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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

The latest ICON is more amplified at 120 compared to it's 12z 123

iconnh-0-120.thumb.png.a32db15881162a60aaac7eabfd25c8a7.pngiconnh-0-123.thumb.png.fc55fd77a5bd720bc155ba4f79be1635.png

the trough into Scandi is more aligned south than SE, these little steps can have big effects later on,watch for further cutbacks SW on later runs.

iconeu-0-120.thumb.png.62c213b5815ef0f57bb8d6a442d0d784.pngiconeu-0-123.thumb.png.6a73df907ed818c63a571f9a07f109ff.png

whilst we see temps pumping up(of which i will enjoy,don't get me wrong)in the next week of so,this should give the trop pv a kick in the goolashes and with the Alaskan ridge showing it's hand too i wouldn't discount a trop split sometime in March,watch this space.

Edit:well the 18z gfs doesn't read the script at 120,who is right!

the icon or the gfs?

Agreed Si. Loving the dry, bright skies and relative warmth now, but don't mistake this for spring. The way the PV is behaving could take us for fools.

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Morning all ,looked at gfs and ecm and I don't accept what they are showing what they are showing from 7 days out with the heights moving towards Scandinavia and a mild easterly following with colder air over Germany down to the balkans, never known that before ,in my opinion that will change in the coming days to much colder air creeping our way if the high becomes a block over to our northeast 

Gfs oz is hinting at height link up with Greenland at day 10 which is encouraging if future runs back this up ,if not early spring will continue with the block sticking to our East or southeast 

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The GFS/GEFS are beginning to get to grips with the Pacific pattern around D10. As expected the static wave is now being downplayed as the destructive base troughing interferes with the energy. So instead of a meridional flow upstream we are now seeing a wedge of heights pushed into higher latitude on the Pacific side. Again, this is a repeating pattern and will mean a flatter upstream with the cores of the PV migrating to the Atlantic side of the NH.

I would suspect that would translate for the mid-latitude block near the UK to slip further south after D10, so maybe more PM air for some.

If that is the case we are in for a more zonal period as the lower heights flow to the north of the UK. The GEFS is still working on that flow and where the core of the PV will travel. Again we have been here before this Winter.

So mild for the next 10 days (blip Mon-Tues) then the temps closer to average. Mainly dry for the south. No sign of a sustained cold and with the Pacific wave modulated, the Rossby wave flow is tempered and less likely for Atlantic height rises per se. Good model agreement viz GFS and ECM still.

London>>>graphe3_1000_309_147___.thumb.gif.f9ba6425595c3ff4607b40067652a1ba.gif

D10 GFS and ECM>>2068638744_gfsnh-0-240(2).thumb.png.7937b6ffd21023b90ff15ad16f7f689a.png2054699145_ECH1-240(2).thumb.gif.c159f5367e130c80882c505392cad484.gif

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Permuation 4 on the GEFS is the sort of payback from the weather gods, I'm expecting  eventually! ❄️😅

So basically enjoy the very mild golfing type weather, before we all freeze over 😲

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7 hours ago, kumquat said:

Our SW/Central event will be forgotten.... like tears in rain.....:oldlaugh:

I’ll never forget that event! Heaviest snow for 9 years here, was amazing! Without it I’d have put this winter down as crap, but snow falls like that don’t come around very often so I’m really pleased with winter 18-19 based solely on this event. ❄️

 

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8 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Is anyone still bothering with ec46 after it's dismal performance during the winter, if you are, why exactly? 

Weeks 3 and 4 - why not?  

Now noaa is working again, I may do a verification on anoms for jan and first half feb on the focussed thread. I wouldn’t think weeks 3 and 4 will be too bad 

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You would almost think we have had a 2nd SSW, Vortex split all over the place.

gfsnh-0-348.png

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40 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

You would almost think we have had a 2nd SSW, Vortex split all over the place.

gfsnh-0-348.png

That’s not too surprising....that chart is for March, zonal winds ease rapidly through spring, and tend to reverse to easterly in early April as the PV dissipates. Hence why the snow more likely at Easter than Xmas often rings true.

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The hunt for cold as died, just as the models show a little positive for cold, come on peeps, this is a boooooooommmmmmmm considering what we have now 😂

gfs-1-336.png

gfs-1-384.png

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This is so frustrating and hurting my head! Two high pressures now apparently going to build next week. One over Scandinavia/Northern Europe and one over southern France! If that one to our south builds then it cuts of the easterlies and leaves us in a void of boredom! We can’t win! The one time we get a Scandi high we get an Azores high at the same time, too many highs!

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The gfs 06z is VILE. Why is it when crap shows on the models 9/10 it bloody verifies.

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The 6z has a blob of 12c 850s moving up next Sunday under the strong high pressure....tmax charts only showing 15c which will be conservative at best. One to keep an eye on. Beyond that then perhaps a chance of something colder as we head into March.

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1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

The gfs 06z is VILE. Why is it when crap shows on the models 9/10 it bloody verifies.

'cos mild is more common than cold, SW'lys are our main direction

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Anyone know what the white lines through precipitation means? It’s been so long I’ve forgotten 🤔

C67DFBF3-04F0-4391-A98F-7BA54296F9B7.png

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10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The hunt for cold as died, just as the models show a little positive for cold, come on peeps, this is a boooooooommmmmmmm considering what we have now 😂

gfs-1-336.png

gfs-1-384.png

Hi goodmorning 😊

Just looked at what you posted and it lifted my eyes. Where are these charts from? Also could you kindly advise what timeframe we are looking at. I must admit these kind of charts do show some glimmer of hope especially when all this week we have sat here with doom and gloom hanging over us.

i must say that if these charts are coming into the reliable timeframe then yes I am prepared to still have hope. Unfortunately this winter has shown charts like this but they have never verefied as they were out of the reliable time. It's like the Bermuda Triangle tasty charts 10 days away have all disappeared mysteriously, 

With the current pattern I think we are going to require something dramatic to happen to shift. I am not saying cold is still not possible it can snow in March and April but we would need some good low uppers to make it worthwhile. There may be a hint of s pattern change who knows, but at the moment all I keep seeing is quite the opposite of cold in the coming days. This high pressure that has come over our shores is the mother of all and forget about needing a bigger boat - we are going to need a mighty shift to move this thing. 

I am still prepared to sit back and watch how the next 2 weeks pan out and whether temperatures in Europe take a dramatic dive. Alas time is really running out fast something has to give in quickly. 

Kind egards 😊😊😊😊

 

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8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The 6z has a blob of 12c 850s moving up next Sunday under the strong high pressure....tmax charts only showing 15c which will be conservative at best. One to keep an eye on. Beyond that then perhaps a chance of something colder as we head into March.

It would sum up this winter if we end it by recording the first ever 20c In February.

Too be honest it is nice enough that the high builds close enough to us to enjoy clear skies rather than being submerged in a load of moist tropical maritime air. Still it has been a very disappointing winter given a lot of factors were in our favour. But I guess in the end it is always a lottery for the UK. Here’s to an eventful spring which can deliver sunshine and warmth but can still offer frost and snow as well.

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7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Anyone know what the white lines through precipitation means? It’s been so long I’ve forgotten 🤔

C67DFBF3-04F0-4391-A98F-7BA54296F9B7.png

If we would have had the type of precipitation indicated by the white lines, as often as shown over the last 7 years, we would have been looking at an ice age.

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10 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi goodmorning 😊

Just looked at what you posted and it lifted my eyes. Where are these charts from? Also could you kindly advise what timeframe we are looking at. I must admit these kind of charts do show some glimmer of hope especially when all this week we have sat here with doom and gloom hanging over us.

 

Hi. If you click on the charts you will see which model it is and what date they are referring to. In the above case the gfs 6z for 2nd and 4rth March.

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14 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi goodmorning 😊

Just looked at what you posted and it lifted my eyes. Where are these charts from? Also could you kindly advise what timeframe we are looking at. I must admit these kind of charts do show some glimmer of hope especially when all this week we have sat here with doom and gloom hanging over us.

i must say that if these charts are coming into the reliable timeframe then yes I am prepared to still have hope. Unfortunately this winter has shown charts like this but they have never verefied as they were out of the reliable time. It's like the Bermuda Triangle tasty charts 10 days away have all disappeared mysteriously, 

With the current pattern I think we are going to require something dramatic to happen to shift. I am not saying cold is still not possible it can snow in March and April but we would need some good low uppers to make it worthwhile. There may be a hint of s pattern change who knows, but at the moment all I keep seeing is quite the opposite of cold in the coming days. This high pressure that has come over our shores is the mother of all and forget about needing a bigger boat - we are going to need a mighty shift to move this thing. 

I am still prepared to sit back and watch how the next 2 weeks pan out and whether temperatures in Europe take a dramatic dive. Alas time is really running out fast something has to give in quickly. 

Kind egards 😊😊😊😊

 

Hi east 17 boy, the above runs were from gfs6z, and I've just had a look at the gfs6z para. They seem to be hinting at a pattern shift towards beginning of March with the air coming from a much colder W/NW Point, and as you would know there is quite a bit of cold pooling in mid Atlantic currently. But they do seem to insicate high pressure losing its grip! I am not seeing a raging Easterly but anything is surely better than this mundane long fetch swly. Small steps I'm looking for and I know this won't float most people's boats especially as we may need to be looking at - 8 plus uppers as we go into March! Personally I feel it will be a much more wintry feeling set up to what we currently have. 👍

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3 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Hi. If you click on the charts you will see which model it is and what date they are referring to. In the above case the gfs 6z for 2nd and 4rth March.

Thanks for that 😊 For me then going out that far in the timeframe is clutching straws. I have learnt that on here and as I mentioned above sadly that has been the story this winter we have seen some candy charts like this but unfortunately they disappear as quickly as they appeared. I would advise stick to the 4 or 5 day period as the margin of error is probably far less then looking ahead more than 10 days out. I would be very happy if these charts did verefy like a lot of us on here would be but then again I might actually pick out a few lottery numbers for tonight.

regards 😊😊😊😊

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6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hi east 17 boy, the above runs were from gfs6z, and I've just had a look at the gfs6z para. They seem to be hinting at a pattern shift towards beginning of March with the air coming from a much colder W/NW Point, and as you would know there is quite a bit of cold pooling in mid Atlantic currently. But they do seem to insicate high pressure losing its grip! I am not seeing a raging Easterly but anything is surely better than this mundane long fetch swly. Small steps I'm looking for and I know this won't float most people's boats especially as we may need to be looking at - 8 plus uppers as we go into March! Personally I feel it will be a much more wintry feeling set up to what we currently have. 👍

😊😊 let's hope there is a change because at the moment I want to kick the backside of Mr high pressure to somewhere where the sun don't shine. 😊

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2 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Thanks for that 😊 For me then going out that far in the timeframe is clutching straws. I have learnt that on here and as I mentioned above sadly that has been the story this winter we have seen some candy charts like this but unfortunately they disappear as quickly as they appeared. I would advise stick to the 4 or 5 day period as the margin of error is probably far less then looking ahead more than 10 days out. I would be very happy if these charts did verefy like a lot of us on here would be but then again I might actually pick out a few lottery numbers for tonight.

regards 😊😊😊😊

Thing is the current early set up is so dire, we need to look +10days out just to see something more interesting. I wish there was a model to show next winter showing serious  cold pooling, trust me I would be getting excited,  cause I'm sad! 😭

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