Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
 Share

Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The day 6-10 charts from the Euro tonight are exceptional.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    5 minutes ago, fazzafarrand said:

    Why?

    They are almost as exceptional or unusual as the pattern and uppers that we had last March, so although not what most of us want it’s interesting to see such remarkable warmth at this time of the year.

    Obviously most of us are here for the cold hunt but in absence of that at the moment it will be interesting to see just how warm it will get, oh and the bonus of a nice low heating bill ? 

    Edited by Weathizard
    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    When the beast hit last year at the end of Feb, I was renovating a house, no heating and a big hole in the building (extension going up) it was so cold my tea actually froze in my cup while working inside!!

    Now as much as I love the snow and frost that was pretty extreme to be working in, and not much fun to be honest.

    Move forward a year and again I’m renovating a house with no heating, though we have doors and windows this time lol. So the current charts are actually really quite welcome!!

    It is a shame many haven’t seen snow this winter (though many have) and the winter as a whole has been disappointing with the absence of a prolonged freeze up, but you have got to love the extremes of the UK weather, from the GREAT BEAST to the GREAT BASK in a year!

    Get those BBQs out ????

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    2 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

    Perfect ?? The ECM is disgusting it’s meant to be winter . Everyone wanting warm/heat in February ? Can’t put the words together to describe it . Horrid charts . ??

    Hmmm, horrid for me would be a raging jet and lows barrelling into the country bringing wind and rain. Plus, we’re only a couple of weeks away from meteorological spring so if it cant be cold and snowy then I would quite like an early onset of Spring. This is far better than 6c and heavy rain. 

    Edited by danm
    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK

    Remember that when this happened in 1998 winter came in April! We could be in for a late cold spell at this rate, just trying to remain optimistic to see at least one more flake of snow!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The latest ICON is more amplified at 120 compared to it's 12z 123

    iconnh-0-120.thumb.png.a32db15881162a60aaac7eabfd25c8a7.pngiconnh-0-123.thumb.png.fc55fd77a5bd720bc155ba4f79be1635.png

    the trough into Scandi is more aligned south than SE, these little steps can have big effects later on,watch for further cutbacks SW on later runs.

    iconeu-0-120.thumb.png.62c213b5815ef0f57bb8d6a442d0d784.pngiconeu-0-123.thumb.png.6a73df907ed818c63a571f9a07f109ff.png

    whilst we see temps pumping up(of which i will enjoy,don't get me wrong)in the next week of so,this should give the trop pv a kick in the goolashes and with the Alaskan ridge showing it's hand too i wouldn't discount a trop split sometime in March,watch this space.

    Edit:well the 18z gfs doesn't read the script at 120,who is right!

    the icon or the gfs?

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    ?

    did anyone post or comment on the ec46 last night,no.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    18 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    ?

    did anyone post or comment on the ec46 last night,no.

    Feb1991blizzard strongly hinted it wasn’t good if you’re after cold!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    20 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    ?

    did anyone post or comment on the ec46 last night,no.

    Yes me  - it was atlantic trough then euro high - rubbish throughout.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The latest ICON is more amplified at 120 compared to it's 12z 123

    iconnh-0-120.thumb.png.a32db15881162a60aaac7eabfd25c8a7.pngiconnh-0-123.thumb.png.fc55fd77a5bd720bc155ba4f79be1635.png

    the trough into Scandi is more aligned south than SE, these little steps can have big effects later on,watch for further cutbacks SW on later runs.

    iconeu-0-120.thumb.png.62c213b5815ef0f57bb8d6a442d0d784.pngiconeu-0-123.thumb.png.6a73df907ed818c63a571f9a07f109ff.png

    whilst we see temps pumping up(of which i will enjoy,don't get me wrong)in the next week of so,this should give the trop pv a kick in the goolashes and with the Alaskan ridge showing it's hand too i wouldn't discount a trop split sometime in March,watch this space.

    Edit:well the 18z gfs doesn't read the script at 120,who is right!

    the icon or the gfs?

    I mean, in any other winter, you'd look at those and say, "wow, there's a real prospect there!". Not this winter sadly, it's been one of so much promise, and too many emotional hang-ups! God help us addicts.

     

     

     

    Edited by phil nw.
    Ot comments removed
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Well it’s perfect golf weather and beautiful it is, and I have a feeling this is going to go on and on....we are in a rut yet again and is an extreme in itself.  But we are far from unprecedented warmth.

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Gfs pointing to a shift in pattern come months end, and beginning of March, with much cooler air filtering in from the west

    gfs-1-384.png

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

    Quite remarkable mild on both GFS/ECM tonight - possibility of several days in a row reaching 14-15c quite widely at the end of next week. 

    Can't help but think we'll pay for it sometime in March or April!

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Liking the end frames of the GFSP, incoming - 8 uppers, at least a little bit of fi eye candy appearing compared to present. ?

    gfs-1-372.png

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    1 hour ago, Don said:

    Feb1991blizzard strongly hinted it wasn’t good if you’re after cold!

    Is anyone still bothering with ec46 after it's dismal performance during the winter, if you are, why exactly? 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    3 hours ago, chris55 said:

    When the beast hit last year at the end of Feb, I was renovating a house, no heating and a big hole in the building (extension going up) it was so cold my tea actually froze in my cup while working inside!!

    Now as much as I love the snow and frost that was pretty extreme to be working in, and not much fun to be honest.

    Move forward a year and again I’m renovating a house with no heating, though we have doors and windows this time lol. So the current charts are actually really quite welcome!!

    It is a shame many haven’t seen snow this winter (though many have) and the winter as a whole has been disappointing with the absence of a prolonged freeze up, but you have got to love the extremes of the UK weather, from the GREAT BEAST to the GREAT BASK in a year!

    Get those BBQs out ????

    Our SW/Central event will be forgotten.... like tears in rain.....:oldlaugh:

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The latest ICON is more amplified at 120 compared to it's 12z 123

    iconnh-0-120.thumb.png.a32db15881162a60aaac7eabfd25c8a7.pngiconnh-0-123.thumb.png.fc55fd77a5bd720bc155ba4f79be1635.png

    the trough into Scandi is more aligned south than SE, these little steps can have big effects later on,watch for further cutbacks SW on later runs.

    iconeu-0-120.thumb.png.62c213b5815ef0f57bb8d6a442d0d784.pngiconeu-0-123.thumb.png.6a73df907ed818c63a571f9a07f109ff.png

    whilst we see temps pumping up(of which i will enjoy,don't get me wrong)in the next week of so,this should give the trop pv a kick in the goolashes and with the Alaskan ridge showing it's hand too i wouldn't discount a trop split sometime in March,watch this space.

    Edit:well the 18z gfs doesn't read the script at 120,who is right!

    the icon or the gfs?

    Agreed Si. Loving the dry, bright skies and relative warmth now, but don't mistake this for spring. The way the PV is behaving could take us for fools.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Morning all ,looked at gfs and ecm and I don't accept what they are showing what they are showing from 7 days out with the heights moving towards Scandinavia and a mild easterly following with colder air over Germany down to the balkans, never known that before ,in my opinion that will change in the coming days to much colder air creeping our way if the high becomes a block over to our northeast 

    Gfs oz is hinting at height link up with Greenland at day 10 which is encouraging if future runs back this up ,if not early spring will continue with the block sticking to our East or southeast 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...