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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)
    8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    gfs-0-216.png?12gfs-2-216.png?12
    GFS is showing the risks of the atlantic getting to close, warm but very very wet

    It looks brief though and besides the gardens will need some rain will all that warmth. lol

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    4 minutes ago, karyo said:

    It looks brief though and besides the gardens will need some rain will all that warmth. lol

    Indeed get the BBQ's outgfs-9-240.png?12

    Then the sledges (if it follows on)
    gfs-0-288.png?12

    gfs-1-300.png?12

    It heads east never mind (GAME OVER) ?

    Edited by frosty ground
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    An example of a stonking pattern and an absolute blizzard even for the South is possible yet - even if the MO 30 dayer is correct, it doesn't even go out this far yet.

    image.thumb.png.4635427cf2e76e0b4eb3af7797ce93b8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Those of ya in North Scotland, frame this and cherish it, the - 8 uppers is about to be breached, as brief as it may be 

    gfs-1-300.png

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
    20 hours ago, mother nature rocks said:

    So just some quick questions:

    1- Was it not the case that the crocus’s/ daffodils/ cherry blossom were out early/ mid feb last year as it was quite mild??

    2-Then what happened at the end of that month/ March?? 

    3- When on the models did last February’s/ March BFTE start to appear??

    4- Surely we can’t second guess what the weather will actually do??

    Im not saying anything is going to happen but it’s happened before so why not again just with a different date!!

    Regards

    MNR

    Quite right! That is exactly what I’ve been saying to my mates when they ask about the weather and “oh my god it’s gonna be a heatwave” so glad someone has picked up on this too! There is always going to be high pressure around so if it just moves north into Scandinavia then we should be set! 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Afternoon all ?

    Worth repeating - periods of warmth in February are far from unknown. This one "might" break some records but we'll have to see if the SSE'ly flow delivers next week.

    This is however the Hunt for Cold thread - NOT the Hunt for Cold in Winter thread - and while it's probably correct to say there's little prospect of anything cold before the end of February (and therefore the end of winter as many reckon it) it's certainly NOT the end of the road for cold conditions.

    I've experienced 21C in March as recently as 2017 and yet last year it was very different. That's March - often a month of contrasts and in four of the last ten years I've seen lying snow in lowland East London.

    So, snow can lay in March in London and further north and higher up through April as well so the Hunt very much goes on.

    The current pattern with the deep mid-Atlantic trough is far from helpful and none of the models are offering anything for cold fans as we go into the first days of March but there's a lot of time for things to change.

    That doesn't mean the next change will favour cold - it's more likely we'll see a return to a more mobile pattern - but that's the thing, there's always another change down the road.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
    11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    GFS 12z suggests 20C would probably happen. Exceptional warmth for the time of year on the GFS for sure, though once again, that has to be on the extreme end of what is possible temperature wise.

    Where on earth are you getting these record breaking temperatures from? I’m looking through all the weather models and haven’t seen anything close to 20! I’m only seeing maximum 14-15C

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    An example of a stonking pattern and an absolute blizzard even for the South is possible yet - even if the MO 30 dayer is correct, it doesn't even go out this far yet.

    image.thumb.png.4635427cf2e76e0b4eb3af7797ce93b8.png

    Maybe we'll get a blizzard on Brexit day then, not that that's even guaranteed ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Cold on both flanks, but I would say that towards the east looks a bit more pronounced than earlier runs. Wouldn't it be great if we could just see a battleground scenario shape up for the end of the month. 

    gfs-1-384 (4).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
    1 minute ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

    Maybe we'll get a blizzard on Brexit day then, not that that's even guaranteed ?

    Wow imagine that! Would be the greatest day in British history! Blizzard brexit!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

    Where on earth are you getting these record breaking temperatures from? I’m looking through all the weather models and haven’t seen anything close to 20! I’m only seeing maximum 14-15C

    Well it is just the GFS but the 12z has a high resolution max of 19c, which would easily cross the 20c mark locally.

    Of course, as I said I think that is extreme and it could easily get downgraded closer to the time...

    However I remember similar comments when it was suggested that 15-17c was possible for the end of this week back on Sun/Mon and many were saying "well that's not what is being shown"...but got to 15c today...despite models suggesting 10-12c was the highest likely temperature.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 hour ago, karyo said:

    The high pressure doesn't manage to ridge as far north on the 12z ICON so we get a subtropical southwesterly instead of the continental southeasterly. This can have a big effect on the temperatures due to warmer nights.

    definitely, then days will feel warmer too, very cold this morning here, due to clear skies, SW breeze though would be double digits due to cloud

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    8 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

    Wow imagine that! Would be the greatest day in British history! Blizzard brexit!

    Given London flooded on the day of the referendum, it’s almost meant to be lol!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge
    44 minutes ago, igloo said:

    t shirt weaher for the next fortnight wait till next week could even reach 18c i wonder if we will get this weather in june ?????? 

    Could well reach that! Last day before low res kicks in suggests some very mild air. New records? The GFS runs look very plausible and won’t be far off imo.

    The hunt for cold is in March, which is a shame. But my guess is a cool (at times) HP with a few frosts leading to an average Spring kind of setup. 

    6DA9975A-BE0F-4007-9988-90B1BDF51002.png

    Edited by DCee
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    24 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Well it is just the GFS but the 12z has a high resolution max of 19c, which would easily cross the 20c mark locally.

    Of course, as I said I think that is extreme and it could easily get downgraded closer to the time...

    However I remember similar comments when it was suggested that 15-17c was possible for the end of this week back on Sun/Mon and many were saying "well that's not what is being shown"...but got to 15c today...despite models suggesting 10-12c was the highest likely temperature.

    Wouldn't surprise me if somewhere breaches 20C before month end, although I hope not.  Dare I say it, a horrifying end to winter indeed!  These charts would be fine in April/May but not February!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Decent GEFS - huge cold pool building to the East, if it wasn't for the let downs and failures so far, i would be confident wrt March, some nice PV splits on a lot of members, that's a long winded way of basically saying that taking the charts in isolation, there is significant risk of cold and snow in March. If those charts were showing in December next winter for instance, this place would be buzzing.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    The GEM manages a split vortex in a favourable position going forward..??

    image.thumb.png.9f84cf3b9465e33fb8c62bffe611520b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

    The thing about saying 'our winters have changed', is I think the human mind is naturally drawn towards those kind of flip of a switch, crossing the rubicon , black & white decisive changes. problem is, I think the reality is much more complex & messy.

    Edited by Bruegelian
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    imagine this in 5 months

    ECM1-240.GIF?14-0

    I think you'll find the pattern about 1000 miles further east!

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    I’m spotting a little change in the euros tonight... 

    Details regarding short waves/wedges etc will only be spotted in the mid range (96-144) we are now entering that timescale moving into next week with the Atlantic trough stalling against the Uk/euro high. Both EC and UKMO put up a wedge of high pressure around Iceland, that wedge is allowing those colder 850s to move around and eventually down into Europe (on this run). It a long shot but i could potentially see this area influencing the pattern overall, for a colder set up evolving than is being shown. 

    One to watch IMO

    E70845A6-0033-4D9E-A214-02614FFB8770.thumb.jpeg.18d5b9de217fabf415f4f3c11d3ee9ff.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    imagine this in 5 months

    ECM1-240.GIF?14-0

    Imagine it a week or so afterwards if that verified!!!

    image.thumb.png.87144b614b319d38db3e9cdb2d9e06ca.png

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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