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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    I've heard it mentioned folk maybe pleasently surprised by the weather we could be experiencing come march, going on what's happening right now!! GEFS perhaps smelling the coffee! 

    gens-0-0-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & cold (love it) any extremes.
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
    1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

    Hoping the sun provides enough drying for lawns; cant believe i'm genuinely thinking of first grass cut of year on 15th Feb?

    I’m a couple of miles down the road to you Bristol boy and was just thinking the exact same thing. Beautiful day after a frosty early morning start going to the gym. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Best GEFS for a while - i will have a 16 please. holy grail of UK winter synoptics.

    image.thumb.png.a13e5b010c10da6596da38afcf8e4587.png

    PTB 16 ECM OP quite similar

    I would imagine pretty much every winter lover would come out of hibernation & make an exception if those charts come true-

    Mar 19 colder that all winter months lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    PTB 16 ECM OP quite similar

    I would imagine pretty much every winter lover would come out of hibernation & make an exception if those charts come true-

    Mar 19 colder that all winter months lol

    That is a very similar setup to Nov 2010 only with much better uppers!

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    That is a very similar setup to Nov 2010 only with much better uppers!

    The fact we are rescued to posting individual gefs members indicates the level of desperation.....  clusters more interesting  btw ......

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    PTB 16 ECM OP quite similar

    I would imagine pretty much every winter lover would come out of hibernation & make an exception if those charts come true-

    Mar 19 colder that all winter months lol

    Can you clarify what you mean by ECM OP being similar? Can’t see any part of the ECM being similar?

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Can you clarify what you mean by ECM OP being similar? Can’t see any part of the ECM being similar?

    Presume he means the 06z ECM op which is behind a paywall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    One of the GEFS runs out to 384 is quintessential straw clutching!!! Love this forum, really do!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    35 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Can you clarify what you mean by ECM OP being similar? Can’t see any part of the ECM being similar?

    16 PTB & OP ECM @168

    7FD87B0F-CE6A-421B-B820-1C7E4BDDE409.thumb.jpeg.64f32667a309eefb09e021c3c6154f93.jpeg70DA583D-0EC4-4D5D-AD31-D7BB91261FBD.thumb.jpeg.9e229efb1d96b11dda02926cd8352698.jpeg

     

    Indicating the overall evolution could be dovetailed together..

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Morning all ,looked at gfs and ecm and I don't accept what they are showing what they are showing from 7 days out with the heights moving towards Scandinavia and a mild easterly following with colder air over Germany down to the balkans, never known that before ,in my opinion that will change in the coming days to much colder air creeping our way if the high becomes a block over to our northeast 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    22 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

    The delusion in the met 30 dayer continues,  as well as on here.

    Mild will persist im afraid.

    Delusion is probably due to people not reading it properly. I Think some people don’t read the words low risk or small chance?

    “Any snow looks most likely to be confined to higher ground in the north, although there remains a small chance of snow to low-levels elsewhere, should a continental easterly airflow develop.”

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    24 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

    The delusion in the met 30 dayer continues,  as well as on here.

    Mild will persist im afraid.

    You need to back up a statement with something 

    mild is the form horse in this country 

    you aren’t adding anything to the thread by just making a bland (sorry Tim) comment 

    why will mild persist? I would like to understand your thought process? 

    As far a people on here being decided is concerned, I don’t see anyone putting forward any reasoning for it to become cold enough for snowfall ..... for the time being of course .....

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    The fact we are rescued to posting individual gefs members indicates the level of desperation.....  clusters more interesting  btw ......

    I'm quite intrigued by that blue because if I was of the cold persuasion they wouldn't get my juices flowing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    1 hour ago, Rocheydub said:

    Presume he means the 06z ECM op which is behind a paywall.

    The 6z and 18z ECM ops only go out to T90.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Look at the XC weather site it looks like the only place that is well out in that area
    image.thumb.png.8f8afa19c88dd38911680dcf5ebd450b.png

    16C in Dublin also reached 12c here today so far spring is in the air.

    Edited by booferking
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Look at the XC weather site it looks like the only place that is well out in that area
    image.thumb.png.8f8afa19c88dd38911680dcf5ebd450b.png

    Yeah the models will give a good general guide though nearly always 1-2c too low in these set-ups for most, but there will always be places that due to fohn winds and their locations are going to go higher than elsewhere. Many 14c out there today so far, and increasing number of 15c. More generally 11-13c seems to be the case at the moment. Somewhere is likely to get a 17c, small chance of an 18c rounded up (so say 17.6c for example).

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Yeah the models will give a good general guide though nearly always 1-2c too low in these set-ups for most, but there will always be places that due to fohn winds and their locations are going to go higher than elsewhere. Many 14c out there today so far, and increasing number of 15c. More generally 11-13c seems to be the case at the moment. Somewhere is likely to get a 17c, small chance of an 18c rounded up (so say 17.6c for example).

    Not far off the all time monthly record had the cloud not scuppered that chance thou

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    Just before the 12z's come out I thought I would update on the latest swingometers. 20th of February looks very mild as has done for quite some time. It seems the GEFS forecast this one well.

    image.thumb.png.d2658ec1ba6a3af069b6b5758924ef87.png

    However come February 25th and the mild southerlies / SW winds may subside. The 06z saw a notable jump in the number of runs that have high pressure over us. Still some warm uppers so pleasant during the day but nights may again be a bit on the chilly side. 

    image.thumb.png.08802a824366f2fa89476c903eddf81e.png

    The global temperature anomalies tell quite a story don't they? Pretty remarkable with warm air from the East of Africa going all the way up to the Svalbard region of the North Atlantic whereas some exceptionally cold air makes its may notably far south in the Atlantic. Looks like the Azores may turn notably cool....

    image.thumb.png.9bbb5e948b3e2efeb43fb2df0d623ae8.png

    So no signs of winter towards the end of February but perhaps subtle signs of a change for March? PS P16 puts the beast from the east to shame.... what a turnaround if that came off ?

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    That's some seriously cold uppers out east devoloping, if only we could tap into this, we would have a BFTE part 2 in the offing. 

    icon-1-168.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Freezing to the right of us, freezing to the left of us, and here we are stuck in the middle with you! Come on cold pool, get a move on, we have been waiting nigh on a year. ?

    icon-1-180.png

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)
    3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Freezing to the right of us, freezing to the left of us, and here we are stuck in the middle with you! Come on cold pool, get a move on, we have been waiting nigh on a year. ?

    icon-1-180.png

    Looking promising for Greece!

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