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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Gets flattened late on.

Yeh, was just gonna say, it's lost its way big time, seems a million miles away from the 12s

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9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

18z para looking interesting 👌

gfs-1-252.png

We just need to move the uk much further east into that purple blob..that would be interesting!😉👍

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Just now, Frosty. said:

We just need to move the uk much further east into that purple blob..that would be interesting!😉👍

Seemed to be heading right for us frosty, then hits the buffers and dives S/SE. these runs are all over the place. 😒

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Seemed to be heading right for us frosty, then hits the buffers and dives S/SE. these runs are all over the place. 😒

So bloody frustrating, everytime you look way out west, you see cold uppers. Then you look way out east and see cold uppers, then you see a that great big blob of nothingness sitting right over the UK. So on tonight's efforts. THE COMPUTERS SAY NOOOOOOOO!!!!! 

CD24771667-1.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So bloody frustrating, everytime you look way out west, you see cold uppers. Then you look way out east and see cold uppers, then you see a that great big blob of nothingness sitting right over the UK. So on tonight's efforts. THE COMPUTERS SAY NOOOOOOOO!!!!! 

CD24771667-1.jpg

That's enough time in the torture chamber for me today..back for more punishment tomorrow!!!!👍😃

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Actually the 18z GEFS are an upgrade, they might not be all that great in graph form, but the mean ridge is sharper and further North and the cold pool ever so slightly nearer, deeper into FI so if they went further, there would be more stonkers than on the 12z.

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Here they are.

image.thumb.png.59e6122b4c60dbf01dc6f12087c84405.png

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4 hours ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

At least ecmwf isn't stormy in the mid-long term. Anything is better than mild, wet and windy. So at least that's an improvement since yesterday.

I shouldn't have said anything, now GFS, gefs and GFS p have gone back to being stormy with continuous rain for days in the long term. Such a massive swing from the 12z.

And the complete opposite to what the AO trend suggests

ao.sprd2.gif

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Here they are.

image.thumb.png.59e6122b4c60dbf01dc6f12087c84405.png

Apart from the far reaches of FI where a few dive off they are pretty rubbish. Understand sypnotically they may be an upgrade but with that few members even anywhere near the -5 line it’s a poor set, I think more than anything it shows how bad things have got that those seem like an upgrade.

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Whens the Hunt for a  warm spring thread roll out

Start it on Friday for me.

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Just to rub salt into the wounds, Stav on the Beeb this evening was emphasizing the extreme cold and 'whiteout' conditions in the USA and Canada. Skiing in the streets of Seattle and up to 40cm falls in the Mid West & the East.

image.thumb.png.3151938ac6e311078c05a2ba20b6b056.pngimage.thumb.png.84a608bbf5ea977466097b3382a94566.png

Of course, this is hugely buckling the jet so that... you got it, we get super mild conditions here AGAIN.

Only thing worse than enduring a boring mild cr*pfest all winter is hearing about others up to there necks in snow and cold that they don't want!

I'll close tonight with this delectable rendition from the lovely GFSP FI

image.thumb.png.348a0da55915655bf7b0172864f3e610.png

G'night...

😡

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7 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Whens the Hunt for a  warm spring thread roll out

Start it on Friday for me.

That could be a plan, as soon as we start searching for that, it's just bound to turn cold! 

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It's hard not be sarcastic. So I won't bother. Crap charts. UK always the wrong side of where we want it to be. It's like a conspiracy. Greedy yanks. Also used to be proud to be British. Now it's a pain. 

Edited by snowfish1

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11 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

It's hard not be sarcastic. So I won't bother. Crap charts. UK always the wrong side of where we want it to be. It's like a conspiracy. Greedy yanks. Also used to be proud to be British. Now it's a pain. 

  as long as usa and  Canada stays cold no way then we can get cold here in the UK especially with the crappy climate we have here. 😞😞😒😩

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1 hour ago, markw2680 said:

Well after an awful display of so called football I was hoping not to be greeted to 💩 charts 🤔

Yh Bolton lol. Bolton are the equivalent of this Winter. Terrible all season with one good day lol. But as a Villa fan I loved it lol. Models look dire, this Winter has been relegated in my memory. Let's hope next Winter is better. Seems a pattern now of bad winters.

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10 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  as long as usa and  Canada stays cold no way then we can get cold here in the UK especially with the crappy climate we have here. 😞😞😒😩

Dont look at the pics. Friend tweeted me and omg so much snow 🙄🙄

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2 hours ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

The snow will come all .give it time night.

I’m 55 now, how much more time ? Lol

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4 hours ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

I shouldn't have said anything, now GFS, gefs and GFS p have gone back to being stormy with continuous rain for days in the long term. Such a massive swing from the 12z.

And the complete opposite to what the AO trend suggests

ao.sprd2.gif

AO is plus 3 at the moment ,we need it to be at neutral and showing it going to at least -4/5 before we see any real change to what we have now ,enjoy the spring spell while it lasts

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4 hours ago, sorepaw1 said:

Whens the Hunt for a  warm spring thread roll out

Start it on Friday for me.

Don't throw the towel in yet m8 still plenty of time for a change,especially where you live ,have a thought for yours truely down here in southeast suffolk less time for a snow event happening and our football team doomed for relegation to division 1,one wheel on my waggon ,na wa a mean pawsey 

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6 hours ago, snowfish1 said:

It's hard not be sarcastic. So I won't bother. Crap charts. UK always the wrong side of where we want it to be. It's like a conspiracy. Greedy yanks. Also used to be proud to be British. Now it's a pain. 

Sunday shocker rain, then even warmer holiday week, on GFS 00Z

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7 hours ago, Frosty. said:

That's enough time in the torture chamber for me today..back for more punishment tomorrow!!!!👍😃

Well Karl, judging by the latest overnight run from the likes of the Ecm it would appear you were correct in preempting another day of punishment ahead. Usually such reverse psychology would produce more favourable results. 😂

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The ec suite continues on its painfully slow journey.....if it was four weeks ago I would be interested ..........

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It is quite clear that whatever height rises the models were hinting at was just background noise. That is no surprise as there is really no forcing on the long wave pattern, very flat apart from the mid-latitude UK high. The D10 GEFS show that any ridge is now gone:

gens_panel_uko6.png

Although I would say the PV is ripe for punishment, there is just not enough wave activity to do the job and as the PV remains mobile any potential will get toppled in short course.

At D16 the GEFS offer little prospects of cold:

gens_panel_pik9.png London> graphe3_1000_313_152___.thumb.gif.e34b161c1bda6e8d7262498451087e8d.gif

The mean upper cold is well above average for all but a couple of days in the next 16. The few runs showing cold are zonal.

That takes us into the start of March and the NH profile on the op is self-explanatory:

958702042_gfsnh-0-384(2).thumb.png.b8bc048ac913d006f97949098885c992.png

It has become clear to me that MJO, SSW, and other background signals have been misplaced this Winter. No doubt the experts will reanalyze and maybe the usual composites will need to be adjusted for similar setups?

And before someone says March can be cold, it can, it can also be chilly with cold rain, or zonal or mild or dry!

Time to draw stumps for another season?

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I've learnt my lesson this Winter, in fact it only further compounded what I thought before. I'll just stick to what the models are showing up to five days out before it flickers any interest in me. I won't entertain all the Background signals, Met office outlook, and LRF's. They're just too fraught and garden pathful, well for this part of the world at the very least. Signals... More like smoke signals sos

Edited by StormyWeather28
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