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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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41 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Background signals are one thing but we are a VERY small island at the end of a large ocean mass and in following the models for many years in t'inernet age it really does require every domino to fall the right way to get extended and deep cold to these shores (GIN sea shotwave anyone!) . However even in winters such as the one just gone certain areas can get really decent falls of snow and its often a regional thing

As an example here in Edinburgh we really need an Easterly with -10 uppers and we get panned . Got that last March but not this year. But that likely wont give much to the west country / central southern england who had the really good snowfall event a few weeks back with the exact ripe 'slider' type conditions. So in reality its rare as hens teeth that everywhere sees snow in winter, twas always thus

Good Post, but these events were 2 a penny in the 70s and 80s, personally I think there is to much over analysis going on. We only need heights to set up shop in the right place, and boom!! But some seem to think we need a large scale miracle just to get these events into the UK! I'm sceptical to say the least. Cater into the fact our latitude in the NH, and our distance from the article circle, it really shouldnt have to be some kind of miracle to achieve a worthwhile cold snap! 🤔

Edited by Mattwolves
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17 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Something screwy there because its says Madrid normal rainfall for January is 1mm and it  recorded 12mm last month.

That's about two showers' worth, Mr D...It's hardly difficult to exceed an average of only 1mm!😁

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1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Except the Spanish Meto.

I'd love to know UK Meto's take on why their Spanish 'equivs' got it spot on for Iberia; basically dry&settled - correct. They 'knew' a mid-Lat High would be almost ever-present, which indirectly (or directly i suppose) would affect UK's winter weather. So why didnt UK Meto 'spot it', so to speak? Or other global forecasters, for that matter?

Background Signals - there are ever-present ones that hugely modify UK weather. The Atlantic and the gulf stream. Always my starting point for any UK Winter weather expectations. That way (realistic) expectations start from a low base. We have a maritime climate, simple as. Central and E Europe have a continental one. These simple ever-presents and understanding of, should be a starting point for any weather enthusiast on here, before getting too hooked up on whether 'other' background signals are likely to affect our weather.

  excellent post bb  totally agree  as for background signals I don’t think it counts for much with the climate we have here in the UK 

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19 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Except the flooding in october and november,

Do you have a Spanish Met forecast so we can compare 

In my book October and November are Autumn months so my 'wild' stab-in-the-dark assumption is those months do not form part of an Iberian Winter weather forecast.

No, not to hand.

I think others have just proved the accuweather site is riddled with errors so one can consign your orig post, referencing Madrid rainfall (from AccuW), to the proverbial dustbin.

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4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

In my book October and November are Autumn months so my 'wild' stab-in-the-dark assumption is those months do not form part of an Iberian Winter weather forecast.

No, not to hand.

I think others have just proved the accuweather site is riddled with errors so one can consign your orig post, referencing Madrid rainfall (from AccuW), to the proverbial dustbin.

I did a little digging and the Spanish winter forecast (probability) was for a wetter than average season DEC-FEB. not sure that supports your Iberian high.
 

image.thumb.png.aaaa94d48e6110c0ee92068042b6bfad.png

https://web.archive.org/web/20181204234012/http://www.aemet.es/en/serviciosclimaticos/prediccion_estacional

Maybe you are confusing weekly forecast with seasonal ones?

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40 minutes ago, Convergence said:

Not sure the Accuweather historical data is accurate with it's 1mm normal amount for January. Some other sites give a normal rainfall for Jan in Madrid in the region 37mm. That would make this years Jan rainfall for Madrid about 30% of normal which ties in better with the "dry and settled" for the rest of Spain and Portugal.

For what it's worth, Madrid's average rainfall in January is 32 mm.( Met office source )

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3 hours ago, shaky said:

Amazing how there is cold air either side of us but the uk has the mildest air in the northern hemisphere😂😂

Nothing unusual about that.

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Afternoon, before the 12z comes out I'll post the latest swingometers.

Not much more to add on recent days unfortunately. The output remarkably consistent when it comes to a mild picture. The swingometers for February 20th are almost completely swayed to a mild outlook.

image.thumb.png.9cd48651cea1468a021eaf0ab4cf8f71.png

Further afield the output towards February 25th is also mild with the only change being a more mild anticyclonic outlook so if the cloud lifts then the second half of February is going to be very springlike indeed. One rogue member goes for an isolated easterly but that is it for the moment. Still some distance away and things may change but I'm on the verge of concluding there will be no more significant cold for the remainder of February.

image.thumb.png.92cc081698109a929307255c56750333.pngimage.thumb.png.b03d59aadfa79f9f5d929d4da46c3691.png 

All the cold seems to be focused on the west of North America and NE Canada, so I expect the polar vortex to be stuck to the Greenland area for a good while yet. MJO forecast to ease off its phase 8 mode and become very weak. Quite a sharp and sudden turn so it will be interesting to see how that goes, a huge amount of uncertainty after tomorrow...

 image.thumb.png.9689c7a763560a2533c6367062b15a27.png image.thumb.png.fd7392f937b68b0265778c90495df069.png

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4 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

I wish I could remember the person on here who laughed at my comment back in early January when I said this would be a mild winter. they said based on what!!

My answer! based on what the models have shown all winter the cold was always 10 or more days away and has been since December. The beast was never going to show it’s head this time.

PenicuikBlizzard,,,hope this particular person remembers my name!!

I’m no expert just reading between the lines like everyone on here.

We will just ignore the week of cold weather then so you can slap your self on the back.

 

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

We will just ignore the week of cold weather then so you can slap your self on the back.

 

Oh yeah the cold blip in the overall mild winter 😂

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1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Oh yeah the cold blip in the overall mild winter 😂

The cold blip (Week) that didn't remain outside day 10. Thank you for acknowledging your original statement was wrong.

And if i wanted to be really picky I could ask how you had hindsight of something that had yet to happen?

 

Quote

My answer! based on what the models have shown all winter the cold was always 10 or more days away and has been since December. The beast was never going to show it’s head this time.

 

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think it's the other TWELVE weeks that PB was referring to?:wallbash:

How can that be the cold remained beyond day 10 right?

So if we ignore the fact that we did have a week of cold weather plus other cold snaps we also have to face the reality that there where some juicy charts within the day 10 range.

You keep hitting that head against the wall, all those banter posts probably distracted you from actual model output 👍

 

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5 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Oh yeah the cold blip in the overall mild winter 😂

well just up the road from you here it has been a cold winter, unfortunately no snow but continually been scraping the car for weeks. It is milder now and it will be interesting to see the actual stats but whilst it has been snowless here it has certainly not been mild. 

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14 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

I wish I could remember the person on here who laughed at my comment back in early January when I said this would be a mild winter. they said based on what!!

My answer! based on what the models have shown all winter the cold was always 10 or more days away and has been since December. The beast was never going to show it’s head this time.

PenicuikBlizzard,,,hope this particular person remembers my name!!

I’m no expert just reading between the lines like everyone on here.

The reality is though, that your prediction would have literally just been a lucky guess! You say your prediction for a month ahead was based on the fact cold didn't come within the day 10 range, but your predicting a month ahead? See how little sense that makes? 

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When the cold hunt becomes desperate, what do we do? We look at the long term cfs for hope. Probably about a 1% chance of verification, but hey in this winter so far even 1% is a starting point. 😜

cfs-2-444.png

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2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Can't agree with Matt Hugo there. Yes, it has been blocky, but of a mid latitude as opposed to high latitude block, that's why we've missed out, yet Eastern and South Eastern Europe has done rather well out the UK block.

This is modernWinter stuff really.

@mountain shadow you would thing that anomaly is a dream for us in Slovakia being under dark blue anomalies, yet December ended about 1C above average, January about average and February will be above average as well. The high ground did well but altitudes below 300m asl has a mediocre winter overall with with pattern - snowfall,thaw,snowfall,thaw,snowfall,thaw, early spring soon. Had good mid December and mid January spells with about 10cm max snow depth. Thanks god not high pressure with fog, instead plenty below -10C mornings and very sunny days, that were the highlights of the winter. For the European standards looking at that anomaly we finished pretty well, could have been much milder and snow free if we were a bit more west.

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6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

How can that be the cold remained beyond day 10 right?

So if we ignore the fact that we did have a week of cold weather plus other cold snaps we also have to face the reality that there where some juicy charts within the day 10 range.

You keep hitting that head against the wall, all those banter posts probably distracted you from actual model output 👍

 

just one cold week in winter is still pretty pants for the UK though...i would expect one cold week per month in an average British winter

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24 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

I wish I could remember the person on here who laughed at my comment back in early January when I said this would be a mild winter. they said based on what!!

My answer! based on what the models have shown all winter the cold was always 10 or more days away and has been since December. The beast was never going to show it’s head this time.

PenicuikBlizzard,,,hope this particular person remembers my name!!

I’m no expert just reading between the lines like everyone on here.

Well to be fair if your opinion for winter to be over in early January was based on no cold showing for 10 days then that only brings you up to mid January, Winters midpoint, so it makes no sense whatsoever. 10 days later at mid January cold could have shown up within 10 days by that point making your previous method for how 2 months of weather would transpire completely defunct lol. 

Edited by StormyWeather28
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16 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

I wish I could remember the person on here who laughed at my comment back in early January when I said this would be a mild winter. they said based on what!!

My answer! based on what the models have shown all winter the cold was always 10 or more days away and has been since December. The beast was never going to show it’s head this time.

PenicuikBlizzard,,,hope this particular person remembers my name!!

I’m no expert just reading between the lines like everyone on here.

Are you sure? because countless people with more skill and knowledge than us lot put together have at times been baffled as to why this winter has been a bust. If you genuinely thought it was going to be a mild winter back in december before we saw the effects of the ssw, background signals, how the US storm would scupper our easterly attempt etc etc, you are more of an expert than anyone. 

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24 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

I wish I could remember the person on here who laughed at my comment back in early January when I said this would be a mild winter. they said based on what!!

My answer! based on what the models have shown all winter the cold was always 10 or more days away and has been since December. The beast was never going to show it’s head this time.

PenicuikBlizzard,,,hope this particular person remembers my name!!

I’m no expert just reading between the lines like everyone on here.

It takes zero skill to predict mild in this county for winter lol but if you want to float your own trumpet then be my guest. 

 

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Is it safe to discuss model output yet, rather than the nagging conversation of how mild iberia was, or how wet, or whether we had a 1 week cold spell or not!! I'm gerrin scared now! 

photo-1494256997604-768d1f608cac.jpeg

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Unless post's contains "Model Output discussion" It doesn't belong in here.

Currently, 90% of post belong in the Winter thread which is here..

Please take note as they will end up going missing if this continues.

Thanks please continue.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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23 minutes ago, Smartie said:

It takes zero skill to predict mild in this county for winter lol but if you want to float your own trumpet then be my guest. 

 

True, but also the 'form horse' to start with

and if one likes a flutter and a clever punter plays the probabilities then saying a UK winter will likely be mild and not cold is just being sensible.

The trouble with this place is that every Winter (and with increasing frequency imho) is that members' expectations are set way too high and people follow or believe the eternal optimists and almost ignore the down-to-earth realists.

Classic example is the ever-consistent theme of Chasing the Easterlies. Reality is that a sustained Winter Easterly/NE beyond, say, 4 days is a rare beast for the UK; maybe on average a once in every 5 year occurence? (Back of fag packet calc).

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