Cold hunt - models and chat

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It looks colder in the atlantic than it does in the uk..you couldn't make it up!!..what a waste of cold air and snow over the atlantic ocean!!!!!!!

We don't just need a pattern shift, we need a geographical shift frosty! 

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

What has gone wrong with this winter?  Only a weak El Nino, approaching or at solar minimum, and the only background signal that has not been good for cold this winter is that a westerly QBO began in late 2018.  That said winter 2008-09 was reasonable even though the QBO was westerly that year.  With a weak El Nino and approaching solar minimum one would have thought that the prospects of decent cold spells this winter were good, and yet we are very likely yet again to end up with another milder than average winter punctuated by only a modest colder spell in the second half of January.  Looking at the way winter 2018-19 has panned out with the background signals as they have been, one must ask now if the UK winters have becomes poorer still for cold prospects, and question if even winter 2017-18 is the modern version of the likes of 2009-10, and even a winter like this, or a spell like Dec 2010, or even the relatively cold 2012-13 winter is no longer possible.

I'm not so sure, it's just not been favourable pattern wise, for now as long as we can get a cold block, we can still get cold. We did have a prolonged cold spell not long ago, in January, alright, it didn't produce for everyone, but it did happen. That wasn't even associated, with favourable blocking, but a rather slack, northwest to southeast tracking jet stream. It's just been a very unlucky year.

[syed2878]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I'm looking forward now to the cold hunt..onwards into spring thread!!..can anyone give me an update on the background signals for April / May..are they still looking good?

  hi frosty the back ground signals look excellent from March to May we I reckon we’ll have an SSW with a rapid drop response this March to May will be equivalent to winter of 62 63 only the thing it will be in spring.  this will be re-membered of the spring of 2019  Spring that never was lol.

[Methuselah]

32 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep bring on an early warm Spring, followed by a Med-like Summer

Background signals? Yep they're still there, as always, in the form of the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream

After last night's results, anything could happen! A long, hot summer AND winning the CL would be fine.

[Zesyph]

Being a weather enthusiast in the UK is frustrating. Nothing much happening again this week. But the sun is out which is all I ask for if it's not cold and snowy. Better than cloudy overcast gloom. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

23 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I remember posts just like this before 2008-09 and the criteria for cold was 2005-06. Infact 2005-06 was touted as the baseline. Then came 3 winters in the trot colder than 2005-06. 

What I find remarkable about your post is that you question if  2017-18, the modern version of 2009-10? 2009-10 was just under  a decade about! What is your definition of modern? 

How can you question if a spell like 2010 is possible anymore when before 2010, question were asked if we could even get a sub 3 CET? The 31 day run up to Christmas 2010 were the coldest such run up to Christmas for the CET since at least 1772, that was only 9 years ago. Then we had March 2013 to take into consideration. 

If these happened over 40 years ago and nothing happened since then maybe questions could be asked but not when they happened within the last 10 years.

 

I am meaning to say that if when we are approaching or at a solar minimum, and only a weak El Nino in place, on top of that an SSW in early January, we still end up with a milder than average winter in 2018-19, punctuated by only a couple of weeks of relatively cold weather.  If you look at winter 2018-19 like this then it would appear that the winter climate of the UK has become in a worse state for cold prospects in the past six years since 2013, and that since then UK winters have notched up into a super warm era as opposed to the warm era which appeared to begin in 1988.  We managed a fairly average winter in 2017-18, with a few cold spells, and then even closer still to a solar minimum and only a weak El Nino we end up with a winter not as cold as last year's close to average winter, so winter 2018-19 clearly shows that something is up and has become worse since 2013.  With a much poorer winter than many expected this year to be, and even what the background signals suggested, it is now starting to look as though a winter like 2017-18 may be the post 2013 baseline for winter cold in the UK.

Edited February 14, 2019 by North-Easterly Blast

[IDO]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Interesting to see the latitude on our upper ridge lessen from day 15 down to 13 over the past 48 hours (eps). One would expect the opposite.

does this indicate a possible shuffing of momentum re where the upper ridge will eventually establish? Mean heights around Iceland stay similar 

The D10-15 period remains a bit fluid for me at the moment. We are seeing a shift in the Pacific pattern around then from a Pac Hadley Cell to a mean West Coast US Ridge (poss transient). The current cyclonic flat(ish) upstream will become more meridional and that should shift the pattern for the Atlantic heights westwards.

However, the GEFS are in the early stages of getting some lucidity to this change and details at this range are not transparent.

I would have thought with the forecast Pac troughing, sympathetic ridge and US trough then heights should build around the UK/Atlantic region. The complication is the disruption to the pre-D10 Atlantic trough and the interference to that pattern change, making it more complicated than a normal Rossby wave flow.

GFS v.3 keeps the complications to a minimum and sort of goes with my thoughts:

D8 - D16>>>

[Summer Sun]

The only ens run offering the prospect of snow before months end is Inverness where we hit 22 on Tuesday

All the others show zilch - I know Aberdeen has 1 but that's out of 23, so we can discount that in all honesty. Oops. missed off Newcastle as well.

Edited February 14, 2019 by Summer Sun

[frosty ground]

53 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep bring on an early warm Spring, followed by a Med-like Summer

Background signals? Yep they're still there, as always, in the form of the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream

Did you manage to find the Spanish winter forecast you said was spot on? Because the one I found had higher PPN indicated lower than normal pressure.

It would be very odd for you to abandon this claim after repeating it several time in the last few weeks when presented with information that counters your claim.
 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's like so close, yet so far away, wouldn't suppose we would need massive adjustments to get this cold pool further west! 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The only ens run offering the prospect of snow before months end is Inverness where we hit 22 on Tuesday

All the others show zilch - I know Aberdeen has 1 but that's out of 23, so we can discount that in all honesty

I spotted one for Newcastle on the 18th 

I find it odd that your looking for snow when there is zero sign of below average temperatures. 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The only ens run offering the prospect of snow before months end is Inverness where we hit 22 on Tuesday

All the others show zilch - I know Aberdeen has 1 but that's out of 23, so we can discount that in all honesty

I've thrown in the towel on this joke of a winter..BUT I'm not giving up on at least some cold and snow at some point during March / April!!..in the meantime, I'm going to enjoy this early taste of spring!

[Summer Sun]

If you think it's mild this week look at what NEXT weekend could bring!!

[Bristawl Si]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Did you manage to find the Spanish winter forecast you said was spot on? Because the one I found had higher PPN indicated lower than normal pressure.

It would be very odd for you to abandon this claim after repeating it several time in the last few weeks when presented with information that counters your claim.
 

No i didnt; i cancelled that particular task as i decided it might get in the way of other things. If i remember rightly (from November) someone posted it in one of other threads.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This is like the most direst game of football when everybody leaves with 90 minutes up, everyone has threw in there towel in disgust, but hang on a sec the 4th official has just allocated 6mins of added on time, and the fireworks have began, 3 goals in added on time. My take on the current output, just watch the models pull out some stonkers in the next week or so!

[Badgers01]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

No i didnt; i cancelled that particular task as i decided it might get in the way of other things. If i remember rightly (from November) someone posted it in one of other threads.

If you look in the thread that S Murr did with his very detailed but sadly a bit a miss winter forecast , there is some chat around November time with people saying Spanish meto going for warmer than average ....

[summer blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If you think it's mild this week look at what NEXT weekend could bring!!

I think that somebody needs to ask the real question.. when is it too early to whip out the bbq and head for the beer garden.

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

No i didnt; i cancelled that particular task as i decided it might get in the way of other things. If i remember rightly (from November) someone posted it in one of other threads.

 

[Methuselah]

I'm blaming the werewolves!

[karyo]

There is going to be some serious drought for the continent if this God awful high continues for much longer. It certainly doesn't look like shifting looking at the models. An early start to the forest fires is not out of the question.

Interesting that the Spanish Met Office got this winter forecast right. Anybody knows what models they use?

[Rambo]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm blaming the werewolves!

Na, it's not your fault 

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I think that somebody needs to ask the real question.. when is it too early to whip out the bbq and head for the beer garden.

What does the pressure charts for then look like?

[shaky]

15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If you think it's mild this week look at what NEXT weekend could bring!!

That is unbelievable for february and i am actually looking forward to it!!these charts would be amazing in the summer with mid to high 30s widely!!!one things for sure i am defo having the first bbq of the season this saturday!!might aswell go with the flow and bring the bbq out early along with the early spring that has come along!!

[Gowon]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm blaming the werewolves!

I blame all the cows farting!

[kold weather]

That 06z is maybe the total oopposite of what we want, but as an extreme weather fan, I have to say that the 06z run is interesting to me, we'd be easily challenging all time records, even the lower resolution part of the run has 17-18c maxes, we'd likely see our first ever 20c winter temperature based on the 06z GFS.

Of course odds of it being that extreme are very slim, they require near perfect circumstances, but at the moment the odds are many times higher than normal I'd say.