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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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3 hours ago, Eastnorthwest said:

AO is plus 3 at the moment ,we need it to be at neutral and showing it going to at least -4/5 before we see any real change to what we have now ,enjoy the spring spell while it lasts

If only it were a spring spell. GFS showing downpours and gales for much of next week, especially up north. And knowing our luck this winter it will be right.

With the stronger sun and the longer days, I wouldn't mind the HP too much. Of course, I would prefer snow and cold, but that's clearly not happening. 

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The output might be suggesting it's time to file this winter away, preferably the circular file, but still plenty to be happy about here. 

Just enjoyed a coffee and a vape in the garden. Glorious morning out. Birds chirping, bright and a nip in the air 👍 I'll take second prize today! 

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32 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, any towels left on the loungers this morning? 

Very few. Looks like the met will be right  for once wirh their mild outlook. Soda law when it's boring being. Rubbish they'd get it right. It's utter pish 

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Just now, Number 23 said:

The output might be suggesting it's time to file this winter away, preferably the circular file, but still plenty to be happy about here. 

Just enjoyed a coffee and a vape in the garden. Glorious morning out. Birds chirping, bright and a nip in the air 👍 I'll take second prize today! 

Yoire easily pleased 

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Winter can bite hard in March and April but the overnight runs continue the theme that this week, and possibly next, are going to feel an awful lot like Spring.

That's all really 😳

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Nothing much to add to the above except to add that as we all know that op runs from 144 to 384 always verify exactly as shown don't they.🤔

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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5 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Winter can bite hard in March and April but the overnight runs continue the theme that this week, and possibly next, are going to feel an awful lot like Spring.

That's all really 😳

And, that will feel really pleasant.

So much better than that horrible cold uncomfortable weather!  :oldlaugh:

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4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Nothing much to add to the above except to add that as we all know that op runs from 144 to 384 always verify exactly as shown don't they.🤔

When they show mild south westers and a euro slug the models seem to work at their best !

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Absolutely....when we have the default weather pattern of Atlantic driven weather it usually ends up being right. Going to take something mighty to deliver now, February looks like it’s also going in the bin....so March will have to pack a serious punch.

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

It is quite clear that whatever height rises the models were hinting at was just background noise. That is no surprise as there is really no forcing on the long wave pattern, very flat apart from the mid-latitude UK high. The D10 GEFS show that any ridge is now gone:

gens_panel_uko6.png

Although I would say the PV is ripe for punishment, there is just not enough wave activity to do the job and as the PV remains mobile any potential will get toppled in short course.

At D16 the GEFS offer little prospects of cold:

gens_panel_pik9.png London> graphe3_1000_313_152___.thumb.gif.e34b161c1bda6e8d7262498451087e8d.gif

The mean upper cold is well above average for all but a couple of days in the next 16. The few runs showing cold are zonal.

That takes us into the start of March and the NH profile on the op is self-explanatory:

958702042_gfsnh-0-384(2).thumb.png.b8bc048ac913d006f97949098885c992.png

It has become clear to me that MJO, SSW, and other background signals have been misplaced this Winter. No doubt the experts will reanalyze and maybe the usual composites will need to be adjusted for similar setups?

And before someone says March can be cold, it can, it can also be chilly with cold rain, or zonal or mild or dry!

Time to draw stumps for another season?

Are you not expecting a v amplified trough /ridge / trough to set up ??

alas, we are going to be under the ridge - not a HLB but certainly a ridge at a high enough latitude that if it were centred 750 ish miles west we would be wintry 

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Are you not expecting a v amplified trough /ridge / trough to set up ??

alas, we are going to be under the ridge - not a HLB but certainly a ridge at a high enough latitude that if it were centred 750 ish miles west we would be wintry 

Yes, Atlantic/UK ridging going forward is the call. But as you say it will not work for us and I do not expect a shift to favor us. 

The Hadley Cell in the Pacific remains quasi-permanent, creating a wave train of HP cells and cyclones. We would need a static Rossby wave in the Pacific to shift the pattern and that does not look likely in this ongoing scenario.

The GFS in FI does not model the wave breaking well at that range, but as the post-D10 gets closer it should reflect the ridge/trough saga.

Maybe we get a shift from another variable, but at the moment I would expect mild>cold as a generality.

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended remaining mild with some rain in the west

ukm2.2019022000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.b0d561e9fd13fc3f790846a36380234a.png

with that low pressure in the Atlantic this chart is more October like, one wonders when will the energy in the Atlantic slow down

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32 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Yoire easily pleased 

Not really. I enjoy severe cold spells, but that doesn't mean I can't enjoy other conditions, especially when they remind me that the seasons are about to turn after a very disappointing period. 

The output speaks for itself at the moment. No point lingering on the negatives. 

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Exceptionally mild GEFS this morning apart from a minor dip to 'average'.

image.thumb.png.eb8fe52209f4f8c992e6c8b770f100bb.png

February really could end up in the 'very or exceptionally mild' category - laughably ironic after all the hype we've been subjected to!

Nature says - "if you thought December & January was bad, you ain't seen nothing yet guys - LOL". 🤣

😩

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Ext EPS - no change!

Euro ridge with little evidence of any Phase 8 MJO pattern

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Little change over the next 5-days very little rain and high pressure remains in charge for most with only the far north and west seeing something a bit more unsettled

gfs_euro-lc_aprcp_5-day.thumb.png.d1502fc431a01a8c85ee713a4d4af194.pnggfs_euro-lc_mslp_5-day.thumb.png.cd6ee916a4918642d03b4cd0f83b2317.png

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9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

with that low pressure in the Atlantic this chart is more October like, one wonders when will the energy in the Atlantic slow down

The Atlantic has not that much energy this winter as such. It has been blocked at times, few Atlantic storms. However there has been enough energy to prevent significant northerly blocking. It has not been a stormy wet winter.

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This winter feels very much like 2016-17 - HP mainly in the wrong place during December, then fairly average temps in January with nothing of note in terms of a cold spell, then the February of that year was very mild, much in the way this month appears to be now heading.

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Morning peeps 😊

Feels really like a spring morning today here in Walthamstow North East London. I guess now it is actually time to give up I still have the picture of the slight snow we had but no marks on my coffee cup as it is spilled but I do have a head of shattered dreams. What I thought would get delivered this season and what it has turned out alas it's to heartbreaking to think about.

We all know deep down it's nearly the end of the road for this season. It is highly unlikely now that we will get a dramatic change that will put us in the freezer. The current output does not suggest this, but all we are left to do is look for any crumbs of comfort. We were given a taste of our lolly and we had that now even the left over stick has got splinters.

i know us coldies will all be back here to start a fresh slate and begin our chase once again next winter. What a journey it's been, but what has really made this worthwhile is the forum members in here. I know there's been ups and downs but we have stuck together. Now slowly slowly we will get off our stops till next season. 

Unless anything dramatic happens and we are back on the chase I wish you all a great next several months. Unless you are like me and will still be here chasing the next weather Thinderstotms 😊. Stay safe all and take care speak to you all soon 😊😊😊😊😊

kind regards

Winter wonderland - we will be back in your search 😊

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Id happily take 13 degrees and sunshine from down south for a 2nd best prize.... Here in West Scotland its grey cloud, drizzle, rain, windy, 9 degrees....dull, boring and miserable weather, couldn't get any worse. 😣 And looking at models there won't be much improvement for us! 

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Whatever the reasons for the general inability to correctly forecast this winter (we'll need wait for the conclusions of a lot of collective head-scratching?) my eyes are now turning towards increasing warmth, away to our south...

image.thumb.png.6b1c187a3c3fed7cd4680429b58812ff.png

That aside, in the meantime, let's hope the 06Z can salvage something, cold-wise?:drinks:

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'Cold to the left of me, cold to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with you'

ECH0-240_sxi5.GIF

 

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I must admit that while holding out hope for a March snowfall in the wild blue yonder. I will happily take mild DRY and springlike for now.  At least I can get ahead with jobs around the house and garden. 

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