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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Right, that's it I'm taking up another far more exciting hobby than hunting for cold in the UK!

image.thumb.png.5f2f0c21f233f444f23cc5878f79da98.png

😩🤣

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6 minutes ago, Purga said:

Right, that's it I'm taking up another far more exciting hobby than hunting for cold in the UK!

image.thumb.png.5f2f0c21f233f444f23cc5878f79da98.png

😩🤣

Long range models and forecasts - Do exactly the opposite of what they say on the tin!

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Long range models and forecasts - Do exactly the opposite of what they say on the tin!

Until now! 😜

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Quite a change from the 12z to the 18z at the same time frame. Some much cooler uppers from the W/NW. perhaps a pattern change is due for the new month, the current pilge can't go on forever 

gfs-1-372.png

gfs-1-372 (1).png

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So I have a look at the models with a glimmer of hope only to see it all sinking again. This winter is a joke end of and tbh I don’t think any decent charts will actually make it into the reliable this winter or spring for that matter. Anyway no more moaning from me I’d just rather there was no more teases at all. Roll on summer 

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1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I have to say it, today was like a glorious spring day, and a pleasure to be working outside in it! 

I cant wait now for Spring and the sun getting to work on hopefully delivering some convective setups! And getting out and making the best of some good weather. I hope we have a summer like the last one, although I think we will be hard pushed. 

Some absolutely balmy charts showing. I cannot say I’ve ever seen 20c modelled during February. 

Agree 100 % working outside today  made a really nice change, don't get me wrong I like a good cold spell as much as anyone else, but even I am looking forward to some warm and dry days now.  I think it makes a big difference to your point of view if you depend on settled weather ,to earn your living.. :oldsmile:

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33 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Quite a change from the 12z to the 18z at the same time frame. Some much cooler uppers from the W/NW. perhaps a pattern change is due for the new month, the current pilge can't go on forever 

gfs-1-372.png

gfs-1-372 (1).png

Pilge lmfao love it 

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The 18z is a horror show for coldies. High pressure sticking to the UK like an unwelcome mother in law on a bank holiday weekend.  Going nowhere fast preventing fun from happening in the wrong place 

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Expect huge. payback from this from the weather gods. Ive seen ridiculous mild weather in February before and it ended up with a horrible  cold spring with the CET in March and  April lower than February, just means if we do actually get very cold weather later with snow  it won't last long in the spring months away from high ground 

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Coming into the 10 day bracket now ☺ We all know they usually dissappear but hoping for upgrades this time 😉npsh500.thumb.png.dddcad416592a191c00957ed48585e3a.png

Looking good!

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Looks like a cold plunge into Europe by 22nd of feb and that air starts to nudge closer to the uk! So southeasterly may be good just probably no snow with that unless wind direction changes

7008EBB0-0045-4A29-909A-5DB3EF5E93E7.jpeg

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Another ‘interesting’ ec op as we approach the end of feb/early March period. The op is yet to drift towards the extended eps flatter solution of the past two suites ......

Another notable fly for the ointment is an ex typhoon in week two which looks like it will recurve into the n Pacific if it verifies (mean feature on gefs which is notable)  and must be watched for the affect it has on the existing aleutian ridge. could we finally get a convincing  tpv split ???

just about hanging on in there ..........

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The gfs however maintains high pressure control. Not amplifying enough just enough to irritate and propogate the cold for elsewhere, as per usual.  Signs very late on of cold. We all now by now not to take notice...... 

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Nice to see some impressive WAA up to Iceland. The pattern could change towards cold by next weekend if this gains traction.

 

5E3E0A29-D7F0-4448-AD15-804F3DE7FEEA.png

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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31 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Looks like a cold plunge into Europe by 22nd of feb and that air starts to nudge closer to the uk! So southeasterly may be good just probably no snow with that unless wind direction changes

7008EBB0-0045-4A29-909A-5DB3EF5E93E7.jpeg

Pretty cold dewpoints on that chart would make it feel pretty cold -

A clear stand off - ECM V GFS

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P2 looks nice, with the HP hanging around the UK and the ECM toying with it moving North it would be great to get this. I’d say about 1000-1 but there’s a chance 😂

4334716E-6239-4D7A-800B-DC185333439F.png

07DE3CFC-2817-47B7-8F2F-C9EEA7EF09E3.png

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Pretty cold dewpoints on that chart would make it feel pretty cold -

A clear stand off - ECM V GFS

Ironically though, the ensembles are the other way around or were yesterday, EPS less keen on the colder solutions while the GEFS offered some decent PV splits - PS - knew when i saw the 240 chart it would invoke a post from you.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ironically though, the ensembles are the other way around or were yesterday, EPS less keen on the colder solutions while the GEFS offered some decent PV splits - PS - knew when i saw the 240 chart it would invoke a post from you.

The question is guys, which model is going to call this right? 

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ironically though, the ensembles are the other way around or were yesterday, EPS less keen on the colder solutions while the GEFS offered some decent PV splits - PS - knew when i saw the 240 chart it would invoke a post from you.

We know what the ECM op D8-10 charts are like when it comes to modeling HP cells, so a good rule of thumb is to ignore them and refer to the mean as a guide. Inside D8 then the ECM op is the best. Last night's D10 mean:

336449110_EDM1-240(1).thumb.gif.8aeac79cf5ff3dc313bffb728c53436e.gif The 0z this morning: 1598650448_EDM1-240(2).thumb.gif.5990c5bd4f291a6434ec5f52959d81ef.gif

Good consistency from the mean. This is very close to the GFS mean.

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

We know what the ECM op D8-10 charts are like when it comes to modeling HP cells, so a good rule of thumb is to ignore them and refer to the mean as a guide. Inside D8 then the ECM op is the best. Last night's D10 mean:

336449110_EDM1-240(1).thumb.gif.8aeac79cf5ff3dc313bffb728c53436e.gif The 0z this morning: 1598650448_EDM1-240(2).thumb.gif.5990c5bd4f291a6434ec5f52959d81ef.gif

Good consistency from the mean. This is very close to the GFS mean.

TBH its where we go after that, i have said last night that a proper cold spell is unlikely in the 15d time frame and probably beyond as the wave is shortening in the Atlantic and no ejection of any troughing SE for an undercut, can we have done enough damage to the PV by then for the next bout of WAA (possibly up the Western side of Greenland if we are lucky).

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A little less enthusiasm for the flatter solution in the extended eps - expect the clusters to remain broadly as they were yesterday evening though look for the griceland ridge anomoly to perhaps be a little bigger in percentage terms 

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Not sure what that is in Southern Europe 😳 Perhaps its the pattern change we have all been waiting for 🤔

711538E8-4BE3-4220-B890-2960ADD0BC02.png

216hrs on ECM shows a deep cold pool to our east but at 240hrs it’s starting ng to weaken. IF it does get dragged west then there is reinforcements dropping in behind from Russia though.

 

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12C10D94-6068-4F08-B767-63E1307DBEEB.gif

Edited by Tim Bland
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I'm not sure I can ever recall such a convincingly early start to Spring. Yesterday here in Exeter was quite extraordinary: I literally was in shorts and a t-shirt with the windows open. The models continue the theme. However, if you want a straw clutch, the ECMWF does appear to offer the vaguest hint of a more retrogressive Euro high which would introduce south-easterly rather than south-westerly winds:

1402398691_ScreenShot2019-02-15at08_13_35.thumb.png.d5f7ae86539d9d5d2ded469695efb5bd.png

As the ECM has been rather poor in the long range I'm not holding breath.

So enjoy Spring! It won't last, of that we can be fairly sure. But by the time colder spells return we will be into meteorological Spring proper. That doesn't preclude snow events but, hey, you know the score.

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Well for my location, Nottingham, this winter is up there as one of the most snowless I can remember. No lying snow, barely a flake has fallen - even in the run of mild winters of a few years back we had some decent snow at various points ( Boxing Day night in 2014 for example )

The model runs look quite incredible for the next week to 10 days with some exceptionally mild weather forecasted. I don't understand why this is so horrific- if it isn't going to snow then we may as well have balmy weather to enjoy and get out and about.

However, the weather often likes to surprise and even in a relatively snowless location like central Nottingham ( we often seem to miss rain let alone snow) March 2013 and March 2018 ( twice) offered more snow than any winter month I can remember ( apart from November / December 2010)

One area that needs watching is rainfall IMO. It's not been an exceptionally dry winter but I doubt it will be an average winter rainfall wise - another dry and warm summer may cause significant problems. 

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