Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

gfs-1-384.thumb.png.9726e16a1b60b1fb8539bef35961bb23.pngNot a great deal of shift from the 0z to the 6z at similar time frames, still the annoying cold to our west, and cold to our east, perhaps something cooler approaching from the west later, but hell its just to far off to be bothered with. 

gfs-1-384 (1).png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Fl is where that mini dip in the charts is, I will not look any further than that. It might stay mild or flip to cold, don't know which, but could still go either way.

Unfortunately, that is not the case.

The reanalysis of the pattern for the last 10 weeks is:

It is no coincidence the GEFS mean for the next 16 days mirrors this pattern. It is a relatively blocked pattern driven by those omnipresent blocks. We should have good confidence in the medium to long term rather than low confidence.

Winter is a bust and even if we get into a better pattern, a cold wet Spring will just rub more salt into the wounds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Bar the short dip down to around average for a couple of days early next week the overall theme is mild

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.064a4038ddfb8f1c5aa07d93034963de.pnggefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.0437bb759aea2009751a9583d424ae6b.png

In fact on the Edinburgh chart, fl is as early as the 17th. Before the main dip.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesnt look good at all for any cold weather this winter sadly.  Ive really enjoyed this thread and the hunt though!!  Mother nature wont be nailed down to a 10 day chart even with the immense computing power we have in this day and age!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Unfortunately, that is not the case.

The reanalysis of the pattern for the last 10 weeks is:

It is no coincidence the GEFS mean for the next 16 days mirrors this pattern. It is a relatively blocked pattern driven by those omnipresent blocks. We should have good confidence in the medium to long term rather than low confidence.

Winter is a bust and even if we get into a better pattern, a cold wet Spring will just rub more salt into the wounds.

Not to long ago those patterns agreed with the cold spell. They flipped just before the met office update did. Unlikely they will flip back admittedly, but it does show they can be wrong sometimes.

Edited by alexisj9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, IDO said:

Unfortunately, that is not the case.

The reanalysis of the pattern for the last 10 weeks is:

It is no coincidence the GEFS mean for the next 16 days mirrors this pattern. It is a relatively blocked pattern driven by those omnipresent blocks. We should have good confidence in the medium to long term rather than low confidence.

Winter is a bust and even if we get into a better pattern, a cold wet Spring will just rub more salt into the wounds.

Yes; but, despite all that omnipresent blocking (reanalysis is only really hindsight?) no more than a handful of Day 7-10 forecasts ever materialised. So why should anything change now?🤔

Edit: I'm not in any way expecting a sudden switch to cold - rather that I don't see why the models should suddenly start getting things right.

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Not to long ago those patterns agreed with the cold spell. They flipped just before the met office update did. Unlikely they will flip back admittedly, but it does show they can be wrong sometimes.

Being on the merry go round for many years looking for Winter cold and one thing I have learned, when cold is forecast and it invariably flips, it almost never flips back!

And I have to come to terms, that in fact, there was never any chance of cold, just the nuances of weather models getting the algorithms wrong and leading us down the garden path!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of very sensible posting today, if I may say so without sounding horribly patronising. 

It's probably true for a lot of us that if we can't have a good snow event we might as well have Spring. The grey muck in between isn't a ball of fun.

The 6z just continues the Spring theme. It won't last forever but we may as well enjoy it for now. It is absolutely glorious out there today in Exeter.

Edited by West is Best

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Yes; but, despite all that omnipresent blocking (reanalysis is only really hindsight?) no more than a handful of Day 7-10 forecasts ever materialised. So why should anything change now?🤔

Bearing in mind the Pros struggling with this Winter's forecast and the historical composites being wide of the mark, maybe it is prudent to rely on more up to date data and a composite of the last 2-3 months may be a good starting point?

The composite posted will reflect a muted MJO and a bust SSW downwelling, variables that previous forecasts may have not pre-included, hence their fail. The models going forward will discount the SSW and may indeed have learned from the MJO interference so should verify better?

Of course, this ongoing pattern will eventually weaken, and then maybe a reset, but until then it may be a reasonable guide.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, IDO said:

Unfortunately, that is not the case.

The reanalysis of the pattern for the last 10 weeks is:

It is no coincidence the GEFS mean for the next 16 days mirrors this pattern. It is a relatively blocked pattern driven by those omnipresent blocks. We should have good confidence in the medium to long term rather than low confidence.

Winter is a bust and even if we get into a better pattern, a cold wet Spring will just rub more salt into the wounds.

Can't agree with Matt Hugo there. Yes, it has been blocky, but of a mid latitude as opposed to high latitude block, that's why we've missed out, yet Eastern and South Eastern Europe has done rather well out the UK block.

This is modernWinter stuff really.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Can't agree with Matt Hugo there. Yes, it has been blocky, but of a mid latitude as opposed to high latitude block, that's why we've missed out, yet Eastern and South Eastern Europe has done rather well out the UK block.

This is modernWinter stuff really.

Not sure the MW cods wallpop had low height over Europe. or a jet running north west to south east.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Anyone can say this so please provide charts to back your predictions up, the models update several times  a day, things can change, and have changed before 

March has seen some of the snowiest times for us over recent years so for one not time to give up, your more than welcome to and pop to another thread in the hunt for spring but those who love cold, snow will stay here and hunt for it 🙂

Just a hunch more than anything and going by current charts.  Not saying it won’t happen but it doesn’t look promising atm.

PS I love cold and snow and not ready for the spring hunt yet 😉

Edited by Don

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Paul said:

Excellent observations from Nick F. In hindsight we all see that the El Niño in conjunction with the WQBO has me believing that  any periods of UK snowfall this winter, was quite an achievement. 

A momumental achievement against those two major forces. Long range models picked up the signal for blocking, although they predicted them to be higher up latitude wise. 

They were in effect correct just not on the exact positions of the HP cells. ( Very rare to see such long periods of HP dominating UK pattern/not to be confused with a Bartlett pattern)

 In my opinion that does not constitute as a forecast failure but simply that they could not accurately predict the effect of the downwelling WQBO and the continued tropical forcing/ thermal energy release from El Niño. 

So we face a transition period, that will only break when the tipping point is reached. What we want now is for this pattern to hold through the summer months.

When the + NOA pattern does break and it will, HLB will become more fesiable. 

If asked. “Will we ever see a repeat of 2010?” My answer would be yes. 

It requires specific parameters I.e solar minimum, EQBO and above neutral ENSO state. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Afternoon all. Ok here goes. Are you ready. My take on on the models today is mmmmm aaaarrr reerrer ........................ I ain't a scooby doo . And that's goodnight from him and goodnight from me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Afternoon all. Ok here goes. Are you ready. My take on on the models today is mmmmm aaaarrr reerrer ........................ I ain't a scooby doo . And that's goodnight from him and goodnight from me.

Hang on a sec, we have only got to 6z runs, let's hold fire till this evening! Scooby do and the 2 Ronnie's in one sentence! Even I'm confused 😉

Edited by Mattwolves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, IDO said:

Bearing in mind the Pros struggling with this Winter's forecast....

Except the Spanish Meto.

I'd love to know UK Meto's take on why their Spanish 'equivs' got it spot on for Iberia; basically dry&settled - correct. They 'knew' a mid-Lat High would be almost ever-present, which indirectly (or directly i suppose) would affect UK's winter weather. So why didnt UK Meto 'spot it', so to speak? Or other global forecasters, for that matter?

Background Signals - there are ever-present ones that hugely modify UK weather. The Atlantic and the gulf stream. Always my starting point for any UK Winter weather expectations. That way (realistic) expectations start from a low base. We have a maritime climate, simple as. Central and E Europe have a continental one. These simple ever-presents and understanding of, should be a starting point for any weather enthusiast on here, before getting too hooked up on whether 'other' background signals are likely to affect our weather.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Background signals are one thing but we are a VERY small island at the end of a large ocean mass and in following the models for many years in t'inernet age it really does require every domino to fall the right way to get extended and deep cold to these shores (GIN sea shotwave anyone!) . However even in winters such as the one just gone certain areas can get really decent falls of snow and its often a regional thing

As an example here in Edinburgh we really need an Easterly with -10 uppers and we get panned . Got that last March but not this year. But that likely wont give much to the west country / central southern england who had the really good snowfall event a few weeks back with the exact ripe 'slider' type conditions. So in reality its rare as hens teeth that everywhere sees snow in winter, twas always thus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Except the Spanish Meto.

I'd love to know UK Meto's take on why their Spanish 'equivs' got it spot on for Iberia; basically dry&settled - correct. They 'knew' a mid-Lat High would be almost ever-present, which indirectly (or directly i suppose) would affect UK's winter weather. So why didnt UK Meto 'spot it', so to speak? Or other global forecasters, for that matter?

Background Signals - there are ever-present ones that hugely modify UK weather. The Atlantic and the gulf stream. Always my starting point for any UK Winter weather expectations. That way (realistic) expectations start from a low base. We have a maritime climate, simple as. Central and E Europe have a continental one. These simple ever-presents and understanding of, should be a starting point for any weather enthusiast on here, before getting too hooked up on whether 'other' background signals are likely to affect our weather.

Madrid suffered 1200% more rainfall in January than normal.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/spain/madrid/a/january-weather/308526?monyr=1/1/2019&view=table

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the output it is notable that the high is forecast to strengthen near the UK as the Euro progresses, this high could persist for some time.

It is also a shame this is not happening a month later. The current output could rival the likes of 03 and 12.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

18 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Something screwy there because its says Madrid normal rainfall for January is 1mm and it  recorded 12mm last month.

 

 

Edited by Weather-history

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure the Accuweather historical data is accurate with it's 1mm normal amount for January. Some other sites give a normal rainfall for Jan in Madrid in the region 37mm. That would make this years Jan rainfall for Madrid about 30% of normal which ties in better with the "dry and settled" for the rest of Spain and Portugal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

It's high up. Majority of Spain and Portugal have been v dry and settled.

Except the flooding in october and november,

Do you have a Spanish Met forecast so we can compare 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Convergence said:

Not sure the Accuweather historical data is accurate with it's 1mm normal amount for January. Some other sites give a normal rainfall for Jan in Madrid in the region 37mm. That would make this years Jan rainfall for Madrid about 30% of normal which ties in better with the "dry and settled" for the rest of Spain and Portugal.

My post was meant in jest 😂😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

My post was meant in jest 😂😂

Fair enough, wish I could find some reason to laugh about our winter though 😞

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...