Cold hunt - models and chat

[Don]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is seriously warm at day 8 and 9, you’d think somewhere would be around 20c with that kind of set up and uppers of 10c.

Uppers of 10c in February....what the hell is going on?! 

I think somewhere could well record 20c for the first time in winter next weekend.  Bit worrying really......

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Wow, what ground temperatures would this produce? Surely record breaking for some areas. I see a bit of +12 up in the north of Scotland, that would be above average even in July!

Will February 2019 go down as one of the mildest in history?

PS. I wouldn't mind being on the Bulgarian black sea coast instead

Its 4.93 up to the 14th, so I would say that it is very unlikely that it will get anywhere near the mildest ever, which is 7.9 in 1779 (the all time Feb record is one of if not the oldest monthly warm records).  Judging by the output another notably mild February with a CET over 6*C is looking very likely (like 2011, 2014 and 2017 in recent times).  I would put a CET of over 6*C in the very mild category for February.

[edinburgh_1992]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is seriously warm at day 8 and 9, you’d think somewhere would be around 20c with that kind of set up and uppers of 10c.

Uppers of 10c in February....what the hell is going on?! 

I know this is a hunt for cold, but these charts are still quite exciting as they are definitely unusual for February. 

Still a lot more interesting than our usual flat zonality.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

I know this is a hunt for cold, but these charts are still quite exciting as they are definitely unusual for February. 

Still a lot more interesting than our usual flat zonality.

Aye definitely, won't be warm though if skies are clear, like today, severe frost never really got warm, unlike when its wet and windy with higher dew points/muggier feel

[booferking]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its gone wrong at 192

It depends what your chasing it could of went to plan in fact its perfect.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Still know joy from the ECM out to 240. Not throwing in the towel just yet, things could step up a bit I feel towards end of month. Worth noting febuary last year had a recorded high of nearly 15 degrees on the 19th! 9 days later we had a low of - 11.7 in Hampshire. 

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

It depends what your chasing it could of went to plan in fact its perfect.

Perfect ?? The ECM is disgusting it’s meant to be winter . Everyone wanting warm/heat in February ? Can’t put the words together to describe it . Horrid charts .

[ANYWEATHER]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

I think somewhere could well record 20c for the first time in winter next weekend.  Bit worrying really......

Relying on computer models is like pinpointing what is going to happen on March 29th, Nope that temperature will not happen said with 100 % certainty

[nick sussex]

Not the most exciting ECM run!

I think what little patience coldies have left will be needed to see if the end of the month and early March can deliver a change .

Some exceptional warmth is shown but at least it’s not wet windy and mild ! 

Any change if it does appear realistically will be towards the last few days of the month and that’s dependent on the MJO forcing a change because there’s little else going on that can deliver that.

The MJO is currently in phase 8 , the forecasts take that towards the COD before re-amplifying the signal .

Earlier the models did try to raise excitement levels from their current flatlining with that shortwave ejecting off the main trough between day 5 and 6 .

The shortwave could have been upgraded to the trigger variety but sadly turned into a damp squib because of the lack of upstream trough disruption .

We need rid of those bloated lows to the west and need to see energy disrupting towards Iberia and the western Med.

 

 

[Frosty.]

Just had a peek at the models for the first time today and my question is, how does one hunt for cold when there is no cold to hunt for?...

[Don]

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Relying on computer models is like pinpointing what is going to happen on March 29th, Nope that temperature will not happen said with 100 % certainty

Well, I hope you’re right.  As I’ve said before, those temps are fine in April/May but not February!

[North-Easterly Blast]

It is just all down to bad luck.  The current setup this week is very reminiscent of a spell in the second week of February 2008, when a HP with warm uppers brought a few days daytime temperatures reached 12-14*C widely, and even up to 17*C in isolated spots on occasion.  At this time nights were on the cool side like the last couple of days.  The setup next week is that the HP is not predicted to be orientated favourably to draw in cooler lower level air; instead warm uppers out of North Africa are pulled into the high, and the high cannot build far enough north to draw in a colder easterly flow (not that an easterly would be especially cold as NE Europe is not very cold at the moment).

[mb018538]

40 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye definitely, won't be warm though if skies are clear, like today, severe frost never really got warm, unlike when its wet and windy with higher dew points/muggier feel

???

it was freezing here when I left for work at 7am, by mid afternoon it was 14c. North wales reached 17c today, and the set up shown by ecm looks even warmer for next weekend should it verify!

Bit depressing to be talking about this in the cold thread for some, but there’s no other thread to ramble in!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I can see there are a fair few spring hunters on the thread now with the winters over, and long live the hunt for spring warmth. Perhaps it's gone all wrong for us coldies, to early to be sure yet. Perhaps we are on the verge of a 1975 re run, on the 2nd of June snow fell and actually settled on Lickey hills and other areas of Birmingham. In fact a cricket match between Derbyshire and Lancashire being played at Buxton got called off due to 1 inch of snow settling on the pitch. So bare this in mind fellow heat seekers, it may come back to bite you on the backside. There's my swipe at the winters over brigade.

[Snowjokes92]

Not my type of charts in the middle of febuary, but whatever your preference in february, the output is bonkers i cant get over the synoptics. Way above normal temps and little comparison to any very mild febs in the past which is even more unusual. Wonder what is in store for spring and summer

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye definitely, won't be warm though if skies are clear, like today, severe frost never really got warm, unlike when its wet and windy with higher dew points/muggier feel

Doesn't it need to be around -6C for a frost to be severe...at least when winds are light?

[booferking]

51 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Perfect ?? The ECM is disgusting it’s meant to be winter . Everyone wanting warm/heat in February ? Can’t put the words together to describe it . Horrid charts .

I'm a coldie but winter is done for me sorry but you have to admire the charts they're shown some crazy warmth for feb and if we can't get cold I'll take an early start to golf season with warmth.

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Doesn't it need to be around -6C for a frost to be severe...at least when winds are light?

Not forgetting you can get big differences between the grass min and the air min Pete. Take a look at this morning

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/06.html

 

[Man With Beard]

Quite remarkable mild on both GFS/ECM tonight - possibility of several days in a row reaching 14-15c quite widely at the end of next week. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Doesn't it need to be around -6C for a frost to be severe...at least when winds are light?

Well it was certainly very frosty, white everywhere, 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Well it was certainly very frosty, white everywhere, 

wibble all here.

[feb1991blizzard]

Extended?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

wibble all here.

could be early frost tonight, but does look like turning much milder from the west, lasting all through holiday week

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Well it was certainly very frosty, white everywhere, 

Frosty could melt next week..according to the models..

[Don]

29 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Way above normal temps and little comparison to any very mild febs in the past which is even more unusual. Wonder what is in store for spring and summer

One has to wonder that if those temperatures come off as the models predict next week, we could be reading comments in July/August stating ‘It was warmer than this in February!’.