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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Evening ...cold hunters don't look.....but some fun and games in March...watch this space.....😃

h850t850eu-2.webp

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Let's enjoy the upcoming mild and settled spell.  This winter has been a bust!  Let's drink to another warm summer.  At least summer warmth gets delivered regularly.

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Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z op / mean...basically it's goodnight winter..see you in december..hopefully!😄

216_mslp500.png

216_thickuk.png

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z op / mean...basically it's goodnight winter..see you in december..hopefully!😄

216_mslp500.png

216_thickuk.png

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Barbecue Friday, yay! 😎

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Well, good riddance, I love winter, but it's been hugely disappointing, looking forward to some nice warm day's.

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7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Let's enjoy the upcoming mild and settled spell.  This winter has been a bust!  Let's drink to another warm summer.  At least summer warmth gets delivered regularly.

No - lets have a cold showery wet summer please - no oppressive heat.

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - lets have a cold showery wet summer please - no oppressive heat.

Yes can’t be dealing with the stupid heat again!!

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - lets have a cold showery wet summer please - no oppressive heat.

I'd like the hot summer but interspersed with thunderstorms every few days to keep the plants healthy.

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27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - lets have a cold showery wet summer please - no oppressive heat.

So..we've skipped the decomposing remains of this winter..which is understandable, but we've also skipped spring and jumped straight into summer..I wouldn't rule out some wintry surprises in March / April..as long as the Background Signals are still looking good!!👍😉

Edited by Frosty.
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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

So..we've skipped the decomposing remains of this winter..which is understandable, but we've also skipped spring and jumped straight into summer..I wouldn't rule out some wintry surprises in March / April👍😉

I would take a Northern Greenland climate all year around, temps never getting into double figures, anyway, yes, if these next 2 weeks verify as we think, i struggle to see how a cold spell can be avoided, trouble is, will it be in March or April, how early determines whether or not we can still get a dumping out of it.

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28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - lets have a cold showery wet summer please - no oppressive heat.

You nuts?  Most of us love warmth.  Maybe book a holiday in the North Pole when we get our summer heat.  

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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

You nuts?  Most of us love warmth.  Maybe book a holiday in the North Pole when we get our summer heat.  

I take it your happy with the EPS extended then if you like warmth!!!

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I take it your happy with the EPS extended then if you like warmth!!!

Well, the ext EPS shows settled mild weather (euro ridge)  If we can't have snow then let's have some dry warm(ish) weather.

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Well, the ext EPS shows settled mild weather (euro ridge)  If we can't have snow then let's have some dry warm(ish) weather.

Looks more sceuro to me, so not as bad as a bartlett, although i don't have the dataset, just going off the 5 day mean posted by Knocker.

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BREAKING NEWS!!!!!! We have a greeny high cluster in the extended  with downstream deep nw euro trough ...........

 hang on ........

2 members from 51 .......

is that it ??

sorry ..........

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52 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - lets have a cold showery wet summer please - no oppressive heat.

No bring on the heat with severe storms to follow that lovely sun

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Hopefully we can break some Feb warmth records, very possible. Early taste of Spring and a welcomed closure to a huge winter of let downs.

Looking forward to warm and sunny days now, goodbye winter 2018/19.

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

CB3F76BF-96E1-4D20-878A-35C80E827AB2.thumb.png.a1cfb35dd985f8dc920cb6432bbced68.png

thats a long southerly draw

It's incredible how wrong the forecasts/teleconnection projections have been , when we are seeing the complete and utter opposite of their predictions. 

Something has gone massively wrong somewhere.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!! We have a greeny high cluster in the extended  with downstream deep nw euro trough ...........

 hang on ........

2 members from 51 .......

is that it ??

sorry ..........

Yes, saw that - 3.6% or something, i wouldn't mind if there were some other good clusters but by 360, thats the only one really.

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

No bring on the heat with severe storms to follow that lovely sun

I don't mind storms, but you need the surface heat to get them, so that when the upper trough moves in from the West, there is a steep vertical temperature lapse, just cannot stand heat.

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's incredible how wrong the forecasts/teleconnection projections have been , when we are seeing the complete and utter opposite of their predictions. 

Something has gone massively wrong somewhere.

In some ways, it’s comforting to know that despite the most powerful of computer systems and projections, nature just cannot be predicted. I would suggest the fact there’s so many known drivers/forecast and predictions that it seems like it’s unusual for things to be predicted so wrong when in fact things have advanced so much we don’t really know how reliable all these models/teleconnections ect actually are.

That made sense in my head, not so sure now 😂 

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they sit behind a screen predict ( guess ) basically and we buy into it 

its very difficult to believe and not get drawn into the metoffice guess work 

and also looking past t144 is fun if you see the charts you wish and love to see 

especially regarding cold and snow chances 

but for myself in general I feel ive learnt a lot this winter 

to not take much notice of long rage predictions and to try my very best next winter not to stick to around the t144 mark

anyway I will be back tommorrow morning on the 6z to look past t144 😂😂😂

Edited by Lampostwatcher

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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!! We have a greeny high cluster in the extended  with downstream deep nw euro trough ...........

 hang on ........

2 members from 51 .......

is that it ??

sorry ..........

Acorns remember.  Have to start somewhere! 😛

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Hardly looked at the models the last few days as it looks a real struggle now to get any cold in (as it basically has this entire winter)...looked at 12z ecm at 24z and then skipped out to 240z and guess what hardly any difference! ...I'll come back in a few days time when in all likely hood they'll be no change again.

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