik said:

Winter grinds on in the U.S., whereas over in the U.K.,.....

ECM0-240_rza1.GIF

Without fog cover, February temperature record busted. 

The uppers for the UK are the same as during parts of the heatwave last year! 

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This cold hunt is going really well isn't it..+14 850's @ day 10 on the Ecm 00z..an upgrade on the 12z which was itself extraordinarily warm for late february!!🔥🔥

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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This high is beginning to remind me of that limpet that appeared earlier in the winter.

The ECM spreads show its going nowhere fast .  Frustrating to have the last few weeks of winter eaten up like this .

I think it’s safe to assume barring a miracle that any cold weather now will have to appear in March . I’d say this winter has been one of the absolute worst in terms of expectations  falling flat . The PV lobe of death over ne Canada hasn’t relented.

Its remarkable that once again a winter passes by without a proper Arctic blast northerly .

As for the EC 46 and other longer range Met Office products clearly something has gone badly wrong. We’ve seen a lot of spin but put bluntly they have been epic failures !

The problem has been the Azores high (the bane of the UK winter!).

image.thumb.png.d3903059ba59bb555b59c781dd004333.png

 

Edited by mulzy
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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/216_mslp850uk.png?cb=289

Mobile limitations so just a link but it confirms the 14*C 850 hPa temps over the far SW at +216 with 15*C grazing the coast.

That really is bonkers - I’m not sure how ECM manages to strengthen in-situ the pool of warm 850s in late Feb; it becomes largely cutoff from the more southern resources. In fact I think the UK has the highest 850s at its latitudes in the entire N Hem?!

GFS keeps introducing a disturbance in the flow to limit the initial draw of upper warmth and like with cold spells this is the more common form of outcome. 

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