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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm blaming the werewolves! 😅

I blame all the cows farting!

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That 06z is maybe the total oopposite of what we want, but as an extreme weather fan, I have to say that the 06z run is interesting to me, we'd be easily challenging all time records, even the lower resolution part of the run has 17-18c maxes, we'd likely see our first ever 20c winter temperature based on the 06z GFS.

Of course odds of it being that extreme are very slim, they require near perfect circumstances, but at the moment the odds are many times higher than normal I'd say.

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1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

What has gone wrong with this winter?  Only a weak El Nino, approaching or at solar minimum, and the only background signal that has not been good for cold this winter is that a westerly QBO began in late 2018.  That said winter 2008-09 was reasonable even though the QBO was westerly that year. 

In the mild winters in the middle of this decade; 2013-14 was close to a solar max with a westerly QBO, 2015-16 was in a westerly QBO with a strong El Nino, 2016-17 had a westerly QBO but solar activity was not as low that year as it has been this winter.

With a weak El Nino and approaching solar minimum one would have thought that the prospects of decent cold spells this winter were good, and yet we are very likely yet again to end up with another milder than average winter punctuated by only a modest colder spell in the second half of January.  Looking at the way winter 2018-19 has panned out with the background signals as they have been, one must ask now if the UK winters have becomes poorer still for cold prospects since 2013, and question if even winter 2017-18 is the modern version of the likes of 2009-10, and even a winter like this, or a spell like Dec 2010, or even the relatively cold 2012-13 winter is no longer possible.

Take a look at the severity of cold across a large part of the US and Canada this winter - in some cases, record breaking. One could equally argue the background signals delivered cold big time for them. It's important not to make generalisations based on the very tiny area of the globe that these island inhabit.

Edited by Lunar Tick
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1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

What has gone wrong with this winter?  Only a weak El Nino, approaching or at solar minimum, and the only background signal that has not been good for cold this winter is that a westerly QBO began in late 2018.  That said winter 2008-09 was reasonable even though the QBO was westerly that year. 

In the mild winters in the middle of this decade; 2013-14 was close to a solar max with a westerly QBO, 2015-16 was in a westerly QBO with a strong El Nino, 2016-17 had a westerly QBO but solar activity was not as low that year as it has been this winter.

With a weak El Nino and approaching solar minimum one would have thought that the prospects of decent cold spells this winter were good, and yet we are very likely yet again to end up with another milder than average winter punctuated by only a modest colder spell in the second half of January.  Looking at the way winter 2018-19 has panned out with the background signals as they have been, one must ask now if the UK winters have becomes poorer still for cold prospects since 2013, and question if even winter 2017-18 is the modern version of the likes of 2009-10, and even a winter like this, or a spell like Dec 2010, or even the relatively cold 2012-13 winter is no longer possible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

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20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Yep that’s the one !!

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2 minutes ago, Lunar Tick said:

Take a look at the severity of cold across a large part of the US and Canada this winter - in some cases, record breaking. One could equally argue the background signals delivered cold big time for them. It's important not to make generalisations based on the very tiny area of the globe that these island inhabit.

It is quite easy for those areas to get severe cold even without the background signals. They have a large landmass and a huge mountain range in the west. It doesn't take much for the jet to plunge south and give the a cold outbreak. By contrast with have an ocean to our west with nothing to block the westerlies/southwesterlies. 

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Not really - that brutal cold spell of a few days aside, the USA by their standards has been largely disappointing too for coldies. Just been one of those winters....immense promise shown for probably 6 weeks from the end of December to mid February....yet nothing really delivering. Shame.

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36 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Thanks Summer

And yet there model that i posted yesterday was still showing above average rainfall. No actual link from the poster so I can only assume it must have been a different forecast.

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37 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

If you look in the thread that S Murr did with his very detailed but sadly a bit a miss winter forecast , there is some chat around November time with people saying Spanish meto going for warmer than average ....

Cheers. Thought i'd read a reference to it back in November. And confirmed by Gavin (SS). 

And i see Karyo has referenced it in his post above.

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49 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If you think it's mild this week look at what NEXT weekend could bring!!

3546f815-1b59-4d89-bda3-a1180624a765.thumb.png.8d36bc5d8e41a3d779e4572596b194ac.png529895ce-91a6-4e9b-b93f-713fc6c7ecf4.thumb.png.f69538a4b7e6df19844594cf04288484.png

xl6mxRR.thumb.png.308ead7072885743f95a5b7c846d91fa.png

Cool SS need it cos today isn't mild, mild to me is wet, windy, double digit or close to minimums, like next week

frost and fog last night, lifted now but feels chilly, unlike a wet day would be

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Cool SS need it cos today isn't mild, mild to me is wet, windy, double digit or close to minimums, like next week

frost and fog last night, lifted now but feels chilly, unlike a wet day would be

Yep misty here now, cold wind. Temps under high pressure ate not always right in advance. It depends on ground conditions, and topography as well. I remember a high dominated winter with fog surpressing temps, we developed our own cold pool, in the south east. Then it snowed late in the season in the south east, while Scotland and the nw was very warm.

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50 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If you think it's mild this week look at what NEXT weekend could bring!!

3546f815-1b59-4d89-bda3-a1180624a765.thumb.png.8d36bc5d8e41a3d779e4572596b194ac.png529895ce-91a6-4e9b-b93f-713fc6c7ecf4.thumb.png.f69538a4b7e6df19844594cf04288484.png

xl6mxRR.thumb.png.308ead7072885743f95a5b7c846d91fa.png

And those predicted  charts are from the same models that can hardly ever get it right beyond 5 days so why so different now al of a sudden ,I don't buy anything beyond 5 days and never will ,there's a lot of very cold air still to the east by the weekend and if the high pressure shifts to the northwest after the weekend we will see some of that cold coming this way so enjoy this spring weather while it lasts

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38 minutes ago, karyo said:

It is quite easy for those areas to get severe cold even without the background signals. They have a large landmass and a huge mountain range in the west. It doesn't take much for the jet to plunge south and give the a cold outbreak. By contrast with have an ocean to our west with nothing to block the westerlies/southwesterlies. 

Yes, but it has been unusually cold, even by US standards.  I quote:

"According to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the following cities recorded coldest ever Dec. 23-Jan. 5 stretch: Bangor, Maine, Worcester, Massachusetts, Buffalo, New York, Flint, Michigan, Green Bay, Wisconsin, Duluth, Minnesota, Rockford, Illinois, Waterloo, Iowa, Lincoln, Nebraska.

According to the SERCC, dozens of other cities from the northern Rockies to Texas to the Great Lakes and East Coast had at least a top-five ever coldest two-week stretch ending Jan. 5."

Edited by Lunar Tick
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1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I am meaning to say that if when we are approaching or at a solar minimum, and only a weak El Nino in place, on top of that an SSW in early January, we still end up with a milder than average winter in 2018-19, punctuated by only a couple of weeks of relatively cold weather.  If you look at winter 2018-19 like this then it would appear that the winter climate of the UK has become in a worse state for cold prospects in the past six years since 2013, and that since then UK winters have notched up into a super warm era as opposed to the warm era which appeared to begin in 1988.  We managed a fairly average winter in 2017-18, with a few cold spells, and then even closer still to a solar minimum and only a weak El Nino we end up with a winter not as cold as last year's close to average winter, so winter 2018-19 clearly shows that something is up and has become worse since 2013.  With a much poorer winter than many expected this year to be, and even what the background signals suggested, it is now starting to look as though a winter like 2017-18 may be the post 2013 baseline for winter cold in the UK.

I think what you are saying is claptrap. But that might be valid at some point in the not so distant future. 

 

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

If you think it's mild this week look at what NEXT weekend could bring!!

3546f815-1b59-4d89-bda3-a1180624a765.thumb.png.8d36bc5d8e41a3d779e4572596b194ac.png529895ce-91a6-4e9b-b93f-713fc6c7ecf4.thumb.png.f69538a4b7e6df19844594cf04288484.png

xl6mxRR.thumb.png.308ead7072885743f95a5b7c846d91fa.png

Brace thyselves? What the heck does that mean? lol

Edited by Optimus Prime
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9 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

I think what you are saying is claptrap. But that might be valid at some point in the not so distant future. 

 

Brace thyselves? What the heck does that mean? lol

Someone didn’t get a Valentine’s Day Card 😳

why is it claptrap? I think it’s a valid point, despite everything being in favour of cold it still didn’t happen, that’s all they are saying? 

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My god the hunt for cold really has become derailed! May I remind you its the 14th Feb, there is still a large cold pool to our east, and still the chance some of this could be sent our way. Its a bit premature to be talking about record breaking heat and the like at this stage, personally I still think we have hope for another shot or 2 yet, whether it be cold or snow opportunities. 

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Just a reminder of what this thread is intended for from the top of the page, Again many post belong in the Winter thread..

"Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

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The models are showing some very mild weather forthcoming.

15C here (in the sun) and it feels lovely in the warm sunshine!

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31 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Firstly its is widely considered true that there is a lag effect from solar Min and this may have implications for our winters over the next few years. Secondly ENSO, SSW, Solar, are only 3 variables amongst many others. We may search for the causes of this disappointing winter but I doubt we will find the answers!

I said recently that when I joined this forum some considered classic cold spells a thing of the past. Look what happened next we had the incredible cold spells of Dec 2009, 2010. Lets not forget the incredible E,ly last year.

I am as disappointed as everyone else with this winter. However lets not have a knee jerk reaction to it!

If we can still be left with a milder than average winter close to solar minimum and with a weak El Nino and an SSW in early January, something is showing that the sort of classic spells that we had in winter 2009-10, Dec 2010 and those in the mid to late 2012-13 winter may no longer be possible, let alone the classic spells in the mid 1980s and 1978-79.  That said the only answer that I believe is loading the dice away from a colder winter this year has been a westerly QBO (although even 2008-09 was wQBO).  I would although have certainly said that the background signals such as solar activity and QBO were less favourable for cold patterns to develop in years like 2013-14, 15-16 and 16-17 compared to this present winter.

Also I believe that the MJO this winter has just not been playing ball and mostly not been favourable for cold synoptics.  

Edited by North-Easterly Blast

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2 hours ago, Lunar Tick said:

Take a look at the severity of cold across a large part of the US and Canada this winter - in some cases, record breaking. One could equally argue the background signals delivered cold big time for them. It's important not to make generalisations based on the very tiny area of the globe that these island inhabit.

Background signals were not good for severe cold across N. America this winter..i think the SSW and the failed El Nino certainly played a role in the flip over here.

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The high pressure doesn't manage to ridge as far north on the 12z ICON so we get a subtropical southwesterly instead of the continental southeasterly. This can have a big effect on the temperatures due to warmer nights.

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With all the wrist slashing going on this afternoon and with talk on here by some of such a major climatological shift that we can write off any cold weather in this country forever now 😜. I'd just like to remind everyone that we had a major cold and snowy spell less than 12 months ago. Forget 10 years ago or 6 years ago, less than a year ago we had one. By my reckoning that means we should never have taken it for granted we'd get another one so soon anyway in this part of the world, whether that be now or 200 years ago even.

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UKMO 144 provides a chilly Easterly flow at 144 with -4c air 

But still dry & nice weather generally- just not record breaking -

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2 hours ago, DCee said:

The models are showing some very mild weather forthcoming.

15C here (in the sun) and it feels lovely in the warm sunshine!

t shirt weaher for the next fortnight wait till next week could even reach 18c i wonder if we will get this weather in june ?????? 

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