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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    After all that! Britain to be savaged by dead sheep??

    image.thumb.png.0954f84be78568e91784c94fd8fe78a8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    gfs-0-228.png?12gfs-7-228.png?12
    not going to make it on this run the block is slap bang over the UK  unfortunately is a dirty high

    Whats clearly coming into view is the mjo push, now will it be enough push, i'm not sure who has performed better on levels of amplification this year, but we need the gfs to be more in line with its slightly better mjocast. A big eye on what the heights are coming up against now aswell, lots of clutter to the North right now bringing it to a halt.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    At the range it is showing I wouldn't be taking any detail seriously at all but the continuing trend of trying to build the pressure further north is a pleasing one to see from a coldies point of view. I would love machine there could be some stonking ensemble runs for the extended period in the set later.. 

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Banter score 2

    Input score 0

    Input score 0-3 IQ score

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    So the cold plunge spreading west on the 6z is now transferring SE on the 12z. With some slightly colder uppers pushing down from the NW, what a difference 6 hours makes, just watch the 18s bring it further west again. 

    gfs-1-384.png

    2uejxx2_th.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

    So the cold plunge spreading west on the 6z is now transferring SE on the 12z. With some slightly colder uppers pushing down from the NW, what a difference 6 hours makes, just watch the 18s bring it further west again. 

    gfs-1-384.png

    2uejxx2_th.jpg

    I tell you what, I have a good feeling we will see some cold weather..in MARCH!!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
    20 minutes ago, March said:

    It’s like saying “Why is Barbados getting all our summer weather year after year”. 

    I suppose I meant propensity for colder than average winters in N.America, since about 2013. Not all the time, in every winter, since then, of course, but there has seemed to be a general propensity for the pacific jet to plunge deep into US bringing cold weather in winters of last 5 years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    8 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    Which year though?

    That's above / beyond my paygrade..sorry?

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    No joy this time on the GEFS.

    image.thumb.png.3ce5f8f098488d72585e22e35d1ce235.png

    Gutted.

    Following the EPS as ever.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    No joy this time on the GEFS.

    image.thumb.png.3ce5f8f098488d72585e22e35d1ce235.png

    Gutted.

    You’ve been gutted a lot this winter, how do you have any guts left at this point ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    I'm not sure whether the meds on here are running low since November!! I'd agree we all need to clutch at straws but the spin on the current output with regards to cold is making me dizzy.dry and mild is the theme which for me is better than some rank frosty high.Its all or nothing in my eyes and given the time of year if there's zero snow let's have some unseasonably mild weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    No joy this time on the GEFS.

    image.thumb.png.3ce5f8f098488d72585e22e35d1ce235.png

    Gutted.

    It looks quite similar to the 6z still? Only thing better was the control going very cold I think

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    No joy this time on the GEFS.

    image.thumb.png.3ce5f8f098488d72585e22e35d1ce235.png

    Gutted.

    Landed on another snake instead of a ladder!

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    Just now, Weathizard said:

    You’ve been gutted a lot this winter, how do you have any guts left at this point ? 

    True!...he keeps coming back for more even though there's been so many 'game over's' this winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey or Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey or Manchester
    Just now, Leon1 said:

    It looks quite similar to the 6z still? Only thing better was the control going very cold I think

    the control on the previous run looked great but no support or intra run consistency surely means just an outlier - are we really thinking it was a trendsetter and it will show again ..?

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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    The big stand out on the GEFS is dry, Mid latitude high prominent as has been for some time now

    Screenshot_20190212-174559.png

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