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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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I’m spotting a little change in the euros tonight... 

Details regarding short waves/wedges etc will only be spotted in the mid range (96-144) we are now entering that timescale moving into next week with the Atlantic trough stalling against the Uk/euro high. Both EC and UKMO put up a wedge of high pressure around Iceland, that wedge is allowing those colder 850s to move around and eventually down into Europe (on this run). It a long shot but i could potentially see this area influencing the pattern overall, for a colder set up evolving than is being shown. 

One to watch IMO

E70845A6-0033-4D9E-A214-02614FFB8770.thumb.jpeg.18d5b9de217fabf415f4f3c11d3ee9ff.jpeg

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14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

imagine this in 5 months

ECM1-240.GIF?14-0

Imagine it a week or so afterwards if that verified!!!

image.thumb.png.87144b614b319d38db3e9cdb2d9e06ca.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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A wintry start to spring anyone?...knew the background signals were on to something!👍😉:cold:

20_336_850tmp.png

20_342_2mtmpmax.png

20_354_2mtmpmax.png

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Imagine it a week or so afterwards if that verified!!!

 

Yes, I noticed that too, and it is supported by the GEM too, maybe more so:

image.thumb.jpg.d9e2887dbfa3eaf5bfb7c129ec820b19.jpg

ECM NH view for comparison

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In the meantime a taste of spring.  Not requesting the towel back just yet though.  Watching,  however.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Happy with the ECM between day 7-10 I feel there’s a lot more to be positive about tonight, the day 10 chart from the ECM is one that could deliver soon after. All things considered I think it’s a plausible evolution and eventually this high will migrate north, it’s just a matter of if it will be in time for one last bite of winter. 

I’m still only at a 6/10 but the to be honest it was more like 2/10 yesterday, positive moves today IMO

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13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Happy with the ECM between day 7-10 I feel there’s a lot more to be positive about tonight, the day 10 chart from the ECM is one that could deliver soon after. All things considered I think it’s a plausible evolution and eventually this high will migrate north, it’s just a matter of if it will be in time for one last bite of winter. 

I’m still only at a 6/10 but the to be honest it was more like 2/10 yesterday, positive moves today IMO

TBH i think we shouldn't be too ambitious with regard to timing, i know it is getting too late for some but the ones left on board the cold chasing ship, we need to be realistic, it was a 3% cluster showing potent cold within 15 days, you would see more than that if it were likely, it could take a few goes even after that, but it is looking like a favourable hemispheric pattern, we might need to wait until nearer to mid March, the problem this winter is we cannot get a wave length to the West of us which is very long at the same time as one to the East so we can get an undercut, its almost like to arms, a right and a left, one is trying for a Greenland high and the other a scandi high, ie, as soon as a long dig of cold gets into Europe, we get the Atlantic wave shortening and then ultimately throwing up a ridge when we need a trough to be ejected SE, we cannot seem to get both behaving favourably at the same time.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A wintry start to spring anyone?...knew the background signals were on to something!👍😉

20_336_850tmp.png

20_342_2mtmpmax.png

20_354_2mtmpmax.png

Glad to see you back on board frosty, the shift could be gathering Momentum. And just to think some are talking of spring! 

33l0cvr_th.jpg

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Even though the ECM operational gives us a glimmer of hope, the EPS continue to say no to cold and trending even worse...

Edited by mulzy
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EPS say not yet for a while im afraid.

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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Even though the ECM operational gives us a glimmer of hope, the EPS continue to say no to cold and tending even worse...

any cheer in the extended?, my post referring upto 240 (and probably beyond though!)

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

any cheer in the extended?, my post referring upto 240 (and probably beyond though!)

240 is as good as it gets.  Euro ridge sinking south seems to be the trend.

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30 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Glad to see you back on board frosty, the shift could be gathering Momentum. And just to think some are talking of spring! 

33l0cvr_th.jpg

The Gefs is a bit better today longer term, snow potential popping up here and there, hopefully yesterday was the nadir and the cold signal will increase towards the end of feb and onwards into march.👍

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gefs is a bit better today longer term, snow potential popping up here and there, hopefully yesterday was the nadir and the cold signal will increase towards the end of feb and onwards into march.👍

More there than here?😢

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

More there than here?😢

It's something to build on, yesterday was much worse..just trying to bring a little hope back for short changed coldies.👍

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3 hours ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Perfect timing. Can always blame the snowy weather that week for the following BREXIT recession

Or blame it for the 100 mile tailback out of Dover. 

The model output is all a bit “nearly, but not quite”. Like the rest of winter, really. It’s all Merkel’s fault, no doubt. 

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Hi gang ,just to let you know that i am on board , im reading the posts , im hoping that we may see the opposite of the present synoptics .And tonights charts have given some joy to the COLD and Snow Hunters ,cheers .

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Glad to see you back on board frosty, the shift could be gathering Momentum. And just to think some are talking of spring! 

33l0cvr_th.jpg

You have been informative in your posts Mr Wolf and they have been well received from me. Your an asset to this forum and particularly the hunting 4 cold thread, especially in times of numerous deserters. Positivity is the key when hunting cold. New to model watching to this degree but people giving up on any cold at this stage is bizarre considering the last few years, it is 😎 if they like a very cold start to the barbecue season 😨

image.jpg.e70545cfdb68dd140abe109116dbc231.thumb.jpg.d817a10c87864a37eb9ec6ae95ac6321.jpg

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 it could take a few goes even after that, but it is looking like a favourable hemispheric pattern, we might need to wait until nearer to mid March

This seems to be typical of this winter though, with cold potential always on the horizon but never getting any closer!

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

This seems to be typical of this winter though, with cold potential always on the horizon but never getting any closer!

This one will. The changes producing the change to colder synoptics, ate not really all that far away. Next week is the key.

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Just now, alexisj9 said:

This one will. The changes producing the change to colder synoptics, ate not really all that far away. Next week is the key.

I'm sure we haven't heard that before....

image.png

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6 minutes ago, icykev said:

You have been informative in your posts Mr Wolf and they have been well received from me. Your an asset to this forum and particularly the hunting 4 cold thread, especially in times of numerous deserters. Positivity is the key when hunting cold. New to model watching to this degree but people giving up on any cold at this stage is bizarre considering the last few years, it is 😎 if they like a very cold start to the barbecue season 😨

image.jpg.e70545cfdb68dd140abe109116dbc231.thumb.jpg.d817a10c87864a37eb9ec6ae95ac6321.jpg

Thank you kind sir. Like you say hunting for cold can be hard work but well worth the wait when it comes off. Interesting NHprofile from the gem there, seems to be showing a little split and fallout from the vortex. Would be interesting if this were to come off, and if so how quick a response we could get from it. If it means march can deliver something worthwhile, then bring it on! 👍

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1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Happy with the ECM between day 7-10 I feel there’s a lot more to be positive about tonight, the day 10 chart from the ECM is one that could deliver soon after. All things considered I think it’s a plausible evolution and eventually this high will migrate north, it’s just a matter of if it will be in time for one last bite of winter. 

I’m still only at a 6/10 but the to be honest it was more like 2/10 yesterday, positive moves today IMO

  I would like to be a bit positive after tonights  ECMWF how ever so far this winter the good charts always stayed at day 10 or beyond this is the reason I am still not going to buy into the ECMWF evolution  maybe I am a bit down after all the letdown so far this winter. 😔😞😁

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10 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

This one will. The changes producing the change to colder synoptics, ate not really all that far away. Next week is the key.

 

19 minutes ago, legritter said:

Hi gang ,just to let you know that i am on board , im reading the posts , im hoping that we may see the opposite of the present synoptics .And tonights charts have given some joy to the COLD and Snow Hunters ,cheers .

Problem is though the latest EPS have just buggered it up.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

 

Problem is though the latest EPS have just bugared it up.

That’s just typical, too!  However, could they end up moving towards the operational?

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14 hours ago, bluearmy said:

as I’ve been saying for days, it’s a v slow journey which is why I can’t muster any enthusiasm for it. the ext ens have been solid for days on an amplified hemispheric upper pattern. We have been placed under the nw euro ridge. the op just about gets its hands on the period by day 10.  So it finally gets a tad more interesting as we see what the higher res ops do with these features. They won’t just stay in place with no twiddling about the edges as the eps mean has been showing. 

So the next few days renew some interest as we see what the fi gem, gfs and ec ops do with this set up. There will be some more ‘attractive’ runs popping up. 

The current momentum on the eps is for the ridge to sink and for the Atlantic to run over the top late week 2 

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