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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

As Steve said earlier - rare to get intense thicknesses as shown on the ECM in the middle of winter. If the 12z ecm verified I think we’d be more likely than not to see the first ever winter 20c in the UK. Scary.

Oddly enough, as I walked around Ramsgate in the warm sun today, Scary was the word that also came into my mind. Looking at the ECM tonight I'm tempted to put 'very' in front of that word!!

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15 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Oddly enough, as I walked around Ramsgate in the warm sun today, Scary was the word that also came into my mind. Looking at the ECM tonight I'm tempted to put 'very' in front of that word!!

 It was brilliant today and it's happened countless times in February before. The warmest CET temperature happened a staggering 240 years ago and with the recent warming that's has taken place I find that quite a Suprise. Also in 1998 February was amazingly warm around mid month. 

Edited by seabreeze86
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14 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

 It was brilliant today and it's happened countless times in February before. The warmest CET temperature happened a staggering 240 years ago and with the recent warming that's has taken place I find that quite a Suprise. Also in 1998 February was amazingly warm around mid month. 

Yep, an amazing month. The period between the 9th and 15th we had exceptionally mild conditions with tropical maritime air across us. High pressure centred over Europe and low pressure to the NW of the UK. Temperatures of 17degress were recorded often, and up to 19.7 degrees on the 13th at Greenwich, the highest ever recorded temp for February. On the 15th a plume of saharan dust was noted in many areas. Not out the question that the record could go this month. 

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33 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Oddly enough, as I walked around Ramsgate in the warm sun today, Scary was the word that also came into my mind. Looking at the ECM tonight I'm tempted to put 'very' in front of that word!!

Why is it scary lol? Surely only vampires should be scared of the sun?

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This winter's cold hunt or hunt for cold..or whatever has been largely fruitless and the Ecm delivers the final insult which is fitting really..we had so called amazing background signals which have ultimately delivered diddly squat for many..being a member of sacra i'm gutted with how this winter has unravelled but even this coldie will enjoy the unseasonably warm fine weather which looks like occurring again from later next week.

PS..I haven't given up completely on cold and snow at some point during the first half of spring👍  

 

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I have to have a laugh, Paul and the Netweather team just rely on computer model output ,no human intervention.  Forecasts today are becoming increasingly laughable at long range , ten day period included,  the models of late have a huge amount of Shannon entropy,  it's a bit like believing the phantom easterly as regards cold charts , and now the cards are on the table at the ten day range for record breaking mild for this time of year, why should we give that any credence?  Anyway apart from the finer details which are impossible to nail down as noted above and won't happen..the outlook looks mild settled generally, away from a few flies in the ointment early week..

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Today's ECM 12z belongs in some  kind of fantasy world, here T240, +12 uppers into SW?

image.thumb.jpg.9de807c1d737473cbdbd427cfec53fea.jpg

I'm sure that will feel very pleasant, it just isn't the time of year for it is all!  

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12 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I have to have a laugh, Paul and the Netweather team just rely on computer model output ,no human intervention.  Forecasts today are becoming increasingly laughable at long range , ten day period included,  the models of late have a huge amount of Shannon entropy,  it's a bit like believing the phantom easterly as regards cold charts , and now the cards are on the table at the ten day range for record breaking mild for this time of year, why should we give that any credence?  Anyway apart from the finer details which are impossible to nail down as noted above and won't happen..the outlook looks mild settled generally, away from a few flies in the ointment early week..

The mild spell this week was picked up a long time in advance and given all the models are hinting at mild then why shouldn't we give it credit? The easterly in mid January was still subject to a lot of uncertainty. Outside 2 weeks everyone knows forecasting is in its infancy.

Your last sentence sounds like a complete contradiction to what you previously wrote. The output looks mild generally? get that from the models by any chance?

Given all you seem to post about is models being worthless (and now criticizing the site) why do you post here?

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Well, well, well, what have we got here? A flake of snow i see for the 4th of March! (Long way off still) 

9BEC540A-FBA3-4DB7-AA47-84DDC5ED047D.png

Aye, looks like some sort of cold early March, been looking at last few GFS runs, only for the north though, esp Scotland

looks horrid here, prefer it 17 degrees, sunny and light winds, rather than 3 degrees with rain showers and bitter winds

gfs-0-324.png?12gfs-0-360.png?12

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, looks like some sort of cold early March, been looking at last few GFS runs, only for the north though, esp Scotland

looks horrid here, prefer it 17 degrees, sunny and light winds, rather than 3 degrees with rain showers and bitter winds

gfs-0-324.png?12gfs-0-360.png?12

How can 3c be bitter winds, bitter winds were feb 91, jan 87, feb 18, an Dec 2010, Feb 86.

I have rarely felt bitter from a NW flow.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How can 3c be bitter winds, bitter winds were feb 91, jan 87, feb 18, an Dec 2010, Feb 86.

Well compare that to what we are in for next weekend it will feel like Siberia in comparison! That would be a 15C+ drop in temperatures for some areas!

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2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Well compare that to what we are in for next weekend it will feel like Siberia in comparison! That would be a 15C+ drop in temperatures for some areas!

I wish we did have the climate of siberia.

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11 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Blue as soon as March begins! Please, I beg you, let this actually become something...

2383740B-8272-4D45-9397-A350CB0B9DD3.png

Well you never know! However, looking at the ECM ensembles tonight for the 1st March, the odds are about 90/10 in favour of a mild set-up still being in place by this time. That's pretty overwhelming odds and rarely fails to verify, especially considering this has been the play for days now.

The question remaining is - just how mild? In all seriousness, this thread might as well change its name from "cold hunt" to "mild hunt" now, as there's nothing really to look at in the models except whether records can be broken. With raw data on the ECM tonight seeing 16C exceeded on 3 out of 4 days around next weekend, and bearing in mind it was in the mid-range 3C too low on maximums for the last few days, I think the all-time February record maybe, just maybe, is fair game.

Is it completely off-topic to mention the migrating geese I saw flying north over the south coast this morning? Do they know??

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19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have rarely felt bitter from a NW flow.

Bitterly disappointed more like..great in here tonight, loving the friendly atmosphere. 👍😉

Edited by Frosty.
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21 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The mild spell this week was picked up a long time in advance and given all the models are hinting at mild then why shouldn't we give it credit? The easterly in mid January was still subject to a lot of uncertainty. Outside 2 weeks everyone knows forecasting is in its infancy.

Your last sentence sounds like a complete contradiction to what you previously wrote. The output looks mild generally? get that from the models by any chance?

Given all you seem to post about is models being worthless (and now criticizing the site) why do you post here?

It's quite simple really, if you don't agree with or don't like the look of my post ...don't read it

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1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

It's quite simple really, if you don't agree with or don't like the look of my post ...don't read it

I can't decide whether I disagree with a post unless I read it... similarly I don't think you can say a mild spell isn't happening unless you look at the weather models themselves...

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image.thumb.png.47357f2d9e0897c941c8e21d6187f5f9.pngimage.thumb.png.0c35a5ddfe75147a5c93787631d27843.pngimage.thumb.png.8d97db0482014730c0a275cec5e0c0e8.png

Pretty good confidence in the position of that high, winds between the south and west throughout but with the high close enough to keep most of the Atlantic fronts at bay and probably allowing for some reasonable amounts of sunshine. It looks generally very mild or even dare I say it warm during the afternoons, worth noting that like the last few days that there will still be chilly nights with some decent diurnal ranges on offer.

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20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wish we did have the climate of siberia.

The country grinds to a halt with a cm of snow, not quite sure a siberian climate would suit this infrastructure! 

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38 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wish we did have the climate of siberia.

Really I don't,  the mild spell is good news for all who pay utilities etc and for the economy as well in general,  The mild spell will bite us on the bottom though..

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21 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The country grinds to a halt with a cm of snow, not quite sure a siberian climate would suit this infrastructure! 

less than a cm, a sugar coating brings the uk to a standstill!!..anyway, no sign of snow in the next few weeks, looks very mild at times.

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2 hours ago, O'Maille80 said:

The search for cold is over for me now. Looking forward to the weather picking up and getting a decent spring after last year's non spring. 

What do you mean non Spring. Fair enough it was very cold in parts of March but from about mid April onwards and especially May was very good. Who knows what this Spring will be like but even if this late Winter period is more like Spring than Winter, I wouldn't be too confident of it remaining the theme for the whole season as last year showed Spring can be a season of very big contrasts.

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4 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

What do you mean non Spring. Fair enough it was very cold in parts of March but from about mid April onwards and especially May was very good. Who knows what this Spring will be like but even if this late Winter period is more like Spring than Winter, I wouldn't be too confident of it remaining the theme for the whole season as last year showed Spring can be a season of very big contrasts.

I think it's down to the fact that spring was about a week long then it was essentially summer!

I wonder if we'll start to see weather like this into March? Hints in FI of a more Atlantic regime taking hold towards month's end, and our favourite AH likes sticking its oar in.

archives-2008-3-10-0-0.png archives-2007-3-5-0-0.png archives-2006-3-9-12-0.png

Edited by MP-R

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Brace yaselfs, its coming!!!!! The Spanish plume that is! 

gfs-1-192.png

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