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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The 18s going for a much colder end of month, early March, let's just see shall we

gfs-1-312.png

gfs-1-324.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Almost a boooooooommmmmmmm!!!!! 

gfs-1-360.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Our next window is really day 11-12 

Getting towards last chance saloon though-

Liking the 18s so far Steve, but Yeh I get what you mean, cheers 

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
47 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Brace yaselfs, its coming!!!!! The Spanish plume that is! 

gfs-1-192.png

What next? Tracking a thundery low drifting toward the South coast before March starts? 

What a difference  a year makes, thermals to t-shirts in12 months.

Thames snow streamers to Kent thunderstorm 'clippers' 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

What next? Tracking a thundery low drifting toward the South coast before March starts? 

What a difference  a year makes, thermals to t-shirts in12 months.

Thames snow streamers to Kent thunderstorm 'clippers' 

 

That's probably possible, I can see several major weather types hitting us in the next several weeks

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wish we did have the climate of siberia.

Well you wouldn't get much snow with it either. Very very dry especially in winter. - 40 - 50 common. Sounds lovely not. Aomori City Japan receives 26ft of snow per annum and not that cold. 

Edited by StormyWeather28
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Not a bad ending from the 18z para, much better than the 12s. Let the momentum continue

gfs-1-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not a bad ending from the 18z para, much better than the 12s. Let the momentum continue

gfs-1-384.png

The anticyclonic northerly type on the 18z OP appeared on a few of the 12z ensemble members so it might be an emerging trend....

It also appears a bit more on the 18z ensembles also. We have had a few scenarios in recent years were a warm high in Spring shifts towards Greenland.... the end of March 2012 being a good example of this.

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
31 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

What next? Tracking a thundery low drifting toward the South coast before March starts? 

What a difference  a year makes, thermals to t-shirts in12 months.

Thames snow streamers to Kent thunderstorm 'clippers' 

 

Now that would be exceptional! Very strange it would be to see thunderstorms from warmth in February! As much as I like thunderstorms, it is the wrong time of the year for them! I want snow!

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
38 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Now that would be exceptional! Very strange it would be to see thunderstorms from warmth in February! As much as I like thunderstorms, it is the wrong time of the year for them! I want snow!

Thundersnow? let's hope the models latch onto this "Potential" in the next few days

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
5 minutes ago, draztik said:

Winter grinds on in the U.S., whereas over in the U.K.,.....

ECM0-240_rza1.GIF

Uppers of plus 12,only 28 degrees warmer then what was about to hit the uk last year a couple of weeks later, crazy! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

240 chart looks exactly like Summersun (Gavin) profile picture or a previous one. He will be happy..

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

There’s a small patch of 13/14c uppers over the W/sw. Madness.

GFS has a disturbance in the high that isn’t there on the ecm....so perhaps we need to wait before making any bold predictions. I would expect the ecm op is at the top end of outcomes.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
39 minutes ago, draztik said:

Winter grinds on in the U.S., whereas over in the U.K.,.....

ECM0-240_rza1.GIF

Without fog cover, February temperature record busted. 

The uppers for the UK are the same as during parts of the heatwave last year! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

This cold hunt is going really well isn't it..+14 850's @ day 10 on the Ecm 00z..an upgrade on the 12z which was itself extraordinarily warm for late february!!

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This high is beginning to remind me of that limpet that appeared earlier in the winter.

The ECM spreads show its going nowhere fast .  Frustrating to have the last few weeks of winter eaten up like this .

I think it’s safe to assume barring a miracle that any cold weather now will have to appear in March . I’d say this winter has been one of the absolute worst in terms of expectations  falling flat . The PV lobe of death over ne Canada hasn’t relented.

Its remarkable that once again a winter passes by without a proper Arctic blast northerly .

As for the EC 46 and other longer range Met Office products clearly something has gone badly wrong. We’ve seen a lot of spin but put bluntly they have been epic failures !

The problem has been the Azores high (the bane of the UK winter!).

image.thumb.png.d3903059ba59bb555b59c781dd004333.png

 

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/216_mslp850uk.png?cb=289

Mobile limitations so just a link but it confirms the 14*C 850 hPa temps over the far SW at +216 with 15*C grazing the coast.

That really is bonkers - I’m not sure how ECM manages to strengthen in-situ the pool of warm 850s in late Feb; it becomes largely cutoff from the more southern resources. In fact I think the UK has the highest 850s at its latitudes in the entire N Hem?!

GFS keeps introducing a disturbance in the flow to limit the initial draw of upper warmth and like with cold spells this is the more common form of outcome. 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Fantastic charts all around this morning if its warmth and sun you are after!!ecm is a scorcher for february and could be looking at temps of 20 degreees by the end of the week!!february records smashed out the window!

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