Cold hunt - models and chat

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A poor ECM run.

By day ten no energy heading se and a lack of trough disruption to the west . It’s currently like pulling teeth to get any ridging sufficiently ne .

The last chance saloon is about to close down!  If it wasn’t for the MJO I would already be throwing the towel in on any meaningful cold and snow before winter ends.

 

Even the usually day ten eye candy has vanished.yep nick the fat lady is clearing her throat imo

Edited February 12, 2019 by swfc

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Thankfully the old gfs will be binned come march 20th, at least the para looking more encouraging, much colder uppers incoming! 

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Fitting last day of winter!!  FV3 T384:

The first day of spring would be even colder.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Much more interesting from the gfs para, let's hope the new kid on the block is on to something. 

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A poor ECM run.

By day ten no energy heading se and a lack of trough disruption to the west . It’s currently like pulling teeth to get any ridging sufficiently ne .

The last chance saloon is about to close down!  If it wasn’t for the MJO I would already be throwing the towel in on any meaningful cold and snow before winter ends.

 

Take it your not a fan of mid to late March brutal cold spells then.

We should just wait for the eps first i think anyway.

Edited February 12, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Chris101]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A poor ECM run.

By day ten no energy heading se and a lack of trough disruption to the west . It’s currently like pulling teeth to get any ridging sufficiently ne .

The last chance saloon is about to close down!  If it wasn’t for the MJO I would already be throwing the towel in on any meaningful cold and snow before winter ends.

 

All eyes on the green line, needs a kick up to see ECM respond i think.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Take it your not a fan of mid to late March brutal cold spells then.

We should just wait for the eps first i think anyway.

May be too late for cold there mid to late March, not sure of his elevation mind you

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Take it your not a fan of mid to late March brutal cold spells then.

We should just wait for the eps first i think anyway.

Brutal cold spells in March need sensational synoptics unfortunately .

Last year was extremely rare and I can’t see that happening anytime soon . Of course some snow is always possible in March but in terms of meaningful cold and snow that can hang around it has to come really earlier in the month .

I’m not throwing the towel in yet simply because of the MJO, that’s the only thing really at this stage that can deliver a change.

Thats still expected to land in phase 8 . Let’s just say the GFS P was on the money that indeed does follow very close to the composite for the time lagged effect of phase 7 and 8 .

We live in hope !

[edinburgh_1992]

At least ecmwf isn't stormy in the mid-long term. Anything is better than mild, wet and windy. So at least that's an improvement since yesterday.

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Brutal cold spells in March need sensational synoptics unfortunately .

Last year was extremely rare and I can’t see that happening anytime soon . Of course some snow is always possible in March but in terms of meaningful cold and snow that can hang around it has to come really earlier in the month .

I’m not throwing the towel in yet simply because of the MJO, that’s the only thing really at this stage that can deliver a change.

Thats still expected to land in phase 8 . Let’s just say the GFS P was on the money that indeed does follow very close to the composite for the time lagged effect of phase 7 and 8 .

We live in hope !

Depends on what you class as extremely rare Nick.

2010 December was extremely rare. Once in 100 years

2013 March and 2018 March rare but happenened.

Edited February 12, 2019 by winterof79

[Sweatyman]

1 hour ago, Leon1 said:

Some people got the most snowfall in a decade and the coldest temps since 2010 were recorded so not at all a poor winter for some.

i refer you to our 1 and only 'snowfall' of this 'winter'

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

i refer you to our 1 and only 'snowfall' of this 'winter'

Hence SOME people.

[feb1991blizzard]

Remember though with the MJO, because it will be months end by the time any blocking occurs, we should be factoring in the much toned down March analogue.

[Leon1]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

Can't be serious the snowfall couple weeks ago was the best snowfalls in decade in parts of the South if that's the case boy the winters in the South have been absolutely  terrible then.

Yeah, they usually are terrible. Actually, it was more than 2010, 2013 and 2018. It matched 2009 so that equals a decade. I don't know why your trying to argue that.

[E17boy]

DEAR MR HIGH PRESSURE 

I am writing today to you to express my total discuss having found out that you have taken up residence in my end of season showroom.

As you know I have not had a good season so far and was hoping to go out with a bang but you are rubbing salt on the wounds.

It also has come to my notice that the heating has gone up thanks to your room mate Southwesterly and this has caused a lot of my clients to complain and even throw towels and toys at me.

Bearing in mind you had a good season last year I let you stay for a good few months and customers were satisfied because of your heat. Now is the wrong time for you my freeze sales have taken a slump. My usual supplier Mr Siberia is unable to  export the ingredients including minus 15 to 20 upper air temperatures and severe windchill as you have sat and blocked the way. 

Now we have had a good relationship last year when you headed in the right direction and I had exceptional end of season profits. 

In view of this I have had good offers from Mr Greenland and Mr Scandinavia who are quite happy to occupy you for the next few weeks so I can have have a chance to boost my end of season sales and win my customers back. My partners ECM, GFS, ICON and CFS will be more than happy to lift you and roll you out there on their new models. 

I hope we can keep our good relationship and you will hand in your tenancy notice in the coming few days, 

Kind regards WINTER SEASON

[Leon1]

3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

i refer you to our 1 and only 'snowfall' of this 'winter'

My one and only snowfall of this winter, in a city, at 60 metres ASL:

Not such a bad winter after all.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

My one and only snowfall of this winter, in a city, at 60 metres ASL:

Not such a bad winter after all.

How deep and how long did it stay on the ground?

[Don]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Remember though with the MJO, because it will be months end by the time any blocking occurs, we should be factoring in the much toned down March analogue.

Too little, too late?

[Weathizard]

That PV is a total joke, how does it just KEEP strengthening?? The models keep showing signs of it weakening but it simply refuses to do it

[Leon1]

Just now, booferking said:

How deep and how long did it stay on the ground?

20cm on the patio and lasted very nicely and kept its depth well for 2 days. Slow thaw the next day from the sun and was sadly washed away due to heavy rain on the Sunday night. (It fell on Thursday evening) If it hadn't rained it probably would have stayed around for 1 or 2 more days.

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

That PV is a total joke, how does it just KEEP strengthening?? The models keep showing signs of it weakening but it simply refuses to do it

Depends what output you use its losing its grip but late in the season again.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Too little, too late?

That anomaly is barely worth it, wouldn't register as heights at all, however, i haven't got the website than has ENSO composites built in to the MJO analogues outside of winter months so it might be a stronger one with a Nino, it usually is.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That anomaly is barely worth it, wouldn't register as heights at all, however, i haven't got the website than has ENSO composites built in to the MJO analogues outside of winter months so it might be a stronger one with a Nino, it usually is.

So it could be that it’s too late for the MJO to assist with cold during March, although maybe subject to how it reacts with Nino?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Don said:

So it could be that it’s too late for the MJO to assist with cold during March, although maybe subject to how it reacts with Nino?

I don't really know much about it TBH, other than ENSO can interfere with the MJO signal (stands to reason being as they are both tropical, just the MJO is an intra-seasonal teleconnection where as ENSO cycles can sometimes last upto 5 years, i think Nino enhances its global effect though looking at that aforementioned site i used to have bookmarked and Nina lessens it (i think - don't hold me to it!), Could really do with Stewart or Lorenzo or someone to tell us if they think it can do the job or not.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I don't really know much about it TBH, other than ENSO can interfere with the MJO signal (stands to reason being as they are both tropical, just the MJO is an intra-seasonal teleconnection where as ENSO cycles can sometimes last upto 5 years, i think Nino enhances its global effect though looking at that aforementioned site i used to have bookmarked and Nina lessens it (i think - don't hold me to it!), Could really do with Stewart or Lorenzo or someone to tell us if they think it can do the job or not.

Thanks for the reply.  It would be good to hear Stewart/Lorenzo’s latest views.